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Asteroid Collision



 
 
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  #1  
Old September 2nd 03, 01:12 PM
Gavin Whittaker
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Default Asteroid Collision

In uk.sci.astronomy Gareth Slee writted:
: Million to One chance of a collision apparently.
: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3200019.stm

from which:

"The chances of a catastrophe are likely to become even slimmer once more
measurements of the asteroid's orbit have been made."

If this is true, shouldn't astronomers increase the number of
measurements? If we look REALLY hard, we might be able to push it into
Jupiter.
Schrodinger had nothing on this one...


ATB, Gavin


  #2  
Old September 2nd 03, 01:59 PM
Henry
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Default Asteroid Collision

"Gavin Whittaker" wrote

If this is true, shouldn't astronomers increase the number of

measurements?

It was only discovered just over a week ago, give them a bit of time and
they will.

There's over 10 years before it comes near!


  #3  
Old September 2nd 03, 02:36 PM
Stephen Tonkin
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Default Asteroid Collision

Pete Lawrence wrote:
Schrodinger had nothing on this one...


I'm uncertain about this Gavin.


Make up your mind, Pete - he either did or he didn't.

Best,
Stephen

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  #4  
Old September 2nd 03, 02:51 PM
Paul
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Default Asteroid Collision

It might be that each time we take a measurement it either will hit the
Earth or it will miss it. Therefore we should stop anyone taking any more
measurments when we have one that states it won't hit the earth. Just
looking at it could spell doom.

Paul

"Gavin Whittaker" wrote in message
...
In uk.sci.astronomy Gareth Slee writted:
: Million to One chance of a collision apparently.
: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3200019.stm

from which:

"The chances of a catastrophe are likely to become even slimmer once more
measurements of the asteroid's orbit have been made."

If this is true, shouldn't astronomers increase the number of
measurements? If we look REALLY hard, we might be able to push it into
Jupiter.
Schrodinger had nothing on this one...


ATB, Gavin




  #5  
Old September 2nd 03, 04:12 PM
Paul B
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Default Asteroid Collision

But you know what Terry Pratchett said about 1 in a million odds ! . . . . .
..There're a dead cert !!!

So if the 1 in 909,000 goes up to 1 in 1,000,000, I might take up that £10
insurance offer ;-)

Best wishes and 10 years of clear, dark skies.

--

/Paul B, York, UK.
http://homepages.tesco.net/paul.buglass/astrohome.htm


"Gareth Slee" wrote in message
...
Million to One chance of a collision apparently.

Better odds than winning the lottery tho' ;-)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3200019.stm


--
Gareth Slee

http://www.garethslee.com
http://www.lapie.com




  #6  
Old September 2nd 03, 04:27 PM
Brian Tung
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Default Asteroid Collision

Gavin Whittaker wrote:
In uk.sci.astronomy Gareth Slee writted:
: Million to One chance of a collision apparently.
: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3200019.stm

from which:

"The chances of a catastrophe are likely to become even slimmer once more
measurements of the asteroid's orbit have been made."

If this is true, shouldn't astronomers increase the number of
measurements? If we look REALLY hard, we might be able to push it into
Jupiter.


A possible interpretation: The current odds are 1 in a million, based
on very tentative measurements. Once better measurements are recorded,
it turns out that the odds will become either

1. One in a billion, since the reduced error in measurements are
now significantly less than the predicted "miss"; or

2. Around 99.9 percent, since the predicted "miss" is essentially
zero.

If we think there's a one in a million chance of outcome 2, and the
rest of the time, outcome 1 happens, then our best estimate of the odds
right now is

(999,999/1,000,000)*(1/1,000,000,000) + (1/1,000,000)*(999/1,000)

which is very close to one in a million. Note that it is very likely
that the odds of a collision will drop a lot, but that is balanced by
a tiny probability that it will become a virtual certainty.

Brian Tung
The Astronomy Corner at http://astro.isi.edu/
Unofficial C5+ Home Page at http://astro.isi.edu/c5plus/
The PleiadAtlas Home Page at http://astro.isi.edu/pleiadatlas/
My Own Personal FAQ (SAA) at http://astro.isi.edu/reference/faq.txt
  #7  
Old September 2nd 03, 04:51 PM
Martin Frey
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Default Asteroid Collision

Gavin Whittaker wrote:

Schrodinger had nothing on ...


What a truly appalling thought.

Cheers

Martin

--------------
Martin Frey
N 51 02 E 0 47
--------------
  #8  
Old September 2nd 03, 07:25 PM
mike ring
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Default Asteroid Collision

Stephen Tonkin wrote in
:

Pete Lawrence wrote:
Schrodinger had nothing on this one...


I'm uncertain about this Gavin.


Make up your mind, Pete - he either did or he didn't.

Not yet,

mike (I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure) r
  #9  
Old September 2nd 03, 07:43 PM
Paul Schlyter
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Default Asteroid Collision

In article ,
Gavin Whittaker wrote:

In uk.sci.astronomy Gareth Slee writted:
: Million to One chance of a collision apparently.
: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3200019.stm

from which:

"The chances of a catastrophe are likely to become even slimmer once
more measurements of the asteroid's orbit have been made."

If this is true, shouldn't astronomers increase the number of
measurements?


WELL, WHAT DO YOU THINK THEY'RE DOING? Do you think they'll never
ever make another observation of this object? Duh!

However, to be as useful as possible, the observation needs to be
as much separated in time as possible. And there are two ways
to accomplish this:

1. Make further observations of the object during a long time.

2. Identify the object in images on films or plates taken a long time
ago.

2. is much faster than 1. .....


If we look REALLY hard, we might be able to push it into
Jupiter.


:-) .....no! The uncertaintly of the orbit isn't quite THAT large....

Schrodinger had nothing on this one...


ATB, Gavin

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e-mail: pausch at stockholm dot bostream dot se
WWW: http://www.stjarnhimlen.se/
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  #10  
Old September 2nd 03, 08:31 PM
lal_truckee
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Default Asteroid Collision

Stephen Tonkin wrote:

Pete Lawrence wrote:

Schrodinger had nothing on this one...



I'm uncertain about this Gavin.



Make up your mind, Pete - he either did or he didn't.


Not yet he either did or he didn't.
Someone open the box and let's take a peek ...

 




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