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Russian Meteor Strike
wrote in message
... On Sunday, February 17, 2013 6:06:53 AM UTC-8, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote: "Stuf4" wrote in message ... From snidely (dps): Stuf4 submitted this idea : From David Spain: snip Whoa. Imagine if that happened a few decades ago during the height of Cold War tension. Could easily have been misinterpreted as the work of Ronnie Raygun. Wrong orbit for that, too. Minute Man III missiles aren't designed for a grazing trajectory. Yes, that is *exactly* the rational, measured response that we could have expected. "Wait comrade! According to my calculations this grazing trajectory could not have come from the Yankee Imperialists!" Yes, it probably is. The Soviets may have been paranoid, but they weren't stupid. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov He judged correctly that a US attack wouldn't look like what the data was showing him. It's highly likely that had this happened during the Cold War a person in a similar position would have done the same thing: 1) Hmm.. wrong trajectory 2) Single contact 3) Moving way too fast This btw, also assumes that it was detectable. It's quite possible given the trajectory and speed it wouldn't have been. Hahah. ~ CT -- Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/ CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net Um, Greg, 1983 WAS during the Cold War- actually right at the hight of it: KAL 007 had just been shot down earlier that month (Sept 1983). Tention was VERY high at the time. Umm, Exactly my point. We don't have to imagine, we have an example of a Soviet reaction to what they thought was a possible First Strike. They didn't respond. -- Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/ CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net |
#22
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Russian Meteor Strike
"Stuf4" wrote in message ... From Greg Moo "Stuf4" wrote in message ... From snidely (dps): Stuf4 submitted this idea : From David Spain: snip Whoa. Imagine if that happened a few decades ago during the height of Cold War tension. Could easily have been misinterpreted as the work of Ronnie Raygun. Wrong orbit for that, too. Minute Man III missiles aren't designed for a grazing trajectory. Yes, that is *exactly* the rational, measured response that we could have expected. "Wait comrade! According to my calculations this grazing trajectory could not have come from the Yankee Imperialists!" Yes, it probably is. The Soviets may have been paranoid, but they weren't stupid. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov He judged correctly that a US attack wouldn't look like what the data was showing him. It's highly likely that had this happened during the Cold War a person in a similar position would have done the same thing: 1) Hmm.. wrong trajectory 2) Single contact 3) Moving way too fast This btw, also assumes that it was detectable. It's quite possible given the trajectory and speed it wouldn't have been. Petrov was dealing with indications from a warning system and absolutely nothing for physical evidence outside of that. Yes, and you're the one that claimed they'd basically ignore the wrong trajectory as a false signal. I pointed out in a similar case, they correctly interpreted bad data as exactly that. Friday morning was an *actual strike*, with significant damage and casualties. And yet, again, the first rational response would be: "Really, no mushroom cloud, ONE missile? Yeah, something's up, but let's not go nuclear just yet. Let's wait until we have actual launch confirmation." There's this thing most people recognize called the "fog of war". So detected or not, there are hundreds of phone calls from citizens saying they're under attack. Damage is confirmed. Hospitals are reporting in. Really, you think 100s of citizens are going to be calling the Soviet military command? You all can talk as though you know how this would have played out. I maintain that it could easily have been misinterpreted. And I'll maintain you're wrong since we have evidence of the Soviets acting in a rational manner during the cold-war, even during one of the most tense periods of it. Hahah. ~ CT As to the notion that Petrov "saved the world", that seems like some thick hyperbole. His decision was regarding whether or not to report this detection up the chain. There were levels above him who had the job to correlate information and could easily have figured out it was a false alarm. If one person is going to be credited with saving the world, I'd be inclined to go with someone like Vasili Arkhipov. But that's a completely different situation. ~ CT -- Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/ CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net |
#23
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Russian Meteor Strike
On Feb 15, 2:34*am, " wrote:
Apparently a small chunk of the planetoid flying by Earth has struck a Russian town. Over 400 people injured, no deaths reported yet. http://edition.cnn.com/2013/02/15/wo...eteor-shower/i... It was attacking us from a different direction, though perhaps still related to the Sirius Oort cloud. |
#24
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Russian Meteor Strike
From Greg Moo
"Stuf4" wrote in message snip Petrov was dealing with indications from a warning system and absolutely nothing for physical evidence outside of that. Yes, and you're the one that claimed they'd basically ignore the wrong trajectory as a false signal. I pointed out in a similar case, they correctly interpreted bad data as exactly that. I was not at all being serious in suggesting that the Soviet reply would be measured and rational. I was attempting to indicate the *exact opposite*. Friday morning was an *actual strike*, with significant damage and casualties. And yet, again, the first rational response would be: "Really, no mushroom cloud, ONE missile? Yeah, something's up, but let's not go nuclear just yet. Let's wait until we have actual launch confirmation." I would certainly hope that is the kind of thing that would have happened. But I don't see that kind of clarity of anyone thinking "let's not go nuclear". The very crux of the issue is discernment of all these people who *already believe* that they've been attacked. Information is VERY incomplete. These were the days before YouTube. They did not have the luxury of pulling up a website and looking at fresh video to see exactly what this looked like. And even *with* YouTube, there is the delay of people posting their videos, during which time the command authority is needing to sort facts out. The wealth of information comes in over the phone, and they have to filter out what these people are thinking had just happened to them. There's this thing most people recognize called the "fog of war". So detected or not, there are hundreds of phone calls from citizens saying they're under attack. Damage is confirmed. Hospitals are reporting in. Really, you think 100s of citizens are going to be calling the Soviet military command? I would expect the hundreds of calls to be to the police. You all can talk as though you know how this would have played out. I maintain that it could easily have been misinterpreted. And I'll maintain you're wrong since we have evidence of the Soviets acting in a rational manner during the cold-war, even during one of the most tense periods of it. It is certainly possible that a meteor strike would have clearly been understood to have been a meteor strike. That is exactly what I would have hoped would have happened. Stepping back from the realm of what we cannot know with absolute certainty because it didn't happen... It would be very interesting to learn the *plan* that either side had with regards to discerning the difference between a giant meteor impact vs an ICBM. There was a definite possibility that a meteor trajectory would have come in from the same general direction, and that it could even impact with a huge mushroom cloud. Did the US have a plan in place? Did the Soviets? Did they coordinate? I can imagine an effort between US & USSR scientific communities, if not the militaries. And here we are decades later. I believe the public deserves to know. We've been discussing the Cold War as though the nuke retaliation threat has totally disappeared. Imagine if Friday's meteor strike had hit North Korea. Israel. India. Any of several places where the tensions are a lot higher than Russia of today. ~ CT |
#25
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Russian Meteor Strike
From me:
There was a definite possibility that a meteor trajectory would have come in from the same general direction, and that it could even impact with a huge mushroom cloud. A bigger point... It would not need to come in from any different direction nor have any larger kinetic energy. A simple change in just the *place* of impact could have made a huge difference. Say it was 30 years ago and that it was a direct hit on Moscow, Kiev, Leningrad, etc! That could have been *very* ugly. ~ CT |
#26
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Russian Meteor Strike
On Sunday, February 17, 2013 2:34:32 PM UTC-8, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:
"Stuf4" wrote in message ... From Greg Moo "Stuf4" wrote in message ... From snidely (dps): Stuf4 submitted this idea : From David Spain: snip Whoa. Imagine if that happened a few decades ago during the height of Cold War tension. Could easily have been misinterpreted as the work of Ronnie Raygun. Wrong orbit for that, too. Minute Man III missiles aren't designed for a grazing trajectory. Yes, that is *exactly* the rational, measured response that we could have expected. "Wait comrade! According to my calculations this grazing trajectory could not have come from the Yankee Imperialists!" Yes, it probably is. The Soviets may have been paranoid, but they weren't stupid. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov He judged correctly that a US attack wouldn't look like what the data was showing him. It's highly likely that had this happened during the Cold War a person in a similar position would have done the same thing: 1) Hmm.. wrong trajectory 2) Single contact 3) Moving way too fast This btw, also assumes that it was detectable. It's quite possible given the trajectory and speed it wouldn't have been. Petrov was dealing with indications from a warning system and absolutely nothing for physical evidence outside of that. Yes, and you're the one that claimed they'd basically ignore the wrong trajectory as a false signal. I pointed out in a similar case, they correctly interpreted bad data as exactly that. Friday morning was an *actual strike*, with significant damage and casualties. And yet, again, the first rational response would be: "Really, no mushroom cloud, ONE missile? Yeah, something's up, but let's not go nuclear just yet. Let's wait until we have actual launch confirmation." There's this thing most people recognize called the "fog of war". So detected or not, there are hundreds of phone calls from citizens saying they're under attack. Damage is confirmed. Hospitals are reporting in. Really, you think 100s of citizens are going to be calling the Soviet military command? You all can talk as though you know how this would have played out. I maintain that it could easily have been misinterpreted.. And I'll maintain you're wrong since we have evidence of the Soviets acting in a rational manner during the cold-war, even during one of the most tense periods of it. Perhaps an even better example than 1983 is 1962. On October 24 1962, during the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Soviet Union launched what was intended to be a probe to Mars. The rocket's upper stage exploded and debris was detected by American and Canadian watchers along the DEW line. But it was fairly quickly determined to not be a missile attack. |
#27
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Russian Meteor Strike
On Mon, 18 Feb 2013 00:56:06 -0800 (PST), "
wrote: On Sunday, February 17, 2013 2:34:32 PM UTC-8, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote: "Stuf4" wrote in message ... From Greg Moo "Stuf4" wrote in message ... From snidely (dps): Stuf4 submitted this idea : From David Spain: snip Whoa. Imagine if that happened a few decades ago during the height of Cold War tension. Could easily have been misinterpreted as the work of Ronnie Raygun. Wrong orbit for that, too. Minute Man III missiles aren't designed for a grazing trajectory. Yes, that is *exactly* the rational, measured response that we could have expected. "Wait comrade! According to my calculations this grazing trajectory could not have come from the Yankee Imperialists!" Yes, it probably is. The Soviets may have been paranoid, but they weren't stupid. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov He judged correctly that a US attack wouldn't look like what the data was showing him. It's highly likely that had this happened during the Cold War a person in a similar position would have done the same thing: 1) Hmm.. wrong trajectory 2) Single contact 3) Moving way too fast This btw, also assumes that it was detectable. It's quite possible given the trajectory and speed it wouldn't have been. Petrov was dealing with indications from a warning system and absolutely nothing for physical evidence outside of that. Yes, and you're the one that claimed they'd basically ignore the wrong trajectory as a false signal. I pointed out in a similar case, they correctly interpreted bad data as exactly that. Friday morning was an *actual strike*, with significant damage and casualties. And yet, again, the first rational response would be: "Really, no mushroom cloud, ONE missile? Yeah, something's up, but let's not go nuclear just yet. Let's wait until we have actual launch confirmation." There's this thing most people recognize called the "fog of war". So detected or not, there are hundreds of phone calls from citizens saying they're under attack. Damage is confirmed. Hospitals are reporting in. Really, you think 100s of citizens are going to be calling the Soviet military command? You all can talk as though you know how this would have played out. I maintain that it could easily have been misinterpreted. And I'll maintain you're wrong since we have evidence of the Soviets acting in a rational manner during the cold-war, even during one of the most tense periods of it. Perhaps an even better example than 1983 is 1962. On October 24 1962, during the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Soviet Union launched what was intended to be a probe to Mars. The rocket's upper stage exploded and debris was detected by American and Canadian watchers along the DEW line. But it was fairly quickly determined to not be a missile attack. Well, Richard Hoaxland, er, Hoagland has now declared it a Russian shootdown of a giant extraterrestrial craft, so the joke's on all of us, it seems. |
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Russian Meteor Strike
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#29
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Russian Meteor Strike
On Wednesday, February 20, 2013 8:37:57 AM UTC-5, Jeff Findley wrote:
In article , says... Well, Richard Hoaxland, er, Hoagland has now declared it a Russian shootdown of a giant extraterrestrial craft, so the joke's on all of us, it seems. That guy is a dumb@ss, plain and simple. Jeff -- Wow! I looked at "Hoaxland's" website. He's the very definition of attention whore. What a crock. |
#30
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Russian Meteor Strike
On Wed, 20 Feb 2013 07:57:25 -0800 (PST), Dean
wrote: On Wednesday, February 20, 2013 8:37:57 AM UTC-5, Jeff Findley wrote: In article , says... Well, Richard Hoaxland, er, Hoagland has now declared it a Russian shootdown of a giant extraterrestrial craft, so the joke's on all of us, it seems. That guy is a dumb@ss, plain and simple. Jeff -- Wow! I looked at "Hoaxland's" website. He's the very definition of attention whore. What a crock. Oh yeah. Completely out of his mind. |
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