Death Sentence for the Hubble?

Greg Hennessy wrote:

There are no hard numbers. Only various estimates, which are coming in
at between 1 and 2 billion dollars.

If you have *hard* numbers to present, we're listening.

I could not find a detailed estimate for the
robotic Hubble mission, but I have found
estimates for the past shuttle missions:

Hubble Servicing Mission 3A = $136 million, source:
http://hubble.nasa.gov/a_pdf/news/facts/FS32.pdf

Hubble Servicing Mission SM-2:
"NASA has spent approximately $347 million on
the Second Servicing Mission, reflecting the costs of
building and testing replacement instruments, ground
operations and other related activities. The Shuttle
flight will cost $448 million. Total = $795 Million"
source: http://hubble.nasa.gov/a_pdf/news/facts/hst-cost.pdf

NASA Cost Estimating Web Site:
http://www1.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/hamaker.html

Simple and yet VERY USEFUL cost calculator:
http://www1.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/SVLCM.html
According to the calculator the development cost of a
two ton "unmanned Earth orbital spacecraft" is $252
million, it is independent of the number of spacecraft
that are built, and it is about four times greater than
the cost of building one spacecraft, which is $67 million.

MY CONCLUSION:
1. The $2 billion figure is a gross exaggeration.
2. Building and launching three identical telerobots
costs as much as the development cost, so it
makes economic sense to launch three Dextre
telerobots and keep them busy.
__________________________________________________ ________

"NASA realized that if a shuttle crew could service HST, it
could be maintained and upgraded indefinitely. So from the
beginning, Hubble was designed to be modular and astronaut
friendly. The modular design allows NASA to periodically
re-equip HST with state-of-the-art scientific instruments
— giving the Telescope exciting new capabilities..."
source: http://hubble.nasa.gov/a_pdf/news/sm3b_composite.pdf

In article ,
Andrew Nowicki wrote:
If you have *hard* numbers to present, we're listening.

MY CONCLUSION:

You are the one who claimed only hard numbers!

Another useful calculator:
Mission Operations Cost Model,
http://www1.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/MOCM.html

According to the calculator, if the investment cost
is $300 million, the annual cost of maintaining and
upgrading ground systems, mission control, tracking,
telemetry, command functions, mission planning, data
reduction and analysis, crew training and related
activities is about 9 million dollars.

Where are your numbers?

In article ,
Andrew Nowicki wrote:
Dextre costs $154 million (US$).

Uh, no. The $154M is the cost of the *first phase* of the project, up to
Critical Design Review. Pre-CDR work is generally only a modest fraction
of the cost of a space project, especially one done in a hurry.

Its mass is about 1662kg. At
10000$/kg, launching Dextre into low Earth orbit will cost about
$17 million.

The only current US launcher you can maybe buy for $17M is a Pegasus,
which has about 1/4 of that payload. (Government projects are not allowed
to buy foreign launches.)
--
"Think outside the box -- the box isn't our friend." | Henry Spencer
-- George Herbert |

Andrew Nowicki wrote:

PS. Imagine that hundreds of cheap telerobots have
been launched into cislunar space. High school volunteers
control them via Internet and use them to mine the
Moon and build orbital greenhouses...

Let us figure out how much it would cost.
One Dextre with the grapple arm costs $154 million
and weights about 2 tons. According to the calculator
(http://www1.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/SVLCM.html) its cost
of manufacturing is about $41 million. The cost
of launching 2 ton spacecraft is $20 million.
According to another calculator
(http://www1.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/MOCM.html) its
annual mission operations cost is about $9 million.

The total cost of building one hundred Dextre telerobots,
launching them into low Earth orbit, and using
them for one year is: $154M + (99 x ($41M + $9M)) =
$5,104 million = about $5 billion -- less than one
third of the annual NASA budget! Electrodynamic tethers
can provide cheap thrust in the low Earth orbit. There
will be additional cost of building a network of
terrestrial transponders -- perhaps $100 million.

I cannot think of a better way to spend $5 billion.

Andrew Nowicki wrote:

PS. Imagine that hundreds of cheap telerobots have
been launched into cislunar space. High school volunteers
control them via Internet and use them to mine the
Moon and build orbital greenhouses...

Let us figure out how much it would cost.
One Dextre with the grapple arm costs $154 million
and weights about 2 tons. According to the calculator
(http://www1.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/SVLCM.html) its cost
of manufacturing is about $41 million. The cost
of launching 2 ton spacecraft is $20 million.
According to another calculator
(http://www1.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/MOCM.html) its
annual mission operations cost is about $9 million.

The total cost of building one hundred Dextre telerobots,
launching them into low Earth orbit, and using
them for one year is: $154M + (99 x ($41M + $20M + $9M)) =
$7,084 million = about $7 billion -- less than one
half of the annual NASA budget! Electrodynamic tethers
can provide cheap thrust in the low Earth orbit. There
will be additional cost of building a network of
terrestrial transponders -- perhaps $100 million.

I cannot think of a better way to spend $7 billion.

Andrew Nowicki wrote:

PS. Imagine that hundreds of cheap telerobots have
been launched into cislunar space. High school volunteers
control them via Internet and use them to mine the
Moon and build orbital greenhouses...

Let us figure out how much it would cost.
One Dextre with the grapple arm costs $154 million
and weights about 2 tons. According to the calculator
(http://www1.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/SVLCM.html) its cost
of manufacturing is about $41 million. The cost
of launching 2 ton spacecraft is $20 million.
According to another calculator
(http://www1.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/MOCM.html) its
annual mission operations cost is about $9 million.

The total cost of building one hundred Dextre telerobots,
launching them into low Earth orbit, and using
them for one year is: $154M - $41M + (100 x ($41M + $20M + $9M)) =
$7,113 million = about $7 billion -- less than one
half of the annual NASA budget! Electrodynamic tethers
can provide cheap thrust in the low Earth orbit. There
will be additional cost of building a network of
terrestrial transponders -- perhaps $100 million.

I cannot think of a better way to spend $7 billion.

Andrew Nowicki wrote:

Dextre costs $154 million (US$).

Henry Spencer wrote:

Uh, no. The $154M is the cost of the *first phase* of the project, up to
Critical Design Review. Pre-CDR work is generally only a modest fraction
of the cost of a space project, especially one done in a hurry.

But... Dextre is finished and flight-qualified.
MDA (the maker of Dextre) has entered into a Firm Fixed Price
Contract with NASA at US$154 million to provide Dextre plus
the grapple arm and other accessories. MDA still works on the
grapple arm (which costs $25 million) and the accessories.

Andrew Nowicki wrote:

Its mass is about 1662kg. At 10000$/kg, launching Dextre into low
Earth orbit will cost about $17 million.

Henry Spencer wrote:

The only current US launcher you can maybe buy for $17M is a Pegasus,
which has about 1/4 of that payload. (Government projects are not allowed
to buy foreign launches.)

The total mass of Dextre, the grapple arm, new instruments
for the Hubble (COS, WFC3, batteries, and 6 gyros),
ejection module which houses Dextre, de-orbit module,
and everything else is 23,000 lbs.

On Wed, 23 Feb 2005 18:34:55 +0100, in a place far, far away, Andrew
Nowicki made the phosphor on my monitor glow in
such a way as to indicate that:


MY CONCLUSION:
1. The $2 billion figure is a gross exaggeration.
2. Building and launching three identical telerobots
costs as much as the development cost, so it
makes economic sense to launch three Dextre
telerobots and keep them busy.

Do you ever come to a CONCLUSION that doesn't match your preordained
prejudices?

On Wed, 23 Feb 2005 20:18:22 +0100, in a place far, far away, Andrew
Nowicki made the phosphor on my monitor glow in
such a way as to indicate that:

The total cost of building one hundred Dextre telerobots,
launching them into low Earth orbit, and using
them for one year is: $154M + (99 x ($41M + $20M + $9M)) =
$7,084 million = about $7 billion -- less than one
half of the annual NASA budget! Electrodynamic tethers
can provide cheap thrust in the low Earth orbit. There
will be additional cost of building a network of
terrestrial transponders -- perhaps $100 million.

I cannot think of a better way to spend $7 billion.

Fortunately, most sane people can.