....Middle East Oil Reserves Dramatically Inflated, Perhaps Doubled!

Most people aren't aware that OPEC sets member quotas
based on estimated reserves of oil. Which means that
the higher a country estimates it's reserves, the more
oil it's allowed to pump. These papers shows the actual
reserves may be roughly half the amount generally
claimed.



How Credible Are Proven Oil Reserves:
The Case of Iran, Russia & Canada

"Among the principal beneficiaries of these revisions are Iran whose proven
reserves have gone up from 89.7 bb at the beginning of 2003 to130.7 bb in
2004 and then to 132.5 bb in 2005 and Russia from 48.6 bb to 69.1 bb and
then to 72.3 bb at a time when no major discoveries were reported in
these two countries in 2003 or 2004."
http://www.odac-info.org/assessments...5thNAEConf.pdf




MIDDLE EAST OIL - REALITY AND ILLUSION

"In 1985, Kuwait added 50% to its reported reserves although nothing
particular had changed in the oilfield. Three years later, Venezuela doubled
its reserves by the inclusion of long-known but not previously counted,
heavy oil reserves. That forced Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Iran and Iraq to
retaliate with massive increases to protect their OPEC quota, which
was based partly on reserves. Saudi Arabia followed in 1990 increasing
its reported reserves from 170 Gb to 257.5 Gb, an estimate that has
barely changed since, despite intervening production of some 37 Gb."
http://www.peakoil.net/Publications/...D_ILLUSION.pdf

Hi, "Jonathan". This is interesting but not new. And as it stands, it
has no past and thus no future. Could you append a brief annotated
reading list of publically accessible materials to this? I think
Kunstler,
The Long Emergency, might be such a resource, but I'd like to hear
opinions about its content. Which would be the annotation for this
book that I would like to see.

By providing this supplementary but very relevant further information,
you go far to improve your posting out of the general sound and fury
so prevalent here in usenet.

Thanks -- Martha Adams

"jonathan" wrote in message
...

Most people aren't aware that OPEC sets member quotas
based on estimated reserves of oil. Which means that
the higher a country estimates it's reserves, the more
oil it's allowed to pump. These papers shows the actual
reserves may be roughly half the amount generally
claimed.



How Credible Are Proven Oil Reserves:
The Case of Iran, Russia & Canada

"Among the principal beneficiaries of these revisions are Iran whose
proven
reserves have gone up from 89.7 bb at the beginning of 2003 to130.7 bb
in
2004 and then to 132.5 bb in 2005 and Russia from 48.6 bb to 69.1 bb
and
then to 72.3 bb at a time when no major discoveries were reported in
these two countries in 2003 or 2004."
http://www.odac-info.org/assessments...5thNAEConf.pdf




MIDDLE EAST OIL - REALITY AND ILLUSION

"In 1985, Kuwait added 50% to its reported reserves although nothing
particular had changed in the oilfield. Three years later, Venezuela
doubled
its reserves by the inclusion of long-known but not previously
counted,
heavy oil reserves. That forced Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Iran and Iraq to
retaliate with massive increases to protect their OPEC quota, which
was based partly on reserves. Saudi Arabia followed in 1990 increasing
its reported reserves from 170 Gb to 257.5 Gb, an estimate that has
barely changed since, despite intervening production of some 37 Gb."
http://www.peakoil.net/Publications/...D_ILLUSION.pdf

"Martha Adams" wrote in message
news:G_I1h.4926$Gg5.4624@trndny02...
Hi, "Jonathan". This is interesting but not new. And as it stands, it
has no past and thus no future. Could you append a brief annotated
reading list of publically accessible materials to this? I think
Kunstler,
The Long Emergency, might be such a resource, but I'd like to hear
opinions about its content. Which would be the annotation for this
book that I would like to see.

By providing this supplementary but very relevant further information,
you go far to improve your posting out of the general sound and fury so
prevalent here in usenet.

Thanks -- Martha Adams



Thanks for the suggestions. Maybe I should document
the mathematics of the oil production peak, which is soon
approaching. And in a way anyone can understand.

Most assume, as Kunstler says, that the peak merely means
we have half the world supply left. People visualize such trends
in a linear fashion, thinking oil prices will steadily increase, and
steadily encourage replacement sources of energy. A nice steady
bell curve. Or in particular, the Hubbert curve. Which is in fact an
exponential rate of decline.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert...#Hubbert_curve

But even this most pessimistic scenario falls short of predicting
the suddenness of the impending collapse when viewed from
a perspective of the chaos and complexity sciences.

Real world systems do not always follow such deterministic
behavior. Once the tipping point, or critical point as it's called
in chaos theory, is reached, the system can suddenly become
unstable and collapse almost overnight.

We would understand this non-linear behavior as a
typical 'panic-sell' situation. Or a bubble bursting.
For instance, the pessimistic Hubbert curve assumes the data
it's using is somewhat accurate. But my post about the political
interference in the reporting of oil reserves is trying to make a point.

Which is that once criticality is reached, out of ...nowhere
all these inaccuracies and problems are /flushed out/....at once.
And Lord knows how many other such unknowns are out
there, which will become known only at the worst possible time.
Shortly after the tipping point or peak. And it'll happen
in a single day.

And one day, out of the blue, a single event will set
off the Great Energy Panic. And fossil fuels will
disappear...overnight.. as a large scale energy source.

We've all seen this non-linear effect. For instance, in my
home of Miami, it's fascinating to watch the city react
to an approaching hurricane. Everyone watches, and
watches, then at a single moment, everyone at once
realizes it's really coming here. And in minutes the panic
ensues, the city goes from normal to a completely
cleaned out of supplies ...in a couple of hours.

The blackboard mathematics of old do not include this
real world behavior.

This panic effect means the fall will be far worse than
even the pessimistic exponential rate of decline.

But more like falling off a cliff.

Comments?


The Long Emergency
What's going to happen as we start running out of cheap gas to guzzle?
by James Howard Kunstler
http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0413-28.htm

s









"jonathan" wrote in message
...

Most people aren't aware that OPEC sets member quotas
based on estimated reserves of oil. Which means that
the higher a country estimates it's reserves, the more
oil it's allowed to pump. These papers shows the actual
reserves may be roughly half the amount generally
claimed.



How Credible Are Proven Oil Reserves:
The Case of Iran, Russia & Canada

"Among the principal beneficiaries of these revisions are Iran whose
proven
reserves have gone up from 89.7 bb at the beginning of 2003 to130.7 bb
in
2004 and then to 132.5 bb in 2005 and Russia from 48.6 bb to 69.1 bb
and
then to 72.3 bb at a time when no major discoveries were reported in
these two countries in 2003 or 2004."
http://www.odac-info.org/assessments...5thNAEConf.pdf




MIDDLE EAST OIL - REALITY AND ILLUSION

"In 1985, Kuwait added 50% to its reported reserves although nothing
particular had changed in the oilfield. Three years later, Venezuela
doubled
its reserves by the inclusion of long-known but not previously
counted,
heavy oil reserves. That forced Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Iran and Iraq to
retaliate with massive increases to protect their OPEC quota, which
was based partly on reserves. Saudi Arabia followed in 1990 increasing
its reported reserves from 170 Gb to 257.5 Gb, an estimate that has
barely changed since, despite intervening production of some 37 Gb."
http://www.peakoil.net/Publications/...D_ILLUSION.pdf

Hi, "Jonathan". I thought you missed my point but posted some
interesting information.

It is a problem in today's world that people do not read enough. An
annotated pointer, or several of them, related to your topic, both
shows that you have yourself acquired some information rather than
just spouting off the top of your head; and, it provides the intelligent
reader with accessible resources to understand your writings better.

Re collapse, I read your point as concerning the degradation to a
lower energy state of two structures:

One is a ball on an inclined slope. Simple; gradual. The ball moves
from higher energy to lower.

The other is a house of cards. (Doubly relevant here.) You disturb
a small part of it, a collapse develops whose character is hard to
guess in advance; but in a fairly quick process, it all comes down.
I think you have such a model in mind when you discuss the
character of an oil-shortage provoked collapse of a large economy.

Of course, one can always move to a quieter part of the world. A
story was around a few decades back, about some European who
foresaw World War II, and he thought he'd wisely be somewhere
else. So he moved to a quiet South Pacific island named
Guadalcanal.

Cheers -- Martha Adams


"jonathan" wrote in message
. ..

"Martha Adams" wrote in message
news:G_I1h.4926$Gg5.4624@trndny02...
Hi, "Jonathan". This is interesting but not new. And as it stands,
it
has no past and thus no future. Could you append a brief annotated
reading list of publically accessible materials to this? I think
Kunstler,
The Long Emergency, might be such a resource, but I'd like to hear
opinions about its content. Which would be the annotation for this
book that I would like to see.

By providing this supplementary but very relevant further
information,
you go far to improve your posting out of the general sound and fury
so
prevalent here in usenet.

Thanks -- Martha Adams



Thanks for the suggestions. Maybe I should document
the mathematics of the oil production peak, which is soon
approaching. And in a way anyone can understand.

Most assume, as Kunstler says, that the peak merely means
we have half the world supply left. People visualize such trends
in a linear fashion, thinking oil prices will steadily increase, and
steadily encourage replacement sources of energy. A nice steady
bell curve. Or in particular, the Hubbert curve. Which is in fact an
exponential rate of decline.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert...#Hubbert_curve

But even this most pessimistic scenario falls short of predicting
the suddenness of the impending collapse when viewed from
a perspective of the chaos and complexity sciences.

Real world systems do not always follow such deterministic
behavior. Once the tipping point, or critical point as it's called
in chaos theory, is reached, the system can suddenly become
unstable and collapse almost overnight.

We would understand this non-linear behavior as a
typical 'panic-sell' situation. Or a bubble bursting.
For instance, the pessimistic Hubbert curve assumes the data
it's using is somewhat accurate. But my post about the political
interference in the reporting of oil reserves is trying to make a
point.

Which is that once criticality is reached, out of ...nowhere
all these inaccuracies and problems are /flushed out/....at once.
And Lord knows how many other such unknowns are out
there, which will become known only at the worst possible time.
Shortly after the tipping point or peak. And it'll happen
in a single day.

And one day, out of the blue, a single event will set
off the Great Energy Panic. And fossil fuels will
disappear...overnight.. as a large scale energy source.

We've all seen this non-linear effect. For instance, in my
home of Miami, it's fascinating to watch the city react
to an approaching hurricane. Everyone watches, and
watches, then at a single moment, everyone at once
realizes it's really coming here. And in minutes the panic
ensues, the city goes from normal to a completely
cleaned out of supplies ...in a couple of hours.

The blackboard mathematics of old do not include this
real world behavior.

This panic effect means the fall will be far worse than
even the pessimistic exponential rate of decline.

But more like falling off a cliff.

Comments?


The Long Emergency
What's going to happen as we start running out of cheap gas to guzzle?
by James Howard Kunstler
http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0413-28.htm

s









"jonathan" wrote in message
...

Most people aren't aware that OPEC sets member quotas
based on estimated reserves of oil. Which means that
the higher a country estimates it's reserves, the more
oil it's allowed to pump. These papers shows the actual
reserves may be roughly half the amount generally
claimed.



How Credible Are Proven Oil Reserves:
The Case of Iran, Russia & Canada

"Among the principal beneficiaries of these revisions are Iran
whose
proven
reserves have gone up from 89.7 bb at the beginning of 2003 to130.7
bb
in
2004 and then to 132.5 bb in 2005 and Russia from 48.6 bb to 69.1
bb
and
then to 72.3 bb at a time when no major discoveries were reported
in
these two countries in 2003 or 2004."
http://www.odac-info.org/assessments...5thNAEConf.pdf




MIDDLE EAST OIL - REALITY AND ILLUSION

"In 1985, Kuwait added 50% to its reported reserves although
nothing
particular had changed in the oilfield. Three years later,
Venezuela
doubled
its reserves by the inclusion of long-known but not previously
counted,
heavy oil reserves. That forced Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Iran and Iraq to
retaliate with massive increases to protect their OPEC quota, which
was based partly on reserves. Saudi Arabia followed in 1990
increasing
its reported reserves from 170 Gb to 257.5 Gb, an estimate that has
barely changed since, despite intervening production of some 37
Gb."
http://www.peakoil.net/Publications/...D_ILLUSION.pdf

On Tue, 31 Oct 2006 17:34:11 -0500, jonathan wrote:


"Martha Adams" wrote in message
news:G_I1h.4926$Gg5.4624@trndny02...
Hi, "Jonathan". This is interesting but not new. And as it stands, it
has no past and thus no future. Could you append a brief annotated
reading list of publically accessible materials to this? I think
Kunstler,
The Long Emergency, might be such a resource, but I'd like to hear
opinions about its content. Which would be the annotation for this book
that I would like to see.

By providing this supplementary but very relevant further information,
you go far to improve your posting out of the general sound and fury so
prevalent here in usenet.

Thanks -- Martha Adams



Thanks for the suggestions. Maybe I should document the mathematics of the
oil production peak, which is soon approaching. And in a way anyone can
understand.

Most assume, as Kunstler says, that the peak merely means we have half the
world supply left. People visualize such trends in a linear fashion,
thinking oil prices will steadily increase, and steadily encourage
replacement sources of energy. A nice steady bell curve. Or in particular,
the Hubbert curve. Which is in fact an exponential rate of decline.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert...#Hubbert_curve

But even this most pessimistic scenario falls short of predicting the
suddenness of the impending collapse when viewed from a perspective of the
chaos and complexity sciences.

Real world systems do not always follow such deterministic behavior. Once
the tipping point, or critical point as it's called in chaos theory, is
reached, the system can suddenly become unstable and collapse almost
overnight.

We would understand this non-linear behavior as a typical 'panic-sell'
situation. Or a bubble bursting. For instance, the pessimistic Hubbert
curve assumes the data it's using is somewhat accurate. But my post about
the political interference in the reporting of oil reserves is trying to
make a point.

Which is that once criticality is reached, out of ...nowhere all these
inaccuracies and problems are /flushed out/....at once. And Lord knows how
many other such unknowns are out there, which will become known only at
the worst possible time. Shortly after the tipping point or peak. And
it'll happen in a single day.

And one day, out of the blue, a single event will set off the Great Energy
Panic. And fossil fuels will disappear...overnight.. as a large scale
energy source.

We've all seen this non-linear effect. For instance, in my home of Miami,
it's fascinating to watch the city react to an approaching hurricane.
Everyone watches, and watches, then at a single moment, everyone at once
realizes it's really coming here. And in minutes the panic ensues, the
city goes from normal to a completely cleaned out of supplies ...in a
couple of hours.

You are, of course, talking about catastrophe theory here, which describes
cases where a general solution to a set of differential equations is valid
only over a limited time domain. When you move out of the domain in which
that solution exists, poof!

As I understand it, the situation typically arises when a set
of differential equations appears to have multiple stable solutions, but
as time goes by two of the solutions turn out to be separate branches of
the same one. A plot of the solution space, with time on the horizontal
axis, might, for example, show a circle. There are two apparently
separate stable points on the circle (upper branch and lower branch), but
as time goes by they slide along the circle until they meet and suddenly
we find we've moved out of the region where either of the apparently
separate solutions is viable ... and there's a sudden, extremely rapid
jump to a totally different solution.

A dog barking is another classic example you didn't mention. The "woof"
comes out all at once, when the system tips from non-barking state to
barking state.



The blackboard mathematics of old do not include this real world
behavior.

This panic effect means the fall will be far worse than even the
pessimistic exponential rate of decline.

But more like falling off a cliff.

Comments?

Yes, mathematically, it's exactly like falling off a cliff.


The Long Emergency
What's going to happen as we start running out of cheap gas to guzzle?
by James Howard Kunstler
http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0413-28.htm



--
Nospam becomes physicsinsights to fix the email
I can be also contacted through http://www.physicsinsights.org

"sal" wrote in message
news
On Tue, 31 Oct 2006 17:34:11 -0500, jonathan wrote:

We've all seen this non-linear effect. For instance, in my home of
Miami,
it's fascinating to watch the city react to an approaching hurricane.
Everyone watches, and watches, then at a single moment, everyone at once
realizes it's really coming here. And in minutes the panic ensues, the
city goes from normal to a completely cleaned out of supplies ...in a
couple of hours.

You are, of course, talking about catastrophe theory here, which describes
cases where a general solution to a set of differential equations is valid
only over a limited time domain. When you move out of the domain in which
that solution exists, poof!

As I understand it, the situation typically arises when a set
of differential equations appears to have multiple stable solutions, but
as time goes by two of the solutions turn out to be separate branches of
the same one. A plot of the solution space, with time on the horizontal
axis, might, for example, show a circle. There are two apparently
separate stable points on the circle (upper branch and lower branch), but
as time goes by they slide along the circle until they meet and suddenly
we find we've moved out of the region where either of the apparently
separate solutions is viable ... and there's a sudden, extremely rapid
jump to a totally different solution.

A dog barking is another classic example you didn't mention. The "woof"
comes out all at once, when the system tips from non-barking state to
barking state.


Exactly! There are many ways to describe this behavior.

I like to use a simple analogy for those that hate math.
This is a property of stressed systems, that are pushed
far from equilibrium. For instance, imagine water being
heated just to the point of becoming vapor. But not quite.
It stands poised at that very narrow temp range
where it's neither water or gas, but both at the same time.
Like a cloud. The system has been pushed to it's
critical point.

Once at this critical state, just a slight change in
temp causes a massive change in behavior or state.
It suddenly becomes /either/ water or air.
A sudden and large change of behavior/state from
a tiny change in conditions.
From order to chaos in a flash.

Perturbation and Transients - The Edge of Chaos
http://www.calresco.org/perturb.htm


Or use an analogy between what happened
to Enron and what might happen to the world
oil market.

With Enron, the system was stressed but operating.
Then someone got caught, an event occurred. Which
caused every detail of that system to be examined closely.
And all kinds of new problems are suddenly found.
The system collapses overnight.

Some world crisis could cause us to suddenly take a close
look at the Middle East reserve estimates. And the
realization they've been badly cooked, like Enron's
books, and all hell breaks loose. Everyone panics
and starts hording what they have left, everything
comes to a halt overnight.

Normally, a market system would adapt over time and
find new sources of energy as we expect markets to do.
But when a /primary variable/ suddenly becomes an /unknown/
that's the minute the panic starts.

I see this effect every day in the stock market.
I'm an aspiring day trader, and I'm trying to
use this concept for trading.

For example, take a look at the effect that
/sudden uncertainty in a primary variable/
had on ticker AVNR the other day.

They got a letter from the FDA, asking some
questions about a key drug awaiting FDA
approval. And look how the market reacted.
http://bigcharts.marke****ch.com/

That's a cliff...into bancruptcy or takeover
..
Or back to it's previous stability. Depending
on what's inside that letter. The contents of
the letter haven't been released to the public yet.
It's now at criticality, a real-world example of criticality.
And will remain at criticality until the uncertainty
is removed one way or the other.








The blackboard mathematics of old do not include this real world
behavior.

This panic effect means the fall will be far worse than even the
pessimistic exponential rate of decline.

But more like falling off a cliff.

Comments?

Yes, mathematically, it's exactly like falling off a cliff.


The Long Emergency
What's going to happen as we start running out of cheap gas to guzzle?
by James Howard Kunstler
http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0413-28.htm



--
Nospam becomes physicsinsights to fix the email
I can be also contacted through http://www.physicsinsights.org