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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?



 
 
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  #121  
Old October 19th 17, 04:44 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy[_2_]
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Posts: 132
Default Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?

I know you are, but what am I?

"Chris.B" wrote in
:

On Wednesday, 18 October 2017 20:19:14 UTC+2, Gutless Umbrella
Carrying Sissy wrote:

snip

Absence of basic understanding of quotation and bottom posting?

Obsessed with sexual imagery and boasts a permanent stain in his
signature bedding?

An immature, narcissistic, perverted, fascist, religious
hypocrite? All the ideal qualities of modern leadership. Should
go far!




--
Terry Austin

Vacation photos from Iceland:
https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB

"Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole."
-- David Bilek

Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals.

  #122  
Old October 22nd 17, 05:55 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Chris.B[_3_]
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Posts: 1,001
Default Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?

On Wednesday, 18 October 2017 20:19:14 UTC+2, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy wrote:
snip the usual drivel


The latest news is that polymers are being rapidly developed to allow present liquid batteries to become solid.
Thus removing the volatility and dangers of fire and explosion associated with some popular rechargeable batteries.
The polymer technology is expected to make rapid progress leading to early adoption.

There is also a new carbon based battery which is looking very promising.

Mankind's brightest has always provided an answer to our specific needs.

Vastly more scientists, inventors and engineers are working today than at any time in human history.

So, why aren't you?
  #123  
Old October 22nd 17, 08:07 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy[_2_]
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Posts: 132
Default Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?

"Chris.B" wrote in
:

On Wednesday, 18 October 2017 20:19:14 UTC+2, Gutless Umbrella
Carrying Sissy wrote:
snip the usual drivel


The latest news is that polymers are being rapidly developed to
allow present liquid batteries to become solid. Thus removing
the volatility and dangers of fire and explosion associated with
some popular rechargeable batteries. The polymer technology is
expected to make rapid progress leading to early adoption.

There is also a new carbon based battery which is looking very
promising.

Mankind's brightest has always provided an answer to our
specific needs.

Vastly more scientists, inventors and engineers are working
today than at any time in human history.

So, why aren't you?

Here's an analysis of why electric vehicles are unlikely to ever
completely replace gasoline in the real world. The numbers hold up
very well.

http://tinyurl.com/y8q43uau

http://driving.ca/auto-news/news/mot...-inconvenient-
truths-on-banning-gas-engines?
utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=lin k&ICID=ref_fark

The short version: A gas station with 16 pumps (and there are a lot
of those) would need 960 charging stations (coting $40,000 each)
using current 50 kW technology. Porche is working ona 350 kW
charging station, so that would reduce it to 128 stations (costing
$200,000 each). The 350 kW stations run so hot the charging cable
has to be liquid cooled (and if anything goes wrong, it *will*
explode). To equal the fuel time for a gasoline car for a 400 mile
trip - to simply transfer the amount of energy necessary to go that
far - would require a 3 *megawatt* charging station. That 16 pump
station would also need a 30 megawatt power line coming in. That's
_every_ _gas_ _station_ _in_ _the_ _country_. There are 168,000
places in the US that sell gasoline. If we assume they have an
average of 8 pumps each (which is a reasonable average), that's a
quarter of a *trillion* dollars just for the charging stations.

And note that this is all *in* *addition* *to* existing generating
(and distributing) infrastructure (since most of the charging will
be at peak hours). It would take generations to build the grid to
distribut that much power. The only feasible way would be for each
gas station to have it's own mini-nuke plant.

And according to the commonly accepted formula for comparison of
energy costs, for my 40 mpg Toyota to be replaced with a Tesla,
that uses 3 kWH/mile (which seems to be about as good as it gets
for passenger cars), electricity would have to cost 6 cents a kWH
to be the same price just for the energy (never mind having to pay
for the equivalent of a new engine every ten years). Currently, the
cheapest, off-hour price around here is 16.

So enjoy smoking your Kool-Aid, son. Your fantasies aren't going to
happen.

--
Terry Austin

Vacation photos from Iceland:
https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB

"Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole."
-- David Bilek

Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals.
  #124  
Old October 22nd 17, 09:17 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Chris L Peterson
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,007
Default Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?

On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 12:07:14 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy
wrote:

Here's an analysis of why electric vehicles are unlikely to ever
completely replace gasoline in the real world. The numbers hold up
very well.


Well, no it doesn't. It ignores that the cost of oil will continue to
rise, while the cost of electricity will continue to decrease. It
ignores that the demand for gasoline cars will decline and the demand
for electric cars will increase. It ignores the fact that most people
won't need fueling stations for the vast majority of their fueling. It
ignores that there WILL be significant improvements in charging and
electrical storage technology. It ignores that countries will regulate
non-electric vehicles out of existence for most purposes.

It looks at things as they currently are and imagines that nothing
significant will change. Talk about heads in the sand!
  #125  
Old October 22nd 17, 10:57 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy[_2_]
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Posts: 132
Default Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?

Chris L Peterson wrote in
:

On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 12:07:14 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying
Sissy wrote:

Here's an analysis of why electric vehicles are unlikely to ever
completely replace gasoline in the real world. The numbers hold
up very well.


Well, no it doesn't. It ignores that the cost of oil will
continue to rise,


The experts have been saying that for 50 years. People have become
skeptical.

while the cost of electricity will continue to
decrease.


The laws of physics, however do not. 3 megawatts to fill in less
than five minutes, when 350 kilowatts requires liquid cooling on
the cable, and will literally explode if shorted out. So, at a
minimum, seveal times as long to charge up.

It ignores that countries will regulate
non-electric vehicles out of existence for most purposes.

That may well happen, but that's not the same as replacing gasoline
powered cars. That's social engineering to force people to stay
close to home. Which europe has done a lot of for decades. The US
doesn't respond well to that, and California in particular has a
history of getting rid of politicians who **** with cars (ask Gray
Davis).

Pure fantasy, of the sort the liberals maturbate over a lot (like
violently overthrowing the Trump administration, when one side is
armed with 200 million guns, and the other side with man buns and
pussy hats).

Keep smoking that Kool-Aid, son. People like you are the reason
Tump is in the White House, and will be for a second term if he
wants, and Democrats won't be, and won't control either house of
Congress, for a least a generation. You're literally hallucinating
the world you need to exist, because you're too weak and stupid to
deal with the one that does.

--
Terry Austin

Vacation photos from Iceland:
https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB

"Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole."
-- David Bilek

Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals.
  #126  
Old October 23rd 17, 12:11 AM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Chris L Peterson
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,007
Default Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?

On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 14:57:50 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy
wrote:

Chris L Peterson wrote in
:

On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 12:07:14 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying
Sissy wrote:

Here's an analysis of why electric vehicles are unlikely to ever
completely replace gasoline in the real world. The numbers hold
up very well.


Well, no it doesn't. It ignores that the cost of oil will
continue to rise,


The experts have been saying that for 50 years. People have become
skeptical.


The long term trend HAS been a steady rise.

while the cost of electricity will continue to
decrease.


The laws of physics, however do not. 3 megawatts to fill in less
than five minutes, when 350 kilowatts requires liquid cooling on
the cable, and will literally explode if shorted out. So, at a
minimum, seveal times as long to charge up.


You seem to have ignored the part about not needing to fuel at a
station. The vast majority of users will fuel at home, overnight, or
at work while parked. And those who do use stations will seldom need
to charge fully.

It ignores that countries will regulate
non-electric vehicles out of existence for most purposes.

That may well happen, but that's not the same as replacing gasoline
powered cars. That's social engineering to force people to stay
close to home. Which europe has done a lot of for decades. The US
doesn't respond well to that, and California in particular has a
history of getting rid of politicians who **** with cars (ask Gray
Davis).


It doesn't matter if the car companies aren't making gasoline cars.

You're going to feel pretty stupid in 20 years when most of the
vehicles are electric.
  #127  
Old October 23rd 17, 04:39 AM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 132
Default Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?

Chris L Peterson wrote in
:

On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 14:57:50 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying
Sissy wrote:

Chris L Peterson wrote in
m:

On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 12:07:14 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying
Sissy wrote:

Here's an analysis of why electric vehicles are unlikely to
ever completely replace gasoline in the real world. The
numbers hold up very well.

Well, no it doesn't. It ignores that the cost of oil will
continue to rise,


The experts have been saying that for 50 years. People have
become skeptical.


The long term trend HAS been a steady rise.


Except when it collapses. In point of fact, when adjusted for
inflation, the price of crude has been remarkably stable, except
for spikes caused by politics, not shortage of supply.

while the cost of electricity will continue to
decrease.


The laws of physics, however do not. 3 megawatts to fill in less
than five minutes, when 350 kilowatts requires liquid cooling on
the cable, and will literally explode if shorted out. So, at a
minimum, seveal times as long to charge up.


You seem to have ignored the part about not needing to fuel at a
station. The vast majority of users will fuel at home,
overnight, or at work while parked. And those who do use
stations will seldom need to charge fully.


No matter where you charge, the electricity isn't coming out of
yoru ass. It sill has to be generated *somewhere*, and transmitted
to where it is used. That's ten *trillion* kilowatt hours per year
for the US. And that's in addition to current demand, which would
require additional generating capacity to be built, and significant
upgrades to the grid to handle the additional load.

In addition, home charging stations are not as fast charging as the
50 Kw stations used as the equivalent of a gas station. If you can
manage a 30 amp station, you get about 30 miles of range per hour
of charging. Not all homes can manage a 30 amp service.

And, of course, there's the issue of people who live in apartment
or other rentals. There is no way in hell I could install a
charging station, period. I live in a *small* complexo f about 180
units. If electric vechilces are all that's available, the complex
would have to install charging stations for each unit. That's over
$7 million. Plus, of course, an *additional* 9 megawatt electric
service. Times however many tens of millions of people in the US
living in apartments. Hell, I don't think there's even room for a
charging station in my parking bay. You've just doubled my rent,
and now I'm living in my electric car - that I can't charge.

Also note that you'll need to duplicate all that again at places
where people work.

It ignores that countries will regulate
non-electric vehicles out of existence for most purposes.

That may well happen, but that's not the same as replacing
gasoline powered cars. That's social engineering to force people
to stay close to home. Which europe has done a lot of for
decades. The US doesn't respond well to that, and California in
particular has a history of getting rid of politicians who ****
with cars (ask Gray Davis).


It doesn't matter if the car companies aren't making gasoline
cars.


Which isn't going to happen, even for the US market. Even for city
driving, where a hundred mile range is acceptable (assuming you can
charge at work, too), the additional load on the grid is too
expensive to meet. Ten trillion kilowatt hours per year of new
capacity, plus grid upgrades to get it where it needs to go. Or
168,000 nuclear power plants, take your pick.

You're going to feel pretty stupid in 20 years when most of the
vehicles are electric.

Not as stupid as you look right now, kiddo. So hold your breath for
20 years, and get back to me.

--
Terry Austin

Vacation photos from Iceland:
https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB

"Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole."
-- David Bilek

Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals.
  #128  
Old October 23rd 17, 06:56 AM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Chris.B[_3_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,001
Default Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?

On Sunday, 22 October 2017 22:17:50 UTC+2, Chris L Peterson wrote:

Well, no it doesn't. It ignores that the cost of oil will continue to
rise, while the cost of electricity will continue to decrease. It
ignores that the demand for gasoline cars will decline and the demand
for electric cars will increase. It ignores the fact that most people
won't need fueling stations for the vast majority of their fueling. It
ignores that there WILL be significant improvements in charging and
electrical storage technology. It ignores that countries will regulate
non-electric vehicles out of existence for most purposes.

It looks at things as they currently are and imagines that nothing
significant will change. Talk about heads in the sand!


It also ignores the likelihood of rapid CHANGE battery packs.
Petrol station owners and electric car makers would be mad not to consider rapid adoption of standard battery packs as they struggle for serious range and long charging times.
Then all it takes is a simple mechanism for roll-out/roll-in for two minute automated battery exchange.
All vehicle batteries would be rented/hired. NOT bought.
Petrol stations should soon become tourist attractions at Disney and transport museums.
The Chinese have easily enough muscle to introduce standard battery packs over the heads of ostrich car makers.
They are also desperate to provide clean air.
Standardized, rapid change, vehicle battery packs are inevitable and the only real option for keeping the masses moving.

Meanwhile the oil companies will never allow their vehicle re-fueling monopolies to die overnight.
The loss of their prime real estate would be crippling even if they kept up a dwindling supply for the dwindling number of petrol heads.

London has just introduced a surcharge for diesel and older cars entering the city.
A nice little earner for local taxes and increasingly popular for every city around the world as they all struggle with deteriorating air quality.
It forces poorer drivers to seriously consider electric cars.
The car manufacturers are being ostriches where the mass car market is concerned.

Can you imagine oil company directors crying at the prospect of losing total market share to nationwide battery hire startups?
They are already struggling with the loss of earnings from VHS film rental to TV streaming services.
Video rental shops used to be the last gasp for downtrodden shopping streets and malls.
Then the petrol stations took over film hire and closed the last gasp video outlets.
The loss of the petrol station, with its small shop, would be a major blow to many struggling communities.
Times change. Never more than in present times.
  #129  
Old October 23rd 17, 07:54 AM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 132
Default Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?

"Chris.B" wrote in
:

On Sunday, 22 October 2017 22:17:50 UTC+2, Chris L Peterson
wrote:

Well, no it doesn't. It ignores that the cost of oil will
continue to rise, while the cost of electricity will continue
to decrease. It ignores that the demand for gasoline cars will
decline and the demand for electric cars will increase. It
ignores the fact that most people won't need fueling stations
for the vast majority of their fueling. It ignores that there
WILL be significant improvements in charging and electrical
storage technology. It ignores that countries will regulate
non-electric vehicles out of existence for most purposes.

It looks at things as they currently are and imagines that
nothing significant will change. Talk about heads in the sand!


It also ignores the likelihood of rapid CHANGE battery packs.


Higher efficiency batteries won't generate ten terrawatt hours of
elecricity ever year.

Nor will it allow the transfer of hundreds of kilowatt hours more
quickly at 50 killowatts.

You will *never* address this. I seriously doubt you are capable of
even seeing it through the hallucinations.

--
Terry Austin

Vacation photos from Iceland:
https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB

"Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole."
-- David Bilek

Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals.
  #130  
Old October 23rd 17, 02:44 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Chris L Peterson
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,007
Default Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?

On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 20:39:17 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy
wrote:

The experts have been saying that for 50 years. People have
become skeptical.


The long term trend HAS been a steady rise.


Except when it collapses. In point of fact, when adjusted for
inflation, the price of crude has been remarkably stable, except
for spikes caused by politics, not shortage of supply.


Collapses and spikes are normal. Take them out, and you're left with a
steady rise over the last 75+ years.

The laws of physics, however do not. 3 megawatts to fill in less
than five minutes, when 350 kilowatts requires liquid cooling on
the cable, and will literally explode if shorted out. So, at a
minimum, seveal times as long to charge up.


You seem to have ignored the part about not needing to fuel at a
station. The vast majority of users will fuel at home,
overnight, or at work while parked. And those who do use
stations will seldom need to charge fully.


No matter where you charge, the electricity isn't coming out of
yoru ass. It sill has to be generated *somewhere*, and transmitted
to where it is used. That's ten *trillion* kilowatt hours per year
for the US. And that's in addition to current demand, which would
require additional generating capacity to be built, and significant
upgrades to the grid to handle the additional load.


Producing the electricity isn't a real problem. Your argument was
about the load, which is a function of rate. The rate will not
typically be high.


In addition, home charging stations are not as fast charging as the
50 Kw stations used as the equivalent of a gas station. If you can
manage a 30 amp station, you get about 30 miles of range per hour
of charging. Not all homes can manage a 30 amp service.


You don't typically need fast charging at home. And most will have
access to charging at their destinations. Indeed, one huge benefit a
large electric car fleet provides is load normalization across the
entire grid. Economics will create a system with a huge number of
public charging stations just for that reason.

It doesn't matter if the car companies aren't making gasoline
cars.


Which isn't going to happen, even for the US market.


Yes, it is. It's already happening. Gasoline cars will be the
exception in 20 years, not the rule. And awkward as hell given that
there won't be many filling stations. And expensive to operate given
high carbon taxes.
 




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