Fermi paradox, your own belief?

(gswork) wrote in message . com...

Odds of life in a given solar system--slim.
Number of solar systems--huge.
My conclusion: Intelligent life abounds.

Chance of finding a contemporary close enough to detect--infinitely slim (almost).

Thought of the day: Why is it now? Of all the gin-joints...

Steve O.

ON the off chance you don't know, Fermi's paradox is basically - if
even conservative estimates suggest that adanced life in the galaxy is
abundant then even more conservative estimates show that the entire
galaxy should be explored already, so why aren't the aliens here?

various reasons are given as to why they're not : advaned life is
rarer than we thought, space travel is more difficult than we think,
they are here(!), they've put us in quarantine until we grow up,
civilisation destroy themselves at some crucial point etc etc.

This is old hat for many, but it may interest or stimulate you. I'm
really just looking for opinions, your opinions on why we don't
encounter aliens regularly.

The one i tend to believe is that whilst life may not be so
overwhelmingly rare, advanced technological space faring life is -
very very rare indeed. So rare it may even be that we are alone in
this galaxy, or maybe sharing with a handful of others dotted around
the milky way, with one each in the magallenic clouds!

I think this because, based on what i've read, Earth has been around
for nearly 5 billion years, microscopic life for perhaps 3 billion,
and more complex life for only 700 million or so. Not only that but
left to it's own devices the Earth would have only another few hundred
million years before the Sun's ever increasing heat output starts to
tip the delicate balance of the eco system and potentially make it too
hostile to complex life, driving life back into the seas, back into
more primitive forms.

A couple of billion years hence, maybe more, the earth tips over into
runaway greenhouse and becomes a milder, but equally deadly version of
Venus, utterly devoid of life. Later still the sun exits the main
sequence, becomes a red giant, and that's pretty much it for the inner
3 planets.

So Earth can support complex life for something like 1.5 billion years
start to finish. It took half that to to get to Humans, and were not
100% sure that we are really a space faring race (in interstellar
terms) or will last long enough to become one. If the dinosaur killer
event didn't happen then there'd be no reason for humans to exist.
Indeed it would only take a series of subtle variations and humans
would not have evolved at all. The evolution of technological
advanced intelligent animals seems really very precarious.

Life itself may be rarer than we think, and space faring life may be
so exceptional that it's more likely we *won't* encounter aliens.

An interesting book on this is Isaac Asimov's 'Extraterrestrial
Civilisations'. It's a 1979 book (IIRC) so the science is
occasionally missing a later discovery or theory, but mostly it makes
sense today and is well written and interesting. (perhaps you have
book recommendations in this area too?)

On Sat, 19 Jun 2004 10:31:40 -0400, Insane Ranter wrote:

Then why was all of the knowledge lost to "us" after we crashed?

I take it that you haven't read the books. Golgafrinchans were idiots -
which explains a lot about the human race (which was the point).
--
Evan Couche UIN : 5361099
Mail: BSS
"Just think of it as Evolution in action."
- Oath of Fealty - L.Niven & J.Pournelle

On Sat, 19 Jun 2004 10:31:40 -0400, Insane Ranter wrote:

Then why was all of the knowledge lost to "us" after we crashed?

I take it that you haven't read the books. Golgafrinchans were idiots -
which explains a lot about the human race (which was the point).
--
Evan Couche UIN : 5361099
Mail: BSS
"Just think of it as Evolution in action."
- Oath of Fealty - L.Niven & J.Pournelle

John Beaderstadt writes:

While reading in the bathroom on Sat, 19 Jun 2004 03:32:41 +0000
(UTC), I saw that (Brian Tung) had written:

The point of Fermi's question is apparently that the absence of evidence
of intelligent visitors is some evidence of absence. I don't know that
I agree with that, but it's not something that I think too much about.

So, take it out of the ET context and try it this way: If time travel
is possible, then where are all the time travelers?


The difference being, there is no reason to expect that time travel is
possible, and every reason to believe that space travel is possible.

Not necessarily *easy*, but the paradox doesn't require easy space travel,
instead noting that the universe is old enough to have done it the hard
way.


--
*John Schilling * "Anything worth doing, *
*Member:AIAA,NRA,ACLU,SAS,LP * is worth doing for money" *
*Chief Scientist & General Partner * -13th Rule of Acquisition *
*White Elephant Research, LLC * "There is no substitute *
* for success" *
*661-718-0955 or 661-275-6795 * -58th Rule of Acquisition *

John Beaderstadt writes:

While reading in the bathroom on Sat, 19 Jun 2004 03:32:41 +0000
(UTC), I saw that (Brian Tung) had written:

The point of Fermi's question is apparently that the absence of evidence
of intelligent visitors is some evidence of absence. I don't know that
I agree with that, but it's not something that I think too much about.

So, take it out of the ET context and try it this way: If time travel
is possible, then where are all the time travelers?


The difference being, there is no reason to expect that time travel is
possible, and every reason to believe that space travel is possible.

Not necessarily *easy*, but the paradox doesn't require easy space travel,
instead noting that the universe is old enough to have done it the hard
way.


--
*John Schilling * "Anything worth doing, *
*Member:AIAA,NRA,ACLU,SAS,LP * is worth doing for money" *
*Chief Scientist & General Partner * -13th Rule of Acquisition *
*White Elephant Research, LLC * "There is no substitute *
* for success" *
*661-718-0955 or 661-275-6795 * -58th Rule of Acquisition *

"Alan Wright" abagooba zoink larblortch
:

Read my post again. I make no claims that demand evidence,
but mere plausibility. The words "even if" are key. Beyond that,

In other words, it's empty and idle speculation. It's Weekly World New
stuff on the same level as Batboy.

speculate, but a grasp of math together with the recognition that
cosmological events are generally not unique leads to the idea
that similar things have happened beyond Earth. We have

Show the evidence. You are merely arguing from necessity. Ever hear of
the term "logical fallacy".

not contacted other civilizations, so any conclusion that they
therefore do not exist is tantamount to assuming we do not
exist for the same reason.

Never stated that they did not exist, only that there was insufficient
evidence for any reasonable or sane person to conclude they did. The sort
of digital dogmatism you descend into is highly religious in nature.

"Alan Wright" abagooba zoink larblortch
:

Read my post again. I make no claims that demand evidence,
but mere plausibility. The words "even if" are key. Beyond that,

In other words, it's empty and idle speculation. It's Weekly World New
stuff on the same level as Batboy.

speculate, but a grasp of math together with the recognition that
cosmological events are generally not unique leads to the idea
that similar things have happened beyond Earth. We have

Show the evidence. You are merely arguing from necessity. Ever hear of
the term "logical fallacy".

not contacted other civilizations, so any conclusion that they
therefore do not exist is tantamount to assuming we do not
exist for the same reason.

Never stated that they did not exist, only that there was insufficient
evidence for any reasonable or sane person to conclude they did. The sort
of digital dogmatism you descend into is highly religious in nature.

"Insane Ranter" abagooba zoink larblortch news:RZXAc.276
:

Then why was all of the knowledge lost to "us" after we crashed?

It was only suppressed--and then only among the inferior orders. Didn't
you attend the "We're not the inferior orders and this is why" briefing?

"Insane Ranter" abagooba zoink larblortch news:RZXAc.276
:

Then why was all of the knowledge lost to "us" after we crashed?

It was only suppressed--and then only among the inferior orders. Didn't
you attend the "We're not the inferior orders and this is why" briefing?

(gswork) abagooba zoink larblortch
om:

Someone has to be, but the 'principle of mediocrity' often applied
successfully to astronomy can be applied here too (i.e. everything we
are is 'normal', our planet, our sun etc- we're not the centre, not
amazingly endowed with rare materials etc)

Provide the hard evidence that this principle must apply to us in terms of
whether or not other sapient life exists. Show some real evidence, not a
bunch of idle speculation fueled by religious faith.