JimO: "Chinese space advances benefit everyone"

Chinese space advances benefit everyone
http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion...14-oberg_x.htm
USA TODAY, October 15, 2003

By James Oberg

What really is about to happen is ... momentous: For the first time since
1961, and only the third time in world history, a new nation will have
achieved independent human-spaceflight capability.

When the Chinese manned spacecraft Shenzhou 5 blasts off this week, it will
be carrying at least one astronaut and a sack of seeds for science
experiments. It also will be carrying a load of the world's high hopes — and
anxieties.

Some are certain to worry about China's real intentions in space. But
alongside that worrisome baggage is hopeful cargo: Simply by taking place,
China's mission will energize the existing space activities of other
countries by making old patterns of space partnerships obsolete.

It's about time.

Space programs in the United States, Europe and even Japan need a good kick
into gear. China's emergence adds a full-fledged third partner to what has
been mainly a U.S.-Russian alliance dictated by long-extinct diplomatic
considerations. China provides new options for projects during a crisis,
such as moving crews and cargo to the International Space Station (ISS) and
back.

Fears about China in space should not sidetrack people. This isn't the Cold
War of U.S.-Soviet confrontation, so a new high-budget "space race" isn't in
the cards. China is not racing us to establish a manned military station on
the moon. Nor is it assembling an orbiting battle fleet to neutralize
American space-based military tools. To imagine such threats is to fear
shadows. To respond as if they were real would be folly.

What really is about to happen is much more momentous: For the first time
since 1961, and only the third time in world history, a new nation will have
achieved independent human-spaceflight capability.

China has expended a great deal of its rare resources of talent and time,
and has taken enormous risks, to carry out this project. In the most basic
sense, this is a case of brave young men facing daunting psychological and
technical challenges and risking their lives to help mankind stretch its
abilities.

A Chinese human space program will have practical short- and long-term
benefits. It will enhance the commercial attractiveness of its high-tech
exports as well as the credibility of its aerospace military hardware.
Chinese science projects will get a lot more respect across the board. And
the prestige of the Beijing government will be enhanced both externally and
internally, as it receives a 21st century version of the classic "Mandate of
Heaven" needed by all previous Chinese rulers.

In the next few years, China plans to:

• Fly many more orbits in space, including experiments involving docking
small space labs together and visiting them periodically.

• Demonstrate that its Shenzhou vehicles are more sophisticated than
Russia's Soyuz spaceship and will be able to compete with NASA's redesigned
crew-transfer vehicle to carry astronauts and cargo between Earth and space
stations.

• Explore the moon with robot craft, including surface rovers.

• Have its own Mir-class space station by the end of the decade.

Because China's space vehicles use docking mechanisms that appear modeled
after Russia's, they should be compatible with the ISS. So China could
provide emergency support to the ISS, and symbolic visits are feasible. Just
the possibility of this is enough to energize the international partnerships
behind the space station.

While Beijing officials say China is opposed to the "weaponization" of
space, there are probably some military applications for Shenzhou. But these
would be mainly in the areas of observing other countries, both with
telescope cameras (to see structures on the ground) and with electronic
eavesdropping antennas (to locate radars and communications sites). Other
nations, the United States included, already have similar
space-reconnaissance activities underway. Adding another may be a positive s
tep: As the number of countries keeping an eye on each other increases, the
chances of military surprises are reduced, thus enhancing international
stability.

If there is a challenge involved, it is for the United States and other
space-faring nations to live up to their ideals and potentials in space.
Loss of focus leads to losses of lives and treasure, as we have been
bitterly reminded. Shenzhou's charge to other nations is to take space
seriously again.

As this brave team begins its fantastic voyages, we all can celebrate, just
as we hailed the feats of Yuri Gagarin, Neil Armstrong, Arnaldo
Tamayo-Mendez, Julie Payette and other pioneering earthlings.

Beyond the boundaries of Earth, the accomplishments of all earthlings
benefit everyone.

James Oberg, who spent 22 years at NASA Mission Control in Houston, is
writing a book on the national security uses of space.

On Wed, 15 Oct 2003 04:07:38 GMT, "James Oberg"
wrote, in part:

Fears about China in space should not sidetrack people. This isn't the Cold
War of U.S.-Soviet confrontation, so a new high-budget "space race" isn't in
the cards. China is not racing us to establish a manned military station on
the moon. Nor is it assembling an orbiting battle fleet to neutralize
American space-based military tools. To imagine such threats is to fear
shadows. To respond as if they were real would be folly.

China is not a democracy.

It doesn't have a free press or free elections.

The Chinese people don't have the right of free assembly or the free
exercise of religion.

It is entirely appropriate to react with fear (or perhaps more
accurately trepidation, or a non-emotional recognition of the presence
of a potential threat) whenever any non-democratic country is found in
possession of any technology more advanced than bows and arrows. Of
course, we hardly needed China's launch of a manned space rocket to
cause us fear on that account, and you are indeed correct that in
_itself_ the peaceful exploration of space is not too frightening.

However, it wasn't too long ago that people were saying that Chinese
nuclear missiles "might" be able to reach the extreme East and West
coasts of the U.S.; obviously, if you can launch an orbital satellite
of any kind, you can reach any part of the earth with an ICBM... just
as Sputnik told us about the Russians.

John Savard
http://home.ecn.ab.ca/~jsavard/index.html

Short of Saddamizing the Beijing regime, we should find patient, productive
engagement strategies that encourage trends we want to see. Openness rather
than secrecy, civil application rather than weapons, sensitivity to the
opinons of foreigners rather than arrogantly isolationist (e.g., Norkor),
those look like trends encouraged by this activity. But you're suggestions
are also critically important -- don't delude ourselves into thinking the
regime, or the nation that it has shaped for generations, is 'like us' in
any fundamental way except survival instinct. Remember our real differences.





"John Savard" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 15 Oct 2003 04:07:38 GMT, "James Oberg"
wrote, in part:

Fears about China in space should not sidetrack people. This isn't the
Cold
War of U.S.-Soviet confrontation, so a new high-budget "space race" isn't
in
the cards. China is not racing us to establish a manned military station
on
the moon. Nor is it assembling an orbiting battle fleet to neutralize
American space-based military tools. To imagine such threats is to fear
shadows. To respond as if they were real would be folly.

China is not a democracy.

It doesn't have a free press or free elections.

The Chinese people don't have the right of free assembly or the free
exercise of religion.

It is entirely appropriate to react with fear (or perhaps more
accurately trepidation, or a non-emotional recognition of the presence
of a potential threat) whenever any non-democratic country is found in
possession of any technology more advanced than bows and arrows. Of
course, we hardly needed China's launch of a manned space rocket to
cause us fear on that account, and you are indeed correct that in
_itself_ the peaceful exploration of space is not too frightening.

However, it wasn't too long ago that people were saying that Chinese
nuclear missiles "might" be able to reach the extreme East and West
coasts of the U.S.; obviously, if you can launch an orbital satellite
of any kind, you can reach any part of the earth with an ICBM... just
as Sputnik told us about the Russians.

John Savard
http://home.ecn.ab.ca/~jsavard/index.html

On Wed, 15 Oct 2003 12:34:11 GMT, lid
(John Savard) wrote:

On Wed, 15 Oct 2003 04:07:38 GMT, "James Oberg"
wrote, in part:

Fears about China in space should not sidetrack people. This isn't the Cold
War of U.S.-Soviet confrontation, so a new high-budget "space race" isn't in
the cards. China is not racing us to establish a manned military station on
the moon. Nor is it assembling an orbiting battle fleet to neutralize
American space-based military tools. To imagine such threats is to fear
shadows. To respond as if they were real would be folly.

China is not a democracy.

It doesn't have a free press or free elections.

The Chinese people don't have the right of free assembly or the free
exercise of religion.

It is entirely appropriate to react with fear (or perhaps more
accurately trepidation, or a non-emotional recognition of the presence
of a potential threat) whenever any non-democratic country is found in
possession of any technology more advanced than bows and arrows. Of
course, we hardly needed China's launch of a manned space rocket to
cause us fear on that account, and you are indeed correct that in
_itself_ the peaceful exploration of space is not too frightening.

However, it wasn't too long ago that people were saying that Chinese
nuclear missiles "might" be able to reach the extreme East and West
coasts of the U.S.; obviously, if you can launch an orbital satellite
of any kind, you can reach any part of the earth with an ICBM... just
as Sputnik told us about the Russians.

Isn't it comforting to know that American paranoia is still alive and
well.


Christopher
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
"Kites rise highest against
the wind - not with it."
Winston Churchill

On Wed, 15 Oct 2003 14:42:36 GMT, "James Oberg"
wrote, in part:

Short of Saddamizing the Beijing regime, we should find patient, productive
engagement strategies that encourage trends we want to see. Openness rather
than secrecy, civil application rather than weapons, sensitivity to the
opinons of foreigners rather than arrogantly isolationist (e.g., Norkor),
those look like trends encouraged by this activity. But you're suggestions
are also critically important -- don't delude ourselves into thinking the
regime, or the nation that it has shaped for generations, is 'like us' in
any fundamental way except survival instinct. Remember our real differences.

What most saddens me about this is that it will delude many young
Chinese further into primitive nationalism and uncritical support of
their regime. That will delay the day when China wakes up and realizes
it has taken a wrong turn.

John Savard
http://home.ecn.ab.ca/~jsavard/index.html

[Article snipped]

I wouldn't be surprised that we may see an announcement of a future Shenzhou
flight docking with the ISS before 2010. And if the Chinese can build a
Proton-class launcher, the Chinese might even provide launch services for
future ISS expansion modules after 2010.

--
Raymond Chuang
Sacramento, CA USA

In article et,
Raymond Chuang wrote:
...And if the Chinese can build a
Proton-class launcher, the Chinese might even provide launch services for
future ISS expansion modules after 2010.

They already have a Proton-class launcher, the Long March 3B. Whether
they feel like donating launches to ISS, or would rather build their own
station, is a different question.
--
MOST launched 1015 EDT 30 June, separated 1046, | Henry Spencer
first ground-station pass 1651, all nominal! |

On Wed, 15 Oct 2003 15:16:58 GMT, (Christopher)
wrote, in part:

Isn't it comforting to know that American paranoia is still alive and
well.

You're not paranoid if you really have enemies.

That some people who don't share America's democratic values are its
enemies is borne out by September 11, 2001.

That China doesn't share America's democratic values is borne out by
the fate of Tibet. (That is, the democratic values of the America of
today and at least as far back as Woodrow Wilson, before anyone makes
wisecracks about the fate of Native Americans...)

If China were weak and helpless, Tibet would have been liberated long
ago. Therefore, for China not to be weak and helpless is bad, because
China's not being weak and helpless is contributing to innocent people
getting hurt.

Where is the flaw in that logic?

John Savard
http://home.ecn.ab.ca/~jsavard/index.html

*follow-ups trimmed*

"John Savard" wrote ...
If China were weak and helpless, Tibet would have been liberated long
ago. Therefore, for China not to be weak and helpless is bad, because
China's not being weak and helpless is contributing to innocent people
getting hurt.

Where is the flaw in that logic?

About four lines up from your question. If China was weak and helpless
(relative to current state anyway) it does not follow that Tibet would have
been liberated.

Whether relatively weak countries, regardless of their mistreatment of those
within their (current) borders are interferred with is dependent on the whims
of the external governments involved and the politics of the moment.

Balkans style informal civil war and ethinic cleansing would be a distinct
possibility, and not necessarilly an improvement from Tibet's point of view.

OK who ordered Chinese? Yuri was that yours?







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