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...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.
Jonathan wrote:
Standard models earlier on predicted it would make it to a three by landfall late next week. It not only smashed that prediction but went from a category 1 to a 5 at over ...three times the predicted rate..just today. Global warming means we better get used to very large hurricanes, they're becoming the norm instead of the exception. I posted this in 2005 when the more excitable were hysterical. The theory of AGW enhancement of Tropical Cyclones comes from the observation of strengthening when storms pass over warmer waters, enhancing their convective potential energy, and so the storm's intensity. First, while enhanced convection does increase the surface inflow/outflow aloft of TCs, it is conservation of angular momentum that gives TCs their intensity and circular shape. Indeed the CAPE measurements, (Convective Available Potential Energy) are surprisingly low in Tropical Cyclones - much less than over the Great Plains in early summer. Second, AGW is modeled to DECREASE the lapse rate in the tropics, stabilizing the atmosphere and suppressing convection. That is not happening: http://climatewatcher.blogspot.com/ So you see Felix and say - aha! global warming! I see Felix and say - aha! no global warming! |
#2
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...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.
Al Bedo wrote:
Jonathan wrote: Standard models earlier on predicted it would make it to a three by landfall late next week. It not only smashed that prediction but went from a category 1 to a 5 at over ...three times the predicted rate..just today. Global warming means we better get used to very large hurricanes, they're becoming the norm instead of the exception. I posted this in 2005 when the more excitable were hysterical. The theory of AGW enhancement of Tropical Cyclones comes from the observation of strengthening when storms pass over warmer waters, enhancing their convective potential energy, and so the storm's intensity. That does seem to explain the rapidity of the intensification (note the area of high heat capacity north of Columbia): http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataph.../2007244ca.jpg First, while enhanced convection does increase the surface inflow/outflow aloft of TCs, it is conservation of angular momentum that gives TCs their intensity and circular shape. Indeed the CAPE measurements, (Convective Available Potential Energy) are surprisingly low in Tropical Cyclones - much less than over the Great Plains in early summer. Second, AGW is modeled to DECREASE the lapse rate in the tropics, stabilizing the atmosphere and suppressing convection. That is not happening: http://climatewatcher.blogspot.com/ So you see Felix and say - aha! global warming! I see Felix and say - aha! no global warming! |
#3
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...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.
On Sep 2, 6:43 pm, Al Bedo wrote:
[ . . . ] Second, AGW is modeled to DECREASE the lapse rate in the tropics, stabilizing the atmosphere and suppressing convection. Could you please give a source for this statement? |
#4
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...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.
"Al Bedo" wrote in message ... Jonathan wrote: Standard models earlier on predicted it would make it to a three by landfall late next week. It not only smashed that prediction but went from a category 1 to a 5 at over ...three times the predicted rate..just today. Global warming means we better get used to very large hurricanes, they're becoming the norm instead of the exception. I posted this in 2005 when the more excitable were hysterical. The theory of AGW enhancement of Tropical Cyclones comes from the observation of strengthening when storms pass over warmer waters, enhancing their convective potential energy, and so the storm's intensity. First, while enhanced convection does increase the surface inflow/outflow aloft of TCs, it is conservation of angular momentum that gives TCs their intensity and circular shape. Indeed the CAPE measurements, (Convective Available Potential Energy) are surprisingly low in Tropical Cyclones - much less than over the Great Plains in early summer. Second, AGW is modeled to DECREASE the lapse rate in the tropics, stabilizing the atmosphere and suppressing convection. That is not happening: You're talking about atmospheric conditions, which are highly variable. I'm talking about the true driver of stronger storms, sea surface temps, which are far more consistant and rising in tune with the recent rise in greenhouse gasses. When the shear is weak, the warmer waters will be waiting and will win. Giving us storms that not only reach major status more often, but they will be larger in size and ....race to the maximum... at spectacular rates. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED. FELIX ....WILL BE PASSING OVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007...cus.009.shtml? s http://climatewatcher.blogspot.com/ So you see Felix and say - aha! global warming! I see Felix and say - aha! no global warming! |
#5
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...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.
Roger Coppock wrote:
On Sep 2, 6:43 pm, Al Bedo wrote: [ . . . ] Second, AGW is modeled to DECREASE the lapse rate in the tropics, stabilizing the atmosphere and suppressing convection. Could you please give a source for this statement? You can look at model outputs from GISS and the CCM. Other models have similar results. |
#6
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...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.
On Sep 2, 7:37 pm, Al Bedo wrote:
Roger Coppock wrote: On Sep 2, 6:43 pm, Al Bedo wrote: [ . . . ] Second, AGW is modeled to DECREASE the lapse rate in the tropics, stabilizing the atmosphere and suppressing convection. Could you please give a source for this statement? You can look at model outputs from GISS and the CCM. EXACTLY where can one do that and see the tropical lapse rate decrease? A URL please? |
#7
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...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.
Roger Coppock wrote:
On Sep 2, 7:37 pm, Al Bedo wrote: Roger Coppock wrote: On Sep 2, 6:43 pm, Al Bedo wrote: [ . . . ] Second, AGW is modeled to DECREASE the lapse rate in the tropics, stabilizing the atmosphere and suppressing convection. Could you please give a source for this statement? You can look at model outputs from GISS and the CCM. EXACTLY where can one do that and see the tropical lapse rate decrease? A URL please? You clipped this one which shows GISS versus RAOB and MSU: http://climatewatcher.blogspot.com/ CCSM is similar: http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/experiments...t4_ANN_T_c.png Other modelers don't make the data quite as easy to access. |
#8
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...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.
Bill Ward blathered on:
Hey, get a life. -- Phil Hays |
#9
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...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.
On Sep 2, 8:18 pm, Al Bedo wrote:
[ . . . ] CCSM is similar: http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/experiments...5a.ES01-b30.00... Please tell me if I am reading this correctly. There are three graphs here, two up top and one below. top left is 2X CO2 top right is 1990 bottom is a difference of the top two (2X CO2) - (1990) That difference on the bottom shows faster warming with increasing altitude from ground level to about the 150 mb level. This effect is centered in the tropics. Which would show exactly what you said it would, a decrease the tropical tropospheric lapse rate. |
#10
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...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.
Roger Coppock wrote:
On Sep 2, 8:18 pm, Al Bedo wrote: [ . . . ] CCSM is similar: http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/experiments...5a.ES01-b30.00... Please tell me if I am reading this correctly. There are three graphs here, two up top and one below. top left is 2X CO2 top right is 1990 bottom is a difference of the top two (2X CO2) - (1990) That difference on the bottom shows faster warming with increasing altitude from ground level to about the 150 mb level. This effect is centered in the tropics. Which would show exactly what you said it would, a decrease the tropical tropospheric lapse rate. Correct. |
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