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...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.



 
 
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  #1  
Old September 3rd 07, 02:43 AM posted to sci.geo.geology,sci.space.history,alt.global-warming,alt.politics,uk.sci.weather
Al Bedo
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Posts: 5
Default ...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.

Jonathan wrote:
Standard models earlier on predicted it would make it to a three
by landfall late next week. It not only smashed that prediction
but went from a category 1 to a 5 at over ...three times
the predicted rate..just today.

Global warming means we better get used to very large
hurricanes, they're becoming the norm instead
of the exception.


I posted this in 2005 when the more excitable
were hysterical. The theory of AGW enhancement
of Tropical Cyclones comes from the observation
of strengthening when storms pass over warmer
waters, enhancing their convective potential energy,
and so the storm's intensity.

First, while enhanced convection does increase the
surface inflow/outflow aloft of TCs, it is conservation
of angular momentum that gives TCs their intensity
and circular shape. Indeed the CAPE measurements,
(Convective Available Potential Energy) are surprisingly low
in Tropical Cyclones - much less than over the Great Plains
in early summer.

Second, AGW is modeled to DECREASE the lapse rate in the tropics,
stabilizing the atmosphere and suppressing convection.
That is not happening:

http://climatewatcher.blogspot.com/

So you see Felix and say - aha! global warming!

I see Felix and say - aha! no global warming!
  #2  
Old September 3rd 07, 02:55 AM posted to sci.geo.geology,sci.space.history,alt.global-warming,alt.politics,uk.sci.weather
Al Bedo
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Posts: 5
Default ...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.

Al Bedo wrote:
Jonathan wrote:
Standard models earlier on predicted it would make it to a three by
landfall late next week. It not only smashed that prediction
but went from a category 1 to a 5 at over ...three times the predicted
rate..just today.

Global warming means we better get used to very large hurricanes,
they're becoming the norm instead of the exception.


I posted this in 2005 when the more excitable
were hysterical. The theory of AGW enhancement
of Tropical Cyclones comes from the observation
of strengthening when storms pass over warmer
waters, enhancing their convective potential energy,
and so the storm's intensity.


That does seem to explain the rapidity of the intensification
(note the area of high heat capacity north of Columbia):

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataph.../2007244ca.jpg



First, while enhanced convection does increase the
surface inflow/outflow aloft of TCs, it is conservation
of angular momentum that gives TCs their intensity
and circular shape. Indeed the CAPE measurements,
(Convective Available Potential Energy) are surprisingly low
in Tropical Cyclones - much less than over the Great Plains
in early summer.

Second, AGW is modeled to DECREASE the lapse rate in the tropics,
stabilizing the atmosphere and suppressing convection.
That is not happening:

http://climatewatcher.blogspot.com/

So you see Felix and say - aha! global warming!

I see Felix and say - aha! no global warming!

  #3  
Old September 3rd 07, 03:02 AM posted to sci.geo.geology,sci.space.history,alt.global-warming,alt.politics,uk.sci.weather
Roger Coppock
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Posts: 71
Default ...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.

On Sep 2, 6:43 pm, Al Bedo wrote:
[ . . . ]
Second, AGW is modeled to DECREASE the lapse
rate in the tropics, stabilizing the atmosphere
and suppressing convection.


Could you please give a source for this statement?

  #4  
Old September 3rd 07, 03:10 AM posted to sci.geo.geology,sci.space.history,alt.global-warming,alt.politics,uk.sci.weather
Jonathan
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 705
Default ...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.


"Al Bedo" wrote in message
...
Jonathan wrote:
Standard models earlier on predicted it would make it to a three
by landfall late next week. It not only smashed that prediction
but went from a category 1 to a 5 at over ...three times
the predicted rate..just today.

Global warming means we better get used to very large
hurricanes, they're becoming the norm instead
of the exception.


I posted this in 2005 when the more excitable
were hysterical. The theory of AGW enhancement
of Tropical Cyclones comes from the observation
of strengthening when storms pass over warmer
waters, enhancing their convective potential energy,
and so the storm's intensity.

First, while enhanced convection does increase the
surface inflow/outflow aloft of TCs, it is conservation
of angular momentum that gives TCs their intensity
and circular shape. Indeed the CAPE measurements,
(Convective Available Potential Energy) are surprisingly low
in Tropical Cyclones - much less than over the Great Plains
in early summer.

Second, AGW is modeled to DECREASE the lapse rate in the tropics,
stabilizing the atmosphere and suppressing convection.
That is not happening:





You're talking about atmospheric conditions, which are
highly variable. I'm talking about the true driver
of stronger storms, sea surface temps, which are far
more consistant and rising in tune with the recent rise
in greenhouse gasses.

When the shear is weak, the warmer waters will be waiting
and will win. Giving us storms that not only reach
major status more often, but they will be larger in size and
....race to the maximum... at spectacular rates.


THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS
OR SO...WHICH IS ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING
RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED. FELIX ....WILL BE PASSING
OVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007...cus.009.shtml?




s



http://climatewatcher.blogspot.com/

So you see Felix and say - aha! global warming!

I see Felix and say - aha! no global warming!


  #5  
Old September 3rd 07, 03:37 AM posted to sci.geo.geology,sci.space.history,alt.global-warming,alt.politics,uk.sci.weather
Al Bedo
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 5
Default ...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.

Roger Coppock wrote:
On Sep 2, 6:43 pm, Al Bedo wrote:
[ . . . ]
Second, AGW is modeled to DECREASE the lapse
rate in the tropics, stabilizing the atmosphere
and suppressing convection.


Could you please give a source for this statement?


You can look at model outputs from GISS and the CCM.

Other models have similar results.
  #6  
Old September 3rd 07, 03:46 AM posted to sci.geo.geology,sci.space.history,alt.global-warming,alt.politics,uk.sci.weather
Roger Coppock
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 71
Default ...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.

On Sep 2, 7:37 pm, Al Bedo wrote:
Roger Coppock wrote:
On Sep 2, 6:43 pm, Al Bedo wrote:
[ . . . ]
Second, AGW is modeled to DECREASE the lapse
rate in the tropics, stabilizing the atmosphere
and suppressing convection.


Could you please give a source for this statement?


You can look at model outputs from GISS and the CCM.


EXACTLY where can one do that and see the
tropical lapse rate decrease? A URL please?

  #7  
Old September 3rd 07, 04:18 AM posted to sci.geo.geology,sci.space.history,alt.global-warming,alt.politics,uk.sci.weather
Al Bedo
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 5
Default ...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.

Roger Coppock wrote:
On Sep 2, 7:37 pm, Al Bedo wrote:
Roger Coppock wrote:
On Sep 2, 6:43 pm, Al Bedo wrote:
[ . . . ]
Second, AGW is modeled to DECREASE the lapse
rate in the tropics, stabilizing the atmosphere
and suppressing convection.
Could you please give a source for this statement?

You can look at model outputs from GISS and the CCM.


EXACTLY where can one do that and see the
tropical lapse rate decrease? A URL please?


You clipped this one which shows GISS
versus RAOB and MSU:

http://climatewatcher.blogspot.com/

CCSM is similar:

http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/experiments...t4_ANN_T_c.png

Other modelers don't make the data quite as easy to access.
  #8  
Old September 3rd 07, 04:58 AM posted to sci.geo.geology,sci.space.history,alt.global-warming,alt.politics,uk.sci.weather
Phil Hays[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 8
Default ...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.

Bill Ward blathered on:

Hey, get a life.


--
Phil Hays

  #9  
Old September 3rd 07, 07:11 AM posted to sci.geo.geology,sci.space.history,alt.global-warming,alt.politics,uk.sci.weather
Roger Coppock
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 71
Default ...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.

On Sep 2, 8:18 pm, Al Bedo wrote:
[ . . . ]
CCSM is similar:

http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/experiments...5a.ES01-b30.00...


Please tell me if I am reading this correctly.

There are three graphs here,
two up top and one below.

top left is 2X CO2

top right is 1990

bottom is a difference of the top two
(2X CO2) - (1990)

That difference on the bottom shows
faster warming with increasing altitude
from ground level to about the 150 mb
level. This effect is centered in the
tropics. Which would show exactly what
you said it would, a decrease the tropical
tropospheric lapse rate.


  #10  
Old September 3rd 07, 03:52 PM posted to sci.geo.geology,sci.space.history,alt.global-warming,alt.politics,uk.sci.weather
Al Bedo
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 5
Default ...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.

Roger Coppock wrote:
On Sep 2, 8:18 pm, Al Bedo wrote:
[ . . . ]
CCSM is similar:

http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/experiments...5a.ES01-b30.00...


Please tell me if I am reading this correctly.

There are three graphs here,
two up top and one below.

top left is 2X CO2

top right is 1990

bottom is a difference of the top two
(2X CO2) - (1990)

That difference on the bottom shows
faster warming with increasing altitude
from ground level to about the 150 mb
level. This effect is centered in the
tropics. Which would show exactly what
you said it would, a decrease the tropical
tropospheric lapse rate.


Correct.
 




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