Management, mandate, and manned spaceflight

Jan C. Vorbrüggen wrote in
:

One in 999 is what NASA is shooting for in the next
generation space shuttle. That is a far cry from the joke set for
the current orbiter fleet which was about one in a million.

Do you have any cite for that nonsense?

If you mean the last sentence of his paragraph with "that nonsense",
that's straight from Feynman's appendix to the Commission Report, I
would think.

And then he (Daniel) exaggerated it by a factor of ten before passing it on
to us:

http://history.nasa.gov/rogersrep/v2appf.htm

"It appears that there are enormous differences of opinion as to the
probability of a failure with loss of vehicle and of human life. The
estimates range from roughly 1 in 100 to 1 in 100,000."
--
JRF

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On 28 Jul 2003 15:14:23 GMT, in a place far, far away, "Jorge R.
Frank" made the phosphor on my monitor glow in
such a way as to indicate that:

Jan C. Vorbrüggen wrote in
:

One in 999 is what NASA is shooting for in the next
generation space shuttle. That is a far cry from the joke set for
the current orbiter fleet which was about one in a million.

Do you have any cite for that nonsense?

If you mean the last sentence of his paragraph with "that nonsense",
that's straight from Feynman's appendix to the Commission Report, I
would think.

And then he (Daniel) exaggerated it by a factor of ten before passing it on
to us:

http://history.nasa.gov/rogersrep/v2appf.htm

"It appears that there are enormous differences of opinion as to the
probability of a failure with loss of vehicle and of human life. The
estimates range from roughly 1 in 100 to 1 in 100,000."

Even without that inflation factor, I have trouble seeing how some
unnamed person's opinion translates into "set for the orbiter fleet,"
which I would take to mean either a reliability estimate or a system
requirement.

--
simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole)
interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

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