Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Faster than Forecast?

Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Faster than Forecast?

http://www.newswise.com/articles/view/529498/

http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/seaice.shtml

http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU20...df?PHPSESSID=e

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kT wrote:

Another link :

http://cires.colorado.edu/events/mem.../2007/I25M.pdf

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http://orbit.medphys.ucl.ac.uk/orbit.html

On Apr 30, 6:10 pm, kT wrote:
Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Faster than Forecast?

http://www.newswise.com/articles/view/529498/

http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/seaice.shtml

http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU20...01362.pdf?PHPS...

People that pay attention to the data already knew this. People in
academia who play video games with models are the ones surprised.

Exxon Liars & Thieves wrote:
On Apr 30, 6:10 pm, kT wrote:
Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Faster than Forecast?

http://www.newswise.com/articles/view/529498/

http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/seaice.shtml

http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU20...01362.pdf?PHPS...

People that pay attention to the data already knew this. People in
academia who play video games with models are the ones surprised.

It's not just seasonal sea ice extent either, it's all the indicators.

Sea level rise, from 1.8 mm/year up to 3.2 mm/year.

Temperature, weather, almost daily reports.

Flora and fauna, disappearing, moving.

Here it comes, folks, get ready.

Welcome to the Eocene!

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Get A Free Orbiter Space Flight Simulator :
http://orbit.medphys.ucl.ac.uk/orbit.html

I think it's okay to download this and print it out from the NCAR
website, for people who are too lazy to check out the hyperlinks.

Was it Nirvana who sang, "It's the end of the world, and I feel
fine"? Or am I thinking of some other group?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QUOTE:
" The study indicates that, because of the disparity between the
computer models and actual observations, the shrinking of summertime
ice is about 30 years ahead of the climate model projections. "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


News Release

UCAR Communications


Arctic Ice Retreating More Quickly Than Computer Models Project
April 30, 2007

BOULDER-Arctic sea ice is melting at a significantly faster rate than
projected by even the most advanced computer models, a new study
concludes. The research, by scientists at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Colorado's National
Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), shows that the Arctic's ice cover is
retreating more rapidly than estimated by any of the 18 computer
models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in
preparing its 2007 assessments.


The study, "Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Faster Than Forecast?" will appear
tomorrow in the online edition of Geophysical Research Letters. It was
led by Julienne Stroeve of the NSIDC and funded by the National
Science Foundation, which is NCAR's principal sponsor, and by NASA.

"While the ice is disappearing faster than the computer models
indicate, both observations and the models point in the same
direction: the Arctic is losing ice at an increasingly rapid pace and
the impact of greenhouse gases is growing," says NCAR scientist Marika
Holland, one of the study's co-authors.

The authors compared model simulations of past climate with
observations by satellites and other instruments. They found that, on
average, the models simulated a loss in September ice cover of 2.5
percent per decade from 1953 to 2006. The fastest rate of September
retreat in any individual model was 5.4 percent per decade. (September
marks the yearly minimum of sea ice in the Arctic.)

But newly available data sets, blending early aircraft and ship
reports with more recent satellite measurements that are considered
more reliable than the earlier records, show that the September ice
actually declined at a rate of about 7.8 percent per decade during the
1953-2006 period.

"This suggests that current model projections may in fact provide a
conservative estimate of future Arctic change, and that the summer
Arctic sea ice may disappear considerably earlier than IPCC
projections," says Stroeve.

Thirty years ahead of schedule

The study indicates that, because of the disparity between the
computer models and actual observations, the shrinking of summertime
ice is about 30 years ahead of the climate model projections. As a
result, the Arctic could be seasonally free of sea ice earlier than
the IPCC- projected timeframe of any time from 2050 to well beyond
2100.

The authors speculate that the computer models may fail to capture the
full impact of increased carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere. Whereas the models indicate that about half of the ice
loss from 1979 to 2006 was due to increased greenhouse gases, and the
other half due to natural variations in the climate system, the new
study indicates that greenhouse gases may be playing a significantly
greater role.

There are a number of factors that may lead to the low rates of
simulated sea ice loss. Several models overestimate the thickness of
the present-day sea ice and the models may also fail to fully capture
changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation that transport heat to
polar regions.

March ice

Although the loss of ice for March is far less dramatic than the
September loss, the models underestimate it by a wide margin as well.
The study concludes that the actual rate of sea ice loss in March,
which averaged about 1.8 percent per decade in the 1953 -2006 period,
was three times larger than the mean from the computer models. March
is typically the month when Arctic sea ice is at its most extensive.

The Arctic is especially sensitive to climate change partly because
regions of sea ice, which reflect sunlight back into space and provide
a cooling impact, are disappearing. In contrast, darker areas of open
water, which are expanding, absorb sunlight and increase temperatures.
This feedback loop has played a role in the increasingly rapid loss of
ice in recent years, which accelerated to 9.1 percent per decade from
1979 to 2006 according to satellite observations.

Walt Meier, Ted Scambos, and Mark Serreze, all at NSIDC, also co-
authored the study.

john fernbach wrote:
I think it's okay to download this and print it out from the NCAR
website, for people who are too lazy to check out the hyperlinks.

Was it Nirvana who sang, "It's the end of the world, and I feel
fine"? Or am I thinking of some other group?

The guy killed himself -- he doesn't feel fine or anything. His
girlfriend drank his blood as O remember.

Don't say you haven't seen this:
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.e...rch+this+group
http://groups.google.com/groups/sear...t=0& filter=0

Data trumps theory. Data trumps models.

http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Arctic_Ice_Melt.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Mystery_Solve...ry_Solved.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Bebinca/Bebinca_01.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Bebinca/ioke_...a_compare.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Bebinca_to_Al...o_Alaska2.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Bebinca_into_...o_Alaska2.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_5/IOKE_into_Arctic.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_5/Shanshan_Tornadoes.html

On Apr 30, 8:55 pm, Exxon Liars & Thieves
wrote:

Data trumps theory. Data trumps models.

http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Arctic_Ice_Me...Tornadoes.html

Exxon Liars -- I just looked at one of your hyperlinks on the 2006
heat engine "Bebinca."

Wow. Thank you for the information.

And no, I hadn't seen that set of satellite photos or
the accompanying text.

BTW, a picky point of English grammar - the link got the
word "it's" wrong in describing Bebina and what it means.

When we're writing about possession, about "belonging to it,"
the correct spelling is "its." Whenever we write "it's," the
meaning being conveyed is "it is."

But this is me, as a writer, picking fly **** out of the pepper --
focusing on minutiae. The information on "Bebinca" is
important, and ominous. Again, thanks for the scientific scoop.

On Apr 30, 6:46 pm, john fernbach wrote:
[ . . . ]
Was it Nirvana who sang, "It's the end of the world, and I feel
fine"? Or am I thinking of some other group?

It was REM, I believe. I, however, definitely do
NOT feel fine about it. In fact, as long as were
using phrases fro popular culture, "I'm as mad
as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore."
http://www.americanrhetoric.com/Movi...hnetwork2.html


IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT (AND I FEEL FINE)

That's great it starts with an earthquake
Birds and snakes and aeroplanes
Lenny Bruce is not afraid
Eye of a hurricane listen to yourself churn
World serves its own needs dummy serve your own needs
Speed it up a notch speed grunt nose street burn
The ladder starts to clatter with dinner fight down height
Wire in a fire room represent the southern gangs
In a government for hire and a combat site
Lefty wasn't coming in a hurry
With the furies breathing down your neck
Team by team reporters grapple trunk tethered crop
Look at that low plane fine then
Uh oh overflow population cornered
But it'll do save yourself serve yourself
World serves its own needs listen to your heartbeat
Tell me that the reds are in the reverend in the right right?
You patriotic patriotic slam fight right might feeling pretty psyched

It's the end of the world as we know it
It's the end of the world as we know it
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine

Six o'clock TV hour don't get caught foreign tower
Slash and burn return listen to yourself churn lock him in uniform
And book-burning blood-letting every motive escalate
Automotive incinerate light a candle light a votive
Step down step down watching heel crush crush
Uh oh this means no fear cavalier renegade steer clear
A tournament a tournament a tournament of lies
Offer me solutions offer me alternatives and I decline

It's the end of the world as we know it
(It's time I had some time alone)
It's the end of the world as we know it
(It's time I had some time alone)
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine

The other night I drifted nice continental drift to find
Mount Saint Edelite Leonard Bernstein
Leonid Brezhnev Lenny Bruce and Lester Bangs
Birthday party cheesecake jellybeans boom
You symbiotic patriotic slam foot neck right right

http://www.ivan.com/lyrics1.html

"john fernbach" wrote in message
oups.com...
I think it's okay to download this and print it out from the NCAR
website, for people who are too lazy to check out the hyperlinks.

Was it Nirvana who sang, "It's the end of the world, and I feel
fine"? Or am I thinking of some other group?

"It's the End of the World as We Know It (and I Feel Fine)" by R.E.M.
It's the only understandable line in the whole song.




QUOTE:
" The study indicates that, because of the disparity between the
computer models and actual observations, the shrinking of summertime
ice is about 30 years ahead of the climate model projections. "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


News Release

UCAR Communications


Arctic Ice Retreating More Quickly Than Computer Models Project
April 30, 2007

BOULDER-Arctic sea ice is melting at a significantly faster rate than
projected by even the most advanced computer models, a new study
concludes. The research, by scientists at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Colorado's National
Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), shows that the Arctic's ice cover is
retreating more rapidly than estimated by any of the 18 computer
models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in
preparing its 2007 assessments.


The study, "Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Faster Than Forecast?" will appear
tomorrow in the online edition of Geophysical Research Letters. It was
led by Julienne Stroeve of the NSIDC and funded by the National
Science Foundation, which is NCAR's principal sponsor, and by NASA.

"While the ice is disappearing faster than the computer models
indicate, both observations and the models point in the same
direction: the Arctic is losing ice at an increasingly rapid pace and
the impact of greenhouse gases is growing," says NCAR scientist Marika
Holland, one of the study's co-authors.

The authors compared model simulations of past climate with
observations by satellites and other instruments. They found that, on
average, the models simulated a loss in September ice cover of 2.5
percent per decade from 1953 to 2006. The fastest rate of September
retreat in any individual model was 5.4 percent per decade. (September
marks the yearly minimum of sea ice in the Arctic.)

But newly available data sets, blending early aircraft and ship
reports with more recent satellite measurements that are considered
more reliable than the earlier records, show that the September ice
actually declined at a rate of about 7.8 percent per decade during the
1953-2006 period.

"This suggests that current model projections may in fact provide a
conservative estimate of future Arctic change, and that the summer
Arctic sea ice may disappear considerably earlier than IPCC
projections," says Stroeve.

Thirty years ahead of schedule

The study indicates that, because of the disparity between the
computer models and actual observations, the shrinking of summertime
ice is about 30 years ahead of the climate model projections. As a
result, the Arctic could be seasonally free of sea ice earlier than
the IPCC- projected timeframe of any time from 2050 to well beyond
2100.

The authors speculate that the computer models may fail to capture the
full impact of increased carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere. Whereas the models indicate that about half of the ice
loss from 1979 to 2006 was due to increased greenhouse gases, and the
other half due to natural variations in the climate system, the new
study indicates that greenhouse gases may be playing a significantly
greater role.

There are a number of factors that may lead to the low rates of
simulated sea ice loss. Several models overestimate the thickness of
the present-day sea ice and the models may also fail to fully capture
changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation that transport heat to
polar regions.

March ice

Although the loss of ice for March is far less dramatic than the
September loss, the models underestimate it by a wide margin as well.
The study concludes that the actual rate of sea ice loss in March,
which averaged about 1.8 percent per decade in the 1953 -2006 period,
was three times larger than the mean from the computer models. March
is typically the month when Arctic sea ice is at its most extensive.

The Arctic is especially sensitive to climate change partly because
regions of sea ice, which reflect sunlight back into space and provide
a cooling impact, are disappearing. In contrast, darker areas of open
water, which are expanding, absorb sunlight and increase temperatures.
This feedback loop has played a role in the increasingly rapid loss of
ice in recent years, which accelerated to 9.1 percent per decade from
1979 to 2006 according to satellite observations.

Walt Meier, Ted Scambos, and Mark Serreze, all at NSIDC, also co-
authored the study.

On Apr 30, 10:52 pm, "Ken" wrote:
"john fernbach" wrote in message

oups.com...

I think it's okay to download this and print it out from the NCAR
website, for people who are too lazy to check out the hyperlinks.

Was it Nirvana who sang, "It's the end of the world, and I feel
fine"? Or am I thinking of some other group?

"It's the End of the World as We Know It (and I Feel Fine)" by R.E.M.
It's the only understandable line in the whole song.

Ol'kornholer should stick to show tunes.