...Hurricane Dean... Third Strongest Ever Recorded...

On Thu, 23 Aug 2007 15:22:39 -0700, in a place far, far away, Neil
Gerace made the phosphor on my monitor glow in
such a way as to indicate that:

On Aug 24, 2:04 am, Talk-n-Dog wrote:

It's terminal, but on the bright side, they won't be producing any Co2
to kill he planet once they perish. So they actually get their wish in
the end.

Except during decomposition.

That's a bounded amount, though. Perhaps the sooner they get on with
it, the better. From the standpoint of saving the planet, of
course...

"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...

Actually, going back and reading in context, that's not what I meant,
neither.


Is that the wine talking?



..

"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...

"Jonathan" wrote in message
.. .

"Harley" wrote in message
. com...

Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen
all too regularly these days.


A 15 year spead, and that's all too regular?


In the last three years, we've seen the Atlantic hurricane
season break all time records for number of storms, the
lowest pressure ever, the smallest eye ever (2 miles!!!), and
the most destructive ever.

Most of the biggest records have all fallen in the last three years.
And the very first hurricane of this season is right up there
with the strongest of all time. It's average size mercilessly


I meant mercifully, that's bugged me all day.



helped spare a large population center.

Hurricane Dean had hurricane force winds out to about
60 miles most of the time. While Katrina and Wilma
in 2005 extended out about 100 miles. Making them
much more likely to hit a large population area.



Although last year was a very "boring" season with no US landfalls and at
sea activity supressed by dry air and an El Nino.

Also bear in mind that despite the ferocity of Dean the Atlantic is
experiencing slightly below normal activity for August. There has only
been
one storm so far this month, with the models not predicting anything to
spin
up for the next few days at least.


In another post I documented where the latest predictions
are that global warming should only effect the intensity
and size of hurricanes, not so much their numbers
or distribution.





Cat 5 hurricanes are not unusual


Category 5's are generally unusual. Cat 4 and 5's are
roughly 10% of the total. A US landfalling cat 5 is
one in a hundred. And the US is a big target.


Table 5. Hurricane strikes on the mainland United States
(1851-2006)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-TPC-5.pdf

Category Strikes

5 3
4 18
3 75
2 73
1 110

TOTAL 279
MAJOR 96
Major hurricanes are categories 3,4 & 5.


People down here have pretty much accepted the
idea that global warming has changed things dramatically.
First Katrina opened everyone's minds to the possibility.
But then right after Katrina came Wilma, the lowest
pressure storm of all time. Wilma drove the point home
that Katrina wasn't a fluke. Both storms were also much larger
in size than just about anyother hurricane observed
except for maybe Gilbert in 88. It was only by the grace of god
that Wilma weakened to a cat 3 just hours before landfall
or we would've had another Katrina size tragedy in Florida.

And with FEMA maxed out with Katrina, Florida would've
been on our own for weeks.

The point I'm trying to get across in that we cannot assume
any linear or predictable relationships between global warming
---ocean warming and hurricanes. A slight change in the
input of such a grand complex system can have
dramatic changes in the way the system releases
it's heat through storms...the output.


It's not a nice proportional relationship where x amount
of rise in ocean temps lead to y stronger storms.

It's analogous to cracking a whip.

A seemingly small movement at the input of a non-linear
system can produce the absolute maximum practical response
at the output.

We need to get used to the fact that category 4 or 5 storms
will become the rule rather than the exception. And they'll
be far larger in size as well increasing the chance of hitting
larger population areas. And remember one of most
chilling facts to open eyes down here....

.....Katrina and Wilma were too large to evacuation from!!!

When the eye is half the size of a state it's just not possible
to predict the path soon enough to safely evacuate. It's safer
to stay put as your more likely to evacuate into the path
or get caught on the road, the worst case of all.



for the Atlantic during the active phase of
the AMO. It is the steering currents and the environmental conditions that
determine whether they will strike land and at what strength. Dean hit as
a
cat 5 because firstly the SSTs were very warm along its path and the wind
shear was low and secondly it was moving quickly which meant there was
less
interaction of the outer circulation with the land to weaken the storm
before the eye came ashore.

Adam

On Thu, 23 Aug 2007 19:23:01 -0400, in a place far, far away,
"Jonathan" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:


"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...

Actually, going back and reading in context, that's not what I meant,
neither.


Is that the wine talking?

No. Is that the whine talking?

"Talk-n-Dog" wrote in message
.. .
Captain Compassion wrote:
On Thu, 23 Aug 2007 12:59:20 -0400, Talk-n-Dog
wrote:



So the theory is that an increase of atmospheric CO2 from 280 PPM to
380 PPM causes certain segments of the population to go insane?



I think the claim of the global warming deniers is that a recent increase
of some 30% in co2 levels...rising almost 2% per year...should
have little or no effect.

I find that absolutely astonishing.

Just wait until one year from today.

The entire world will be watching the 08 Beijing Olympics
take place in one of the most polluted cities in the world
due to the massive amounts of coal they use.

That scene will shock many people. It will galvanize
the simple truth that without a replacement for
fossil fuels, and soon, our future is as dim as
the Beijing skyline.

So many different trends, all converging at once
and at one place.



Will
there ever be a cure for the leftist gene?


It's terminal, but on the bright side, they won't be producing any Co2
to kill he planet once they perish. So they actually get their wish in
the end.

--
http://OutSourcedNews.com
Our constitution protects criminals, drunks and U.S. Senators. Which at
times are, one and the same...

The problem with the global warming theory, is that a theory is like a
bowl of ice-cream, it only takes a little dab of bull**** to ruin the
whole thing. - Gump That -

On Thu, 23 Aug 2007 21:16:02 -0400, "Jonathan"
wrote:


"Talk-n-Dog" wrote in message
. ..
Captain Compassion wrote:
On Thu, 23 Aug 2007 12:59:20 -0400, Talk-n-Dog
wrote:



So the theory is that an increase of atmospheric CO2 from 280 PPM to
380 PPM causes certain segments of the population to go insane?



I think the claim of the global warming deniers is that a recent increase
of some 30% in co2 levels...rising almost 2% per year...should
have little or no effect.

I find that absolutely astonishing.

Just wait until one year from today.

The entire world will be watching the 08 Beijing Olympics
take place in one of the most polluted cities in the world
due to the massive amounts of coal they use.

That scene will shock many people. It will galvanize
the simple truth that without a replacement for
fossil fuels, and soon, our future is as dim as
the Beijing skyline.

So many different trends, all converging at once
and at one place.

There is little more CO2 in Beijing than anywhere else in the world.
There may be more other pollutants. The scene won't shock me. I grew
up in the LA of the 50s and 60s.




Will
there ever be a cure for the leftist gene?


It's terminal, but on the bright side, they won't be producing any Co2
to kill he planet once they perish. So they actually get their wish in
the end.

--
http://OutSourcedNews.com
Our constitution protects criminals, drunks and U.S. Senators. Which at
times are, one and the same...

The problem with the global warming theory, is that a theory is like a
bowl of ice-cream, it only takes a little dab of bull**** to ruin the
whole thing. - Gump That -

--
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to
escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius

Wherever I go it will be well with me, for it was well with me here, not
on account of the place, but of my judgments which I shall carry away
with me, for no one can deprive me of these; on the contrary, they alone
are my property, and cannot be taken away, and to possess them suffices
me wherever I am or whatever I do. -- EPICTETUS

Joseph R. Darancette

Adam Lea wrote:

The 70's and 80' were during the negative phase of the AMO

Hey look, Adam Lea is ****ing William Gray!

--
Get A Free Orbiter Space Flight Simulator :
http://orbit.medphys.ucl.ac.uk/orbit.html

"Jonathan" wrote in message
.. .


The point I'm trying to get across in that we cannot assume
any linear or predictable relationships between global warming
---ocean warming and hurricanes. A slight change in the
input of such a grand complex system can have
dramatic changes in the way the system releases
it's heat through storms...the output.


It's not a nice proportional relationship where x amount
of rise in ocean temps lead to y stronger storms.

It's analogous to cracking a whip.

A seemingly small movement at the input of a non-linear
system can produce the absolute maximum practical response
at the output.


Absolute nonsense. The physics of whip cracking is
well known, simple and completely explained by the
law of conservation of momentum in a closed system.
Are you suggesting that hurricane systems behave in
such a simple and predictable way? I suggest that you
study the work of Lorenz wrt to weather systems and
at the very least consider some competing hypotheses
- not just those that are currently fashionable and which
conform to the agenda of our political masters.

Alan.

OM wrote:
On Thu, 23 Aug 2007 13:35:56 -0400, Talk-n-Dog
wrote:

I don't drink rocket fuel.

Then maybe you better start.

....I've a better idea. Elfritz is a confirmed neo-Nazi, anti-semitic
troll. File a complaint with his ISP, then toss the goosestepping
dograper into your killfile and put him out of our misery.

Please.

OM
just pulling his leg, didn't want to tear it off and beat him to death
with it.

--
http://OutSourcedNews.com
Our constitution protects criminals, drunks and U.S. Senators. Which at
times are, one and the same...

The problem with the global warming theory, is that a theory is like a
bowl of ice-cream, it only takes a little dab of bull**** to ruin the
whole thing. - Gump That -

"Robert Casey" wrote in message
. com...


One would think you would get "out of the bullseye". Even animals
know when to move. Oh, I guess you want the government to do something
so you don't have to.


Yeah, why dont they send the Air Force with bombers to drop a few nukes
on the hurricanes to destroy them before they trash the USA? :-)

-------- what makes you think that would have any effect whatsoever?