When will we be able to afford space settlement?

At least, cheap enough at today's oil prices, though the arrival of 25
TW of SSP capacity would probably push oil down towards $5 per barrel.

If, of course, we have it onstream before the oil shortage starts to pinch in a
serious way.

In article ,
John Ordover wrote:

The billions in damage will be nothing compared to the trillions in
increased farm products and such from temperate zones moving north in
the northern hemisphere and south in the southern. Yes, low-lying
areas may be flooded, but the trade-off is well worth it.

11 of the 15 cities with populations in excess of 10 million
people are located at sea level (well, just above except during
storm surges and floods). I don't quite know how the following
fact escaped you but in advanced nations, wealth is produced primarily
in cities: argiculture makes a contribution that is much small than
the goods and services produced by farming. Trading NYC for yet more
marginally profitable farmland in northern Manitoba is a very sucky
trade.

In fact, about 1/3 of the human population lives below 100
meters. Even though low elevation regions are a small percentage of
the human range, the population densities are much higher near sea
level than elsewhere.

What irks me is that global warming is presented as a negative with no
reasoning at all except fear of change. The argument about whether it
is occuring rages - but no one is doing studies on what the total
impact would be, positive or negative.

Tell you what. We'll drop you into Bangladesh (population
~140 million people, elevation ~200 meters, with regions no more
than 4 m elevation with population densities in excess of 1500 people
per km^2) and you can tell them all about the benifits of global
warming.
--
"The keywords for tonight are Caution and Flammability."
JFK, _Bubba Ho Tep_

In article ,
James Nicoll wrote:
In article ,
John Ordover wrote:

The billions in damage will be nothing compared to the trillions in
increased farm products and such from temperate zones moving north in
the northern hemisphere and south in the southern. Yes, low-lying
areas may be flooded, but the trade-off is well worth it.

11 of the 15 cities with populations in excess of 10 million
people are located at sea level (well, just above except during
storm surges and floods). I don't quite know how the following
fact escaped you but in advanced nations, wealth is produced primarily
in cities: argiculture makes a contribution that is much small than
the goods and services produced by farming.

AH, crap! replace "farming" with "cities".

--
"The keywords for tonight are Caution and Flammability."
JFK, _Bubba Ho Tep_

"John Ordover" wrote in message
om...
SPS, with current technology, are not cost effective and their
potential as weaponry is so high that they will be politically
impossible to deploy.

Their potential as weaponry is comparable to a coal-fired power plant's
potential as weaponry in as much as one could mount a mega-death laser
weapon onto it.

The existing microwave array of a SPS has zero usefulness as a weapon, as
has been explained to you more than once.

--


Regards,
Mike Combs
----------------------------------------------------------------------
We should ask, critically and with appeal to the numbers, whether the
best site for a growing advancing industrial society is Earth, the
Moon, Mars, some other planet, or somewhere else entirely.
Surprisingly, the answer will be inescapable - the best site is
"somewhere else entirely."

Gerard O'Neill - "The High Frontier"

I can see a meeting some years hence (the sooner the better).

The US & Lunar Governments, acting through a consortium of all the major
energy companies, have constructed a Solar Power Satellite from Lunar
Materials. In a common ceremony, the President of the United States and the
President of the Republic of Luna throw switches activating the microwave
transmissions. The satellite power is small by comparison with Hoover Dam
and other hydro generators, but the "handwriting is on the wall" -- indeed,
the Lunar President sends each Arabian Government a telegram with four
words:

"MENE, MENE, TEKEL, UPHARSIN."

OPEC is in shambles, for the Federal Government & Oil Importing Companies
have begun canceling contracts with Arabian Governments and ARAMCO. Gasoline
prices begin falling due to lack of demand.

--
Leonard C Robinson
"The Historian Remembers, and speculates on what might have been.
"The Visionary Remembers, and speculates on what may yet be."

In article Z1Vgc.28670$ru4.27496@attbi_s52,
Leonard Robinson wrote:
I can see a meeting some years hence (the sooner the better).

The US & Lunar Governments, acting through a consortium of all the major
energy companies, have constructed a Solar Power Satellite from Lunar
Materials. In a common ceremony, the President of the United States and the
President of the Republic of Luna throw switches activating the microwave
transmissions. The satellite power is small by comparison with Hoover Dam
and other hydro generators, but the "handwriting is on the wall" -- indeed,
the Lunar President sends each Arabian Government a telegram with four
words:

"MENE, MENE, TEKEL, UPHARSIN."

OPEC is in shambles, for the Federal Government & Oil Importing Companies
have begun canceling contracts with Arabian Governments and ARAMCO. Gasoline
prices begin falling due to lack of demand.


As I recall ten American states have native oil industries. Those ten
states have a total of 204 Electoral Votes between them. Pantsing the oil
industry by suddenly shrinking its market [1] seems likely to have domestic
repercussions.

James Nicoll

1: Ignoring issues like 'how do you turn sunlight into plastic as cheaply
as oil can be converted?'


--
"The keywords for tonight are Caution and Flammability."
JFK, _Bubba Ho Tep_

On Mon, 19 Apr 2004 12:52:55 -0500, in a place far, far away, "Mike
Combs" made the phosphor on my
monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that:

"John Ordover" wrote in message
. com...
SPS, with current technology, are not cost effective and their
potential as weaponry is so high that they will be politically
impossible to deploy.

Their potential as weaponry is comparable to a coal-fired power plant's
potential as weaponry in as much as one could mount a mega-death laser
weapon onto it.

The existing microwave array of a SPS has zero usefulness as a weapon, as
has been explained to you more than once.

Most stupid things he says have been explained to him more than once.
He persists in repeating them, regardless.

(G EddieA95) wrote in message ...
the near term problem is too much warming, so you want to
reduce insolation.


No you don't. The world is running out of oil. We need every watt we can
capture from nonoil sources. And with oil getting more expensive, CO2 and its
associated greenhouse effect will become self-terminating.

That doesn't mean that we won't overheat before oil runs out. Further,
we have other carbon-based energy sources as well. Finally, there's
the matter that a significant portion (somewhere around 15-25%) of CO2
released in the atmosphere comes from destruction of forests.

Now, if you sunshield were in fact a gigantic SPS, you may have a point.

The economics don't favor this right now. If there were a way to say
bootstrap SPS production from a low capital investment on the Moon,
then we'd be talking.


Karl Hallowell

(James Nicoll) wrote in message ...
James Nicoll wrote:

It strikes me that if you are putting in a dimmer switch,
you might also want a way to increase insolation. Any thoughts?

The local paper reported the other day that sunlight reaching the
earth surface has already dimmed by about 10% in the last 50 years.
The problem with dimming sunlight is that oxygen production by plants
is hugely influenced by reduced sunlight. IIRC a 10% reduction in
sunlight gets more than a 10% reduction in oxygen production.
Harmon

(James Nicoll) wrote in message ...
In article ,
John Ordover wrote:

The billions in damage will be nothing compared to the trillions in
increased farm products and such from temperate zones moving north in
the northern hemisphere and south in the southern. Yes, low-lying
areas may be flooded, but the trade-off is well worth it.

11 of the 15 cities with populations in excess of 10 million
people are located at sea level (well, just above except during
storm surges and floods). I don't quite know how the following
fact escaped you but in advanced nations, wealth is produced primarily
in cities: argiculture makes a contribution that is much small than
the goods and services produced by farming. Trading NYC for yet more
marginally profitable farmland in northern Manitoba is a very sucky
trade.

In fact, about 1/3 of the human population lives below 100
meters. Even though low elevation regions are a small percentage of
the human range, the population densities are much higher near sea
level than elsewhere.

Given that climate change in general and rise of sea level in
particular is likely to happen over decades at the least, and likely
centuries, I think its well within the ability for us to adapt. It
won't happen fast enough to threaten economic interests of sea level
cities, and those that are slowly submerged will slowly mitigate it,
with dikes, stilts, new construction, etcetera.

All this panick seems to stem from the belief that everything will
happen overnight, and it will all be universally bad. Its just change,
and its only fast compared to other periods of climate change.

What irks me is that global warming is presented as a negative with no
reasoning at all except fear of change. The argument about whether it
is occuring rages - but no one is doing studies on what the total
impact would be, positive or negative.

Tell you what. We'll drop you into Bangladesh (population
~140 million people, elevation ~200 meters, with regions no more
than 4 m elevation with population densities in excess of 1500 people
per km^2) and you can tell them all about the benifits of global
warming.

All people, no capital. Unless they produce something, they don't
count. They can bloody well move, and they won't do a thing about it,
because they can't. Not to worry, they'll have time over the fifty
plus years it takes.