CEV development cost rumbles

The 23Feb04 issue of Aviation Week reports that NASA is telling Congress
that the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), the space agencies latest and
greatest orbiter replacement, will cost $15B to develop. Earlier NASA
estimated that the Orbital SpacePlane (OSP), last year's super-duper orbiter
replacement, would cost $10-13B (todays bucks). NASA keeps turning the crank
and coming up with the same numbers. The development cost of the original
orbiter was about $14B in today's money.

None of this is surprising because, even though the orbiter was designed
over 30 years ago, spacecraft technology hasn't changed much at all. The
CEV, the OSP and the orbiter all use the same technology, namely, Apollo
heritage technology. So when measured in constant dollars, the development
cost for these vehicles will be about the same, despite significant
differences in size and weight. Why? Because the cost of airframe structure
is a relatively small part of the development cost. It's the complex systems
(avionics, environmental control/life support, guidance, navigation,
communication, flight computer/software, hydraulics, thermal control, RCS,
APS, etc.) that determine the development cost and these systems are
essentially the same regardless of the size of the vehicle. There have been
no major breakthroughs in these complex systems during the last 30 years
that will cause a significant decrease in theirdevelopment cost.

Later
Ray Schmitt