shuttle replacement

bob haller safety advocate wrote:
http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1007/21boeing/

What is missing from the discussion 'until now :-)' is the operational cost of
all these alternative plans. Do these capsules land on land or water? Are they
reusable? With Orion, I was convinced that at the end of the day we'd end up
with costs nearly equivalent to what we have now with the shuttle. You know
the old saw about the time required to finish a project always expands to fill
the time available? Same goes for cost. You budget at $600 million a flight
and lo and behold that's what it ends up costing you, and it doesn't matter
what shape or form it takes.

I'm not so interested in the style of how you do it as much as I am in the
cost to do it, over and over....

It's that latter part where I see an advantage for a winged reusable vehicle.
But as Derek L. liked to say, it all depends on the flight rate. Right now, I
don't see a rate that would justify it. Maybe Bigelow will be an enabler, but
it isn't clear to me right now that it will be.

Dave