Stargazing in Iran

Paul Schlyter wrote:

snip

Our last total solar eclipse here was on 3 May 1715 (Gregorian date) - it
gave us a nice 4 minute totality (which is really long for our high
latitude) and also caused a great scandal: all the almanacs published in
Stockholm for 1715 failed to predict the totality in Stockholm, which thus
came quite unexpected! Much because of that the Royal Swedish Academy of
Sciences was given the exclusive right to publish almanacs here from 1747
and during the next 225 years - not until 1973 were others again allowed
to publish almanacs in Sweden.


What was the nature of the error that caused the missed prediction?
Miscalculation or a methodological problem?

--
Odysseus

Paul Schlyter wrote:

There you'll be able to view the ground paths of all total and annular
solar eclipses from 2000 BC (aka -1999) to 3000 AD (aka +3000). Thanks
to that site I know that the next total solar eclipse in my own home
town, Stockholm, occurs on 24 March 2927 !!!!


Drat! Monday, 24 March 2927, happens to be my bowling night.

--
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Mark Gingrich San Leandro, California

"Mark Gingrich" wrote

Thanks
to that site I know that the next total solar eclipse in my own home
town, Stockholm, occurs on 24 March 2927 !!!!

Drat! Monday, 24 March 2927, happens to be my bowling night.

I wonder who your team sponsor will be!?

Howard Lester wrote:
Drat! Monday, 24 March 2927, happens to be my bowling night.

I wonder who your team sponsor will be!?

Picosoft Windowplex XXCX: Where wollen you want to post-warp tonight?

--
Brian Tung
The Astronomy Corner at http://astro.isi.edu/
Unofficial C5+ Home Page at http://astro.isi.edu/c5plus/
The PleiadAtlas Home Page at http://astro.isi.edu/pleiadatlas/
My Own Personal FAQ (SAA) at http://astro.isi.edu/reference/faq.txt

Mike,

I am very well aware that about 2/3 of the population is under 30.
It's very possible though ( I could be wrong though) that I am just a
tad
older than you and do remember the hostage crisis.

No one in Iran ever apologized for it and yes apparently the Shah was
not such a great guy and yes we have from time to time supported
leaders who were poor choices.

I am also very aware of the loses incurred during the Iraq-Iran war.

I accept that you have visited Iran many times and I have not.

From what I understand you are in the Travel business and I assume that
you make some money from it. Maybe a lot maybe just a little.

As I said, I do remember the hostage crisis. And during my Senior year
at Xavier University we did have a young lady who was from Iran and she
was scared for her family.

My expertise is political science and apparently not much has changed
in 25 years.

They are still led by a bunch of clerics who are marching to their own
drummer. They still support and promote terrorism. And they have sent
their folks to fight in Iraq too.

As Vahe wrote they do have the responsibility to own up to "electing"
( if you can really call any election they have valid) a hardliner.
They have to live up to the fact that apparently they can't or will not
choose a new government that is more interested in caring for their own
people than promoting and exporting terrorism.

And it's not just Americans that are upset with Iran it's the rest of
the world too.

Just as much as when some Americans who are more fundamentalist than
American, chose George Bush to lead us.

And most of the world is unhappy ( as they should be ) with our choice
and the war in Iraq that we started because now Iraq is another hotbed
of terrorism.

At least in the United States we can choose our Congress every 2 years
and at least 1/3 of the Senate. Every 4 years we can choose a new
president.

They can't do that it Iran.

Do not get me wrong, of course there are nice folks in Iran.

They just haven't figured out yet that they need to change their
government.

That is their own job though, not ours and it's pretty apparent that
when we decide it's our job that's when we get into trouble

In article ,
Odysseus wrote:

Paul Schlyter wrote:

snip

Our last total solar eclipse here was on 3 May 1715 (Gregorian date) - it
gave us a nice 4 minute totality (which is really long for our high
latitude) and also caused a great scandal: all the almanacs published in
Stockholm for 1715 failed to predict the totality in Stockholm, which thus
came quite unexpected! Much because of that the Royal Swedish Academy of
Sciences was given the exclusive right to publish almanacs here from 1747
and during the next 225 years - not until 1973 were others again allowed
to publish almanacs in Sweden.

What was the nature of the error that caused the missed prediction?
Miscalculation or a methodological problem?

It's a bit hard to find out now of course, 290 years after it happened...
But the most likely reason is incompetence - these almanacs weren't
published by astronomers.

--
----------------------------------------------------------------
Paul Schlyter, Grev Turegatan 40, SE-114 38 Stockholm, SWEDEN
e-mail: pausch at stockholm dot bostream dot se
WWW: http://stjarnhimlen.se/

In article ,
Mark Gingrich wrote:

Paul Schlyter wrote:

There you'll be able to view the ground paths of all total and annular
solar eclipses from 2000 BC (aka -1999) to 3000 AD (aka +3000). Thanks
to that site I know that the next total solar eclipse in my own home
town, Stockholm, occurs on 24 March 2927 !!!!

Drat! Monday, 24 March 2927, happens to be my bowling night.

Fortunately for you, the solar eclipse occurs in daytime. So you can watch
the eclipse during the day, and then go bowling the following night.

--
----------------------------------------------------------------
Paul Schlyter, Grev Turegatan 40, SE-114 38 Stockholm, SWEDEN
e-mail: pausch at stockholm dot bostream dot se
WWW: http://stjarnhimlen.se/

I might remind everyone that there are reputable tour groups such as
David Levy's & of course Sky & Telescope & Astronomy Mags.

Being in the Travel business for just a few years and another member of
my family being in it since the 1960's you quickly learn that you
shouldn't pick fights with anyone because you never know who might be
looking to go on a tour and they can decide not to go with your group.

The customer may not be alwasy right but he is your bread & butter and
if you can't provide him or her with enough information etc. they can
and will find another company to do business with. Your loss and their
gain.

WARNING: The following is a very long post that is virtually devoid of
astronomy. If you're on s.a.a. for the astronomy discussions I suggest
finding something more relevant and apolitical such as Meade vs. Celestron,
whether or not we landed on the Moon, refractors vs. reflectors or the
validity of the claims of various telescope manufacturers.

On 16 Oct 2005 19:11:47 -0700, P. Edward Murray wrote:

Mike,

I am very well aware that about 2/3 of the population is under 30.
It's very possible though ( I could be wrong though) that I am just a
tad
older than you and do remember the hostage crisis.

I remember the hostage incident well. I was 30 years old at the time. I
was incensed and outraged.

Actually, I still am. But even at the time I understood that it was the
action of a small group of

people and a vile government whose demise would have pleased me (and still
would). I also heard

stories about the rest of the citizenry -- beyond the hype and video clips
from the street in front of

the embassy -- and how they didn't support it. I have since directly
confirmed this, although it is a

touchy subject to bring up because they are so embarassed and ashamed by
their government's action in

that incident. Besides, that was 26 years ago and a lot has happened since
then, including that the

vast majority of Iranians were born after it.

Many in Iran still remember the overthrow of their democratic, elected
government in 1953 and the

ensuing 26 years of repression and the thousands of deaths at his hands.
By all accounts I've seen

this was the direct cause of the revolution in 1979 and the rise of
fundamentalism. How different

would Iran be -- and the rest of the region -- if that democracy was
allowed to flourish under the

peoples' guidance? Would the region be filled with fundamentalist leanings
in some areas as it is

today? Would the US neo-cons feel compelled to intervene? Iran might have
been a strong, stable

democratic ally in the region as it had been before. At least, that's what
the Iranians think. They

long for democracy and they know their chance at it was crushed by the US
and Britain.

Even more Iranians also remember the US support of Saddam when he invaded
Iran in the 1980s. A

million people died as a result of the ensuing eight-year war, half of them
Iranian. It devasted the

country physically, economically and psychologically. The effects remain
in all areas (most highly

visible being the small to huge memorials to soldiers killed in the war
throughout the country).

Whether or not Saddam would have invaded without US support and munitions
(including conventional

weapons and gas technology) is an open question. It's certain that the war
would not have lasted

eight years without US support, though, either because Saddam would have
withdrawn or because Iran

would have won long before with what turned out to be their superior
forces.

No one in Iran ever apologized for it and yes apparently the Shah was
not such a great guy and yes we have from time to time supported
leaders who were poor choices.

No one has ever apologized for our overthrow of their government. What if
the USSR had overthrown our

government, installed a brutal king that killed thousands, suspended the
Constitution, sold off our

most valuable resources to Soviet companies at a fraction of their value
and not shared the wealth

with the rest of us, etc.? I suppose an apology might be worth considering
though I don't think it

would assuage my anger.

No one has ever apologized for the US participation in what amounted to
more than 1000 9/11's over

eight years in the 1980s and the hardships Iranians continue to face as a
result of that war.

Still, Iranians don't ask visitors about these things. They don't blame
people who visit in

friendship. They point out their displeasure with our government's
policies and actions but they

NEVER get specific (it would be considered rude; someone occassionally
tries to ask such a political

question but others refuse to translate it and push him out of the group,
much to my consternation).

They're quite apologetic for their own government as well, pointing out the
almost universal lack of

popular support for it.

Unfortunately, many of us have blinders on by comparison, looking at old
insults without considering

the context, causes and other events. Visiting Iranians are often treated
very badly in this country,

which stands in very sharp contrast to Americans in Iran where they have
far, far greater grievenaces

against us.

From what I understand you are in the Travel business and I assume that
you make some money from it. Maybe a lot maybe just a little.

I am not nor have I ever been in the travel business. I have no desire to
be. I'm an academic who's

spent my time in the university ivory tower and because I don't like the
business world. My trips to

Iran and the activities I've been involved in have been entirely at my own
expense or in a few cases

compensate but I haven't made a nickel on them. In fact, my wife and I
have spent thousands of

dollars in visiting and supporting our friends and colleagues there, as
well as thousands of hours of

uncompensated time. It's entirely a labor of love.

The only quasi-commercial tour I was involved in was organizing the tour
for the Venus transit last

year. In 2002 I was organizing a group of friends in astronomy to join us
for a tour of the country

to meet the amateur astronomers and help them, both with advise at the time
and future contacts. 9/11

made the situation in the Middle East too uncertain to plan a group trip
but my wife and I went to

Iran in the spring of 2002 ourselves (again at our own expense) and travled
around meeting astronomers

for several weeks.
The Venus transit tour was a sort of substitute for the aborted 2002 trip
but also took advantage of

the transit. There were actually no tour agencies involved except for the
one in Iran that made the

group arrangements for us (under direction). The planning, organizing and
marketing (including my

contacting knowledgeable people to join us as before) was done privately.
Our purpose (on both sides)

was the same as the 2002 trip -- to help the people there. The tour cost
the participant's $1950 for

18 days that included all accommodations, all food and all transportation
around the country. That's

a far cry from any commercial tour that took place, largely because we
spent volunteered our time to

make it happen without middlemen in agencies with a profit motive. There
was a small amount of money

left over and most of that went to the organizers at the Iranian astronomy
magazine. My wife and I

had our way paid and got a little more of the profits but I don't think is
was enough to cover our

actual expenses. And it didn't begin to compensate me for the hundreds of
hours I put into it. From

a commercial standpoint it would have been considered a absolute and total
disaster. It was highly

successful to me and my Iranian friends, though, as it accomplished our
goals. I also organized a

group this summer (a non-astronomy cause I felt strongly about) and had
most -- but not all -- of my

expenses paid for my trouble, primarily because I couldn't afford to go if
I had to pay my own way and

the work I did was worth more than they had to pay to get me there.

I have also lead an eclipse tour and have been asked to lead others but
this is as astronomy leader,

not part of an agency. These positions give the group leader free travel
but no other compensation.

I have been asked by agencies both in Iran and the US to organize tours for
astronomy to various

countries (including Iran) and study tours to Iran. If I do this it will
be my first foray into the

travel business because I couldn't possibly donate all the time necessary
for this. They'll handle

all the arrangements and marketing, i.e., the commercial stuff. It's my
connections and expertise in

certain areas that they want. I'll have to make something on it or I can't
spend the time that's

necessary but it won't be much since the agencies will be getting the lions
share. I wouldn't do it

at all except that I feel very strongly about the cause of bringing people
together to better

understand each other. Ignorance breeds the type of problems we have.
Education is the foundation

that makes solutions possible. I don't expect to change the world but I do
feel a responsibilty to do

what I can (though my wife wishes I felt a little more responsible about
some things around the

houseg). The US agency that wants to start these tours calls it "Peace
through Tourism".

You didn't ask a question but your statement implied I have a hidden agenda
that might bias my

statements (though I would have prefered a direct question). I hope this
shows that the profit bias

has not been present. Our bank account has not been fattened by our travel
but rather very much the

opposite. My wife and I just fell in love with the country and its people
and are dismayed at the

lack of accurate knowledge about it here.

My expertise is political science and apparently not much has changed
in 25 years.

I'm sorry to have to be so blunt but this is truly an ignorant statement
that couldn't be further from

the truth. The changes I've seen in just the past six years are profound.
I've spoken to many people

about the country in the bad old days just after the revolution (and read a
lot on it and the changes

since then) and it's hardly the same country in any way at all. I'm
referring to politically,

culturally, as regards personal and academic freedom -- everything.

My last trip there was with a group that included several political
scientists specializing in the

Middle East. If you'd like to have contact with them they can fill you in
on the current situation

there and the changes that have taken place. Some are distinguished
scholars and authors you might

have heard of in the political science arena. I can also recommend reading
by, e.g., journalists who

have been covering the country since the day Khomeini returned. You prefer
the academic view from

experts in your own field, however.

They are still led by a bunch of clerics who are marching to their own
drummer. They still support and promote terrorism. And they have sent
their folks to fight in Iraq too.

My sole objection to your first statement was that you villify the people
for the action of their

leaders. I don't disagree with your statement above but support for these
policies is virutally nil

and it's not within the peoples' power to change it. Would you blame
Russians for Stalin's actions,

or Iraqis for Saddam's?

As Vahe wrote they do have the responsibility to own up to "electing"
( if you can really call any election they have valid) a hardliner.
They have to live up to the fact that apparently they can't or will not
choose a new government that is more interested in caring for their own
people than promoting and exporting terrorism.

You point out that the election was not what we would call an election but
still expect the citizens

to use this mechanism to affect change. In fact, the election was nothing
of the sort if you use our

definition of it. Every viable reform candidate was disqualified by the
Council of Guardians in order

to ensure a result that would satisfy the current leaders. There was more
government manipulation

that would be illegal here, all to ensure the result. The people did not
"choose" the government.

Saddam was re-elected in Iraq by a vote of something like 99% of the
voters. Does this result mean

that the citizens of Iraq wanted him in power and favored his policies?

What about the previous Iranian presidential election in which the
reformist president Khatami was

re-elected by 85% of the voters? Khatami certainly wouldn't have been
allowed to run the first time

if those in power had realized he might win but they couldn't disqualify
the sitting president in the

next election (although they did just that with dozens of sitting members
of the Majlis, their

parliament, in the most recent election). This is certainly a better
representation of the choice of

the people, isn't it? What would the result of the current election have
been if Khatami or someone

close to him had been allowed to run? Certainly less than the last
election because of the

disappointment in his inability to enact his reform policies but wouldn't
someone like-minded have

beaten Ahmedinejad?

In fact, the president has very little power. Anything that is really
important is decided by the

true, unelected leaders of the country. Khatami could only enact what they
allowed him to and his

supporters -- most of the country -- were frustrated by his lack of
success. His impact in foreign

policy was virtually nil. His primary push there was to engage other
countries in dialogue,

understanding and compromise for the good of all -- a "Dialogue of
Civilizations" that was adopted as

a theme for a year by the UN. It was a dead end as far as diplomacy went,
though, with the true

powers blocking any significant changes in policy. Ahmedinejad will be
seen much more in the foreign

policy arena but only because he is willing to speak the party line. That
makes him a mouthpiece,

though, rather than a leader.

Interestingly, there have been no changes in policy since Ahmedinejad's
taken office and it appears

there will be no wholesale changes. There are terrible blunders of
rhetoric like his UN speech but so

far that's it.

And it's not just Americans that are upset with Iran it's the rest of
the world too.

I'm not aware of any nation that's upset with the Iranian people for the
policies of their country.

Perhaps people in less-democratic countries understand the disconnect
between the peoples' wishes and

the country's polcies, just as the frustrated Iranians do. Also, the
discontent with Iran's policies

is higher overblown in the US media. Try some foreign media to get an idea
of what they really think

and why US pressure has been ineffective thus far.

Just as much as when some Americans who are more fundamentalist than
American, chose George Bush to lead us.

Agreed.

At least in the United States we can choose our Congress every 2 years
and at least 1/3 of the Senate. Every 4 years we can choose a new
president.

They can't do that it Iran.

That's largely my point above. The people desperately want this chance and
they look to the US as the

shining model of how things should be. In fact, despite all they know
about us and our system they're

hopelessly naive in their understanding of how great things are. They
don't expect that there are any

problems at all but such an ideal system is just not possible. Nor is it
desirable -- problems are

what drives improvements.

Do not get me wrong, of course there are nice folks in Iran.

They just haven't figured out yet that they need to change their
government.

This is what I really wanted to counter, Edward. They have known it all
along. As a political

scientist you know that the revolution was against the Shah and not the
Islamic Revolution that's

often referred to. While they were bickering about what form of government
to have (not an easy

problem to solve after 2500 years of dictatorship) it was hijacked by the
mullahs who then extended

their powers to something no one had ever expected. It took a very short
time before the majority of

people realized what had happened. They have tried to change it many time
(and blood has been spilled

in the effort). You can't go anywhere without hearing the discontent. You
can't read any account of

travelers without hearing the same thing. How you got the idea that the
citizenry supports this

government when the reality is exactly the opposite is a mystery to me. I
could suggest reading but

better yet would be if you went there yourself! I could arrange the trip
of a lifetime and an

iron-clad, money-back guarantee that you'd have a fabulous and enlightening
time.


That is their own job though, not ours and it's pretty apparent that
when we decide it's our job that's when we get into trouble

Well, I certainly agree with you there. The CIA coup in Iran in 1953 was
their first and the eventual

outcome (which the architects of the operation never saw) was a disaster
for both countries.

Supporting the mujahedeen in Afghanistan and then leaving a power vacuum
for them to fill and

eventually turn against and attack the US is another prime example. You
just can't change one small

thing in a large, internconnected system and predict the results any more
than you can predict one

photon's path and interactions from the center to the surface of a star
(ASTRONOMY!g) . The world

is a complex and complicated place, and no place on it more so than Iran.

Mike Simmons
In the mountains of "sunny" Southern California where it's been raining all
day and the power has

failed twice during the composition of this long-winded post

On 17 Oct 2005 11:59:02 -0700, wrote:

I might remind everyone that there are reputable tour groups such as
David Levy's & of course Sky & Telescope & Astronomy Mags.

Being in the Travel business for just a few years and another member of
my family being in it since the 1960's you quickly learn that you
shouldn't pick fights with anyone because you never know who might be
looking to go on a tour and they can decide not to go with your group.

The customer may not be alwasy right but he is your bread & butter and
if you can't provide him or her with enough information etc. they can
and will find another company to do business with. Your loss and their
gain.

I'm sure that's good advice. But I'm not in the travel business. I've
been asked to be the astronomy leader for a couple eclipse trips by
"reputable tour groups". Some in the business have asked me to expand my
participation in specialized areas and I may do that but up to now I've
never had any other business connection. The agency that approached me in
the US is a very large tour operator that puts together some of the eclipse
packages the retailers you mention sell, and is quite "reputable".

I'm not aware that I've picked any fights (certainly not with Anthony in
the branch of the thread where you posted this). There were some posts
that I disagreed with but I wouldn't have characterized the ensuing
discussion as fights. I carefully review my posts before posting them to
avoid being offensive but if there's something I've done I'll certainly
reconsider and apologize if my words were inappropriate.

I have to say, however, that the activities that I've been involved in over
the years regarding international understanding and friendship are far more
dear to me than any potential to get into business. If I had to make a
choice I would not sacrifice these activities or my principles for the
potential to make money off my volunteer work. If that turns off some
people who might otherwise travel with me in some future tour then I'm
willing to accept that.

Obviously, it's good that I've stayed in academia and out of business. I
have a feeling I'd be a lousy businessman. ;-)

Mike Simmons