market size as a function of launcher size

If there is going to be a HLLV (defined as a launcher capable of placing
40Mt+i nto LEO) in the future which one of the following will
be the first customer? BRBR


The only thing I can think of that is even slightly likely to happen soon to
make the HLLV a going proposition is the space-based laser. IF it's built,
indididual lasers will weigh 40 tons or more by some estimates. You can either
build a heavy-lift or do on-orbit assembly. If I were in charge, I would build
the heavy lifter as the simpler and probably cheaper long-term solution.


Matt Bille
)
OPINIONS IN ALL POSTS ARE SOLELY THOSE OF THE AUTHOR

MattWriter wrote in message
...
If there is going to be a HLLV (defined as a launcher capable of
placing
40Mt+i nto LEO) in the future which one of the following will
be the first customer? BRBR


The only thing I can think of that is even slightly likely to happen soon
to
make the HLLV a going proposition is the space-based laser. IF it's built,
indididual lasers will weigh 40 tons or more by some estimates. You can
either
build a heavy-lift or do on-orbit assembly. If I were in charge, I would
build
the heavy lifter as the simpler and probably cheaper long-term solution.


I tend to agree. The experimental SBL which is being worked weights 20
tonnes.
The deployable satellite is bound to be bigger.

The SBL project is ticking along at a slow pace at the moment with only
10-20% of
the funding originally requested. (have a look at www.highfrontier.org for
more details) I'll be interested to see what happens if the Chinese move
substantially into space. If the US felt that Chinese space power was a
threat to American space systems there would be a case for the early
deployment of SBL to maintain US control of Space.

ta

Ralph

In article ,
ralph buttigieg wrote:
If there is going to be a HLLV (defined as a launcher capable of placing
40Mt+i nto LEO) in the future which one of the following will
be the first customer?
1) NASA With a A Moon/ Mars mission
2) DoD to place large military satellites- perhaps a Space based laser
3) Commercial organisation - perhaps launching big comsats.
4) Other - please explain.

You forgot

5) None of the above -- no HLLV any time soon.

Which is by far the likeliest of the bunch.

Especially after the station debacle, no way no how is Congress going to
hand NASA a blank check for a Moon/Mars project. Apollo *will* *not*
happen again. Suggestions to the contrary are ludicrous fantasies.

(It is not beyond hope that manned exploration might happen again... but
it will not be done the Apollo way, developing a giant launcher and a new
spacecraft in a big hurry. Vastly lower costs are absolutely necessary,
so it will have to use existing launch systems -- which must be much
cheaper than today's -- and take a far more cost-constrained approach to
the spacecraft and the mission. JSC is probably incapable of doing this;
NASA as a whole may be incapable of doing it.)

DoD has occasionally shown interest in launching large things, but the
already-debatable requirements for it have largely evaporated with the end
of the Cold War. Even the spysats are shrinking, not growing.

Giant comsats are not as popular today as they were five years ago. And
even the extreme high end of the market has a long way to go before it
will outgrow the EELV Heavy configurations. There will be no market there
any time soon. Other commercial markets are highly speculative, and are
more likely to want lots of small launches than a handful of huge ones.
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