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Although in the 1950s/60s it seems that space colonization was only a
few decades away (see: sci-fi at the time), even if we had continued to fund space development through private commercialization, I doubt we'd be much farther than we are at today. Aside from the dismantling of the rocket program and the setbacks of the shuttle program and cost of the space station , I say we still would not be any closer to having habitable colonies in either earth orbit, on the Moon or Mars. Why? Simple because there would be no economic basis for doing so by the private sector. Given the costs of putting material into space (on the order of thousands of dollars a pound) and assembling it, no development could be structured such that it would generate a feasable return. Even if one could replicate a Dennis Tito scenario, that would just mean the platform would be vanity, not a real, long-term livable habitat. The reason why the New World was settled in the 16th/17th century, aside from explorations for gold, was for governments to establish outposts for their empires and for desperate and poor settlers to enjoy a new life away from the European millieu. By international law, governments cannot make soverign land claims. Space presents both high costs and a hostile environment that would be impossible for typical immigrants to afford and have the skill to work in. The scenario that science fiction often lays out is one from where a group of astronauts, scientists and engineers are sent into space to establish a base colony on the Moon/Mars. After a few years of development the colony expands to accomodate other professions including miners, traders, et al. Life beings to simulate Earth communities as the early settlers being to have families on the new planet/colony. And so the story ends happily. However, I do not see where such an enterprise could get started in terms of massive financial support which would run into the hundreds of billions for at least the first decade if the settlement was going to be an actual colony and not just an outpost. Moreover, even if it was backed by a Bill Gates or a trans-government entity I do not see how the colony makes a return for the investment. It is just a sinkhole. Using the base as an exotic research center or establishing mining operations are nice to have but they won't recoup hardly any of the costs and any eventual breakthroughs would take many years if at all. Unless colony can discover the fountain of youth drug or Earth resources are so depleted that it make transplanetary shipping cost effective, I do not see why any rational business or government would make such a speculative investment. For the most part, the business model that drove New World colonies was that sailing companies would be paid by would be (voluntary) settlers, either upfront or as a portion of their eventual labor, to make the journey across the Atlantic ocean. The boats were often barely seaworthy and passenger safety concerns were not a high priority, esp. for those who paid in advance. Also the crew were often composed of former naval men, convicts and other low paid laborers. This model is replicated today is the cases of Chinese immigrant smuggling. However, each of these circumstances which made settling so profitable for the sailing companies would not exist in colonizing space. Either they would be impractical or intolerable. The space vehicle would have to be custom built to exacting specifications of tolerance and performance. The crew would be drawn from the NASA's best. If the settlers were to be scientists and engineers, they obviously could not afford to pay the cost there, nor bring their families. And they would not have any means of earning any money once they landed. So, I do not see how even the most promising developments that could have occured since the first Moon landed would have overcome these impediments. Ciao. |
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