Current US military thinking on launch needs

(Henry Spencer) writes:

In article . com,
Ed Kyle wrote:
Air Force will launch its last Delta II in FY2007.
Delta II will then transition to NASA-only.

Of course, the USAF hasn't actually launched any Delta IIs for quite a
while now, and neither has NASA. Both buy Delta II launches from Boeing.

A cynic would say that Delta II's departure from USAF service has been
predicted before... It's not likely to actually happen unless they get
some competing launchers in that size range.


And it's an amazingly useful launcher servicing an amazingly useful size
range. None of the glory of Heavy Lift and the associated payloads, but
a lot of useful work gets done anyhow. Shutting down Delta II because
Falcon V and, er, something else, are proven and cheaper, would be a
Good Thing (for everyone but Boeing). Shutting down Delta II because we
have Delta IV, would be a Bad Thing (for everyone but Boeing).


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Ed Kyle wrote:

Here's an abbreviated summary for those who
don't want to wait the hourlong download.

Air Force wants two EELV's through 2020, at least.


Besides the EELV info, there are a couple of slides on a study of a 10K
to LEO launcher with a reusable flyback booster and expendable upper
stage.

On 23 Feb 2005 00:01:12 -0800, in a place far, far away, "Mike Chan"
made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way
as to indicate that:

Besides the EELV info, there are a couple of slides on a study of a 10K
to LEO launcher with a reusable flyback booster and expendable upper
stage.

That's probably ARES.

"Ed Kyle" wrote in message
ups.com...
Allen Thomson wrote:
An interesting PDF slideshow:
http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/apio/p...erspective.pdf
DoD Space Transportation Perspective


Here's an abbreviated summary for those who
don't want to wait the hourlong download.

Air Force wants two EELV's through 2020, at least.

Air Force will launch its last Delta II in FY2007.
Delta II will then transition to NASA-only.

Air Force plans to add a smaller "Operationally
Responsive" launcher by 2010. The Falcon
Demonstration program is the starting point for
this effort.

This combined with SpaceX shows Lockheed had the right idea to get out of
this market.
Boeing if smart will soon follow and retire the Delta II.


Air Force is moving away from a commercial launch
acquisition model for EELV, etc. It will now
use fixed-plus type acquisition.

EELV launch plans show that Boeing Decatur will
be hurting for years. Atlas V has already been
assigned an average of at least 4 launches per
year 2007-2011. Delta IV only has an average
of one launch per year during the same period.
*No more launches remain to be assigned for 2007.*
Only three more EELV missions remain to be assigned
for 2008. Six or more per year are still up for
grabs starting in 2009.

The sanctions on Boeing really come across as devastating when shown
in this form. Boeing could be forced out of the launch business if the
sanctions are not lifted before the next buy.

The Air Force, if I counted right, is planning 71 EELV launches before
2014.
This should give a very good safety record even without NASA or commercial
launches.
In 2012-2013 they are planning 20 launches.
Between 2014 and 2019 the EELV launch market could be getting a little
tight.
8-12 Air Force, a few commercial and 10-14 NASA (most for NASA heavies)
could add
up to well over 40 cores.
If SpaceX is competitive in this market as now planned that will not be the
case.


The presentation mentions that the EELVs can
meet all of NASA's projected needs.

Now if they can just convince NASA!

One interesting side note almost all of the launches purchased so far are
smaller rockets.
This is partially caused by still using the Titan but
either the Air Force is going for smaller satellites or
somewhere in Buy 3 and 4 are some large satellites and rockets.

George William Herbert wrote:

Will McLean wrote:

The CBC structure presumably takes more labor than a Delta II first stage,

Probably not. It's a lot bigger, but the whole thing is automatically
machined isogrids in a curved plate which is then friction stir welded
up to make the main tank, and it pretty much goes "zip".

I have no inside information on this, but my gut feel is that the marginal
cost of a Delta IV Medium is less than a Delta II. Boeing built a state-
of-the-art aerospace facility in Alabama to make the Delta IV, and it's
capable of kicking out fifty Common Booster Cores per year.

There's the rub -- they're currently only making two. The high price
reflects the 25x higher overhead cost per unit and the amortization of
Boeing's $2 billion investment in the program, not marginal cost.

Mike

-----
Michael Kent Apple II Forever!!
St. Peters, MO