Rand Simberg Credibility - Space Tourism

"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 6 Oct 2004 13:41:01 -0700, in a place far, far away, "Mike
Walsh" made the phosphor on my monitor glow in
such a way as to indicate that:

OK, so now Mike Walsh cracked.

Is Derek Lyons next?

(hahahahahaha)

Tom

Well, I indeed was wrong.

I somewhat object to being regarded as "cracked". :}

I think it was a verb, not an adjective.

Yes, I noticed. That's why I added
the smiley.

Mike Walsh

"Mike Walsh" wrote in message ...

I presumed that a viable space tourism program would require going higher
than the 100 km. of the X-Prize and therefore require that the larger craft
I thought would be needed to be viable economically would also be a
fairly sophisticated high supersonic-low hypersonic vehicle.

Apparently Richard Branson thinks he can sell the shorter term, lower
altitude flights successfully for about $200 k. Combining this with
Burt Rutan's and Scaled Composites talents for producing a low
cost vehicle makes the $100 million figure look credible. From
what I read in Aviation Week that figure is for buying the space
craft and additional money would be required to run the
"spaceline".

Actually, Branson is aiming for somewhat higher than that -- about
160km by my exceedingly crude calculations. That's from this article
(http://www.spaceflightnow.com/ss1/041004branson.html):

"Branson said Rutan has promised to build five spacecraft, each
capable of carrying five passengers, over the next three years. The
new spacecraft will carry tourists well beyond the 69-mile altitude of
SpaceShipOne's record breaking flight, providing passengers with up to
seven minutes or so of weightlessness."

If what I read is correct then Branson will be paying back
Paul Allens group what amounts to basically the X-Prize
development costs over the years so Paul Allen could
come out breaking even.

Between the X-Prize money and the $25 million licensing deal (let's
call it the "Branson Prize"), one could say that Paul Allen is already
effectively well in the black. It's also worth noting that the deal
with Branson is not exclusive, and Rutan has said that they're in
negotiations with "many other potential licensees". This could turn
out to be a very profitable venture for Allen indeed. Which would be
a most powerful lesson for future investors who are looking at space.

Cheers,

Nathan.

"Mike Walsh" wrote in message ...

Yes, I noticed. That's why I added
the smiley.

Just for the record, I'd like to second Rand's commendations on your
always being a gentleman.

"Nathan Koren" wrote in message
om...
"Mike Walsh" wrote in message
...

Yes, I noticed. That's why I added
the smiley.

Just for the record, I'd like to second Rand's commendations on your
always being a gentleman.

Well, if you check through all of my posts you will find
times that I lost it a bit in a series of back and
forth posts.

However, my worst perceived offenses have been accidental
where I posted something that was ambiguous and didn't
get across what I meant.

I believe that at least twice I posted something that
Henry Vanderbilt thought was calling him a liar about
something and that was completely accidental. My post
was badly worded. I particularly hate doing that when
the person is someone that I have great respect for.

Mike Walsh