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Brian Thorn wrote
Isn't that exactly what happened when the Saturn V was retired in favor of the STS? That was the plan. The reality was 6 years. And there was more on the line then, too. An unmanned space station (Skylab) was depending on STS for a reboost. Didn't get it. Poof. At least during this gap the US can buy launch seats to ISS from the RKA, although I shouldn't be at all surprised if RKA "discovers" they need to raise the price of the tickets post-STS. I wouldn't rule out a 6 year gap this time, either. I wouldn't rule out an infinite gap. Ares looks to me a lot like the effort to rebuild the WTC in NYC. 7 years later it's still a hole in the ground. After STS is parted out to museums, Branson/Rutan gen3 hardware may get back to ISS before NASA's deja vue Apollo II Lite Jr. hardware does. -- Regards, Bob Niland http://www.access-one.com/rjn email4rjn AT yahoo DOT com NOT speaking for any employer, client or Internet Service Provider. |
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On Sun, 20 Jul 2008 07:34:56 -0700 (PDT), rjn
wrote: And there was more on the line then, too. An unmanned space station (Skylab) was depending on STS for a reboost. Didn't get it. Poof. No it wasn't, that was an afterthought. There were no plans to occupy SkyLab beyond SkyLab 4. And it wasn't all Shuttle's fault. When launched in 1973, SkyLab was expected to have a 9-to-10 year orbital lifetime, instead it came down in 1979. Shuttle was expected to fly in November 1978 but slipped to April 1981. The Shuttle/SkyLab TRS flight was originally to be something like the 5th or 6th Shuttle flight. As the Shuttle was delayed and SkyLab's entry period advanced, that moved all the way up to STS-2 before the two dates passed one another going in opposite directions. At least during this gap the US can buy launch seats to ISS from the RKA, although I shouldn't be at all surprised if RKA "discovers" they need to raise the price of the tickets post-STS. Count on it. Brian |
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