Robert Bigelow to announce $50 million orbital space prize; inflatable modules

[I'm kind of surprised this hasn't been posted about already, so
something I wrote yesterday to here.]

This is a very exciting week for private spaceflight! In addition to
the Virgin Galactic announcement, hotel entrepreneur Robert Bigelow (of
Bigelow Aerospace) has mentioned plans to announce a $50 million
orbital space prize, to a team which produces a commercial space
transport capable of sending 5-7 passengers to a Bigelow inflatable
space module by 2010. This will be dubbed "America's Space Prize."
There's an article with photographs available he

http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0409/27bigelow/

press release: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040927/nym082_1.html

The inflatables themselves are quite interesting, with a docking
mechanism designed to attach with either a Russian Soyuz, a Chinese
Shenzhou, and/or whatever vehicle comes out of the aforementioned
America's Space Prize. A one-third size prototype of the inflatable
module will be launched in 2005 on the maiden flight of SpaceX's Falcon
V rocket, which is itself a very interesting vehicle (~3000kg into LEO
for $12 million, and the first orbital vehicle designed to be man-rated
since the space shuttle). The first full-size inflatable habitat will
be up by 2008, and it's planned to have a crew by 2010.

Robert Bigelow was also the founder of Budget Suites of America, and is
applying a lot of the cost-cutting tricks he learned from his previous
contracting experience to the aerospace industry. He licensed the
Transhab technology from NASA (which had previously had its funding
cut), and is subcontracting for things like life support from other
companies who already have systems running.

What's exciting about this is that the inflatable modules appear to be
designed, built, and have undergone some preliminary tests. The
outsides of the modules have withstood projectile impact tests fairly
well. Pretty much all that needs to happen now is for them to undergo
further tests and be launched. Bigelow's use of multiple contractors
for the same part will allow him to ramp up production if there's a
demand for it, and sell the inflatable modules for ~$100 million each
to whoever wants them.

Regarding the prize itself, I'd actually be quite interested to see if
somebody ends up just designing a docking/descent capsule and sticking
it on a Falcon V.

"Neil Halelamien" wrote in message
oups.com...
[I'm kind of surprised this hasn't been posted about already, so
something I wrote yesterday to here.]

This is a very exciting week for private spaceflight! In addition to
the Virgin Galactic announcement, hotel entrepreneur Robert Bigelow (of
Bigelow Aerospace) has mentioned plans to announce a $50 million
orbital space prize, to a team which produces a commercial space
transport capable of sending 5-7 passengers to a Bigelow inflatable
space module by 2010. This will be dubbed "America's Space Prize."
There's an article with photographs available he

http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0409/27bigelow/


LOL

$50 million for a spaceship carrying 5-7 passengers into orbit and bring
them back safely? What a joke. There's no way someone will be able to claim
that prize for a long time. Orbital flight requires at least 20 times the
energy compared to a suborbital flight, so the prize should be 20 times that
of the X-Prize (i.e. $200 millon). For that kind of money, someone *might*
be willing to invest in such a venture, but that's a big 'if' IMHO, because
you're losing serious amounts of money if it doesn't work. And if it doesn't
work someone's likely to get killed.

For this kind of craft to be anywhere near safe it would have to be a
capsule, and a big one at that. The Russians are having a hard time
realizing it (both technically and financially) and the U.S. isn't even
thinking about one at the moment (but I suspect that will change in the near
future). I believe this is far beyond private commercial enterprise's
capabillities at this time but I hope I'm proven wrong.

"BitBanger" wrote in message
...

$50 million for a spaceship carrying 5-7 passengers into orbit and bring
them back safely? What a joke. There's no way someone will be able to
claim
that prize for a long time.

While what you say is true, what's to stop other people, companies,
governments, and etc. from donating more money to the prize? I'd personally
like to see the US Government donate a few hundred million dollars each year
to the pot. The longer the prize is unclaimed, the bigger the pot grows.

For this kind of craft to be anywhere near safe it would have to be a
capsule, and a big one at that.

Perhaps. You could also design a TSTO where the first and second stages are
recoverd and reused and incorporate the flight deck into the second stage.
This ought to be easier than recovering the space shuttle, because the
second stage would be mostly large, empty tankage.

Jeff
--
Remove icky phrase from email address to get a valid address.

"Jeff Findley" wrote in message
...

"BitBanger" wrote in message
...

$50 million for a spaceship carrying 5-7 passengers into orbit and bring
them back safely? What a joke. There's no way someone will be able to
claim
that prize for a long time.

While what you say is true, what's to stop other people, companies,
governments, and etc. from donating more money to the prize? I'd
personally
like to see the US Government donate a few hundred million dollars each
year
to the pot. The longer the prize is unclaimed, the bigger the pot grows.

That doesn't change the fundemental problem that orbital flight is too
expensive at the moment. Subsidizing it with government money (even if it's
prize money) changes market mechanisms and will not lead to cheaper access
to space. In other words: if private enterprise can't finance it by itself,
it's probably not worth the effort. OTOH private enterpise has financed
billion+ dollar projects before. If private enterprise isn't interested it's
because there's not a clear perception of what the market 'up there' will
be. Space tourism? It's kind of iffy, because you'd have to be able to spend
$100.000+ for a stay in an orbital hotel. How many people are there in the
world who can afford that? How many of these would actually go? How many of
them would do it more than once? It should be possible to calculate the
financial viabillity of such an endeavor. If you compare, for example,
airplane tickets in the early 1920's and 1930's, these were hugely expensive
(about $30.000 in current dollars). Yet there were still quite a few wealthy
laggards willing to pay for it. So I have some hope that orbital tourism
will be viable, even though it will initially be only in reach for the very
affluent.

On Fri, 1 Oct 2004 18:47:12 +0200, in a place far, far away,
"BitBanger" made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a
way as to indicate that:

That doesn't change the fundemental problem that orbital flight is too
expensive at the moment. Subsidizing it with government money (even if it's
prize money) changes market mechanisms and will not lead to cheaper access
to space. In other words: if private enterprise can't finance it by itself,
it's probably not worth the effort. OTOH private enterpise has financed
billion+ dollar projects before. If private enterprise isn't interested it's
because there's not a clear perception of what the market 'up there' will
be. Space tourism? It's kind of iffy, because you'd have to be able to spend
$100.000+ for a stay in an orbital hotel. How many people are there in the
world who can afford that? How many of these would actually go? How many of
them would do it more than once?

Do you believe that you're the first person who's ever made these
objections, or asked such questions, in this newsgroup? That having
been finally blessed with your wisdom after all these years of
discussing this, we're going to hit ourselves on the forehead and say,
"Gosh! BitBanger is right! We need to do some market research!"

It should be possible to calculate the
financial viabillity of such an endeavor.

It not only should be, but is possible, and many people have done it.

If you compare, for example,
airplane tickets in the early 1920's and 1930's, these were hugely expensive
(about $30.000 in current dollars). Yet there were still quite a few wealthy
laggards willing to pay for it. So I have some hope that orbital tourism
will be viable, even though it will initially be only in reach for the very
affluent.

And that's a problem why?

"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 1 Oct 2004 18:47:12 +0200, in a place far, far away,
"BitBanger" made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a
way as to indicate that:

That doesn't change the fundemental problem that orbital flight is too
expensive at the moment. Subsidizing it with government money (even if
it's
prize money) changes market mechanisms and will not lead to cheaper
access
to space. In other words: if private enterprise can't finance it by
itself,
it's probably not worth the effort. OTOH private enterpise has financed
billion+ dollar projects before. If private enterprise isn't interested
it's
because there's not a clear perception of what the market 'up there' will
be. Space tourism? It's kind of iffy, because you'd have to be able to
spend
$100.000+ for a stay in an orbital hotel. How many people are there in
the
world who can afford that? How many of these would actually go? How many
of
them would do it more than once?

Do you believe that you're the first person who's ever made these
objections, or asked such questions, in this newsgroup? That having
been finally blessed with your wisdom after all these years of
discussing this, we're going to hit ourselves on the forehead and say,
"Gosh! BitBanger is right! We need to do some market research!"

Please don't pummel BitBanger for always being right.

"Jeff Findley" wrote in message
...

"BitBanger" wrote in message
...

$50 million for a spaceship carrying 5-7 passengers into orbit and
bring them back safely? What a joke. There's no way someone
will be able to claim that prize for a long time.

While what you say is true, what's to stop other people, companies,
governments, and etc. from donating more money to the prize? I'd
personally like to see the US Government donate a few hundred
million dollars each year to the pot. The longer the prize is
unclaimed, the bigger the pot grows.

Roton, Millenium Express, etc., were looking at around $300 million five
years back. I think we have come along way since then. I expect it is
doable for $200 million, perhaps doable for $100 million, with an
outside possibility that a really well conceived low cost development
approach unpressured by time could do it for $50 million. Space-X is
not the cheapest prospect out there, but how much do you think it would
cost them? Or someone else using their rockets?

We are not starting from scratch any more, we have the X-Prize almost
behind us with a lot of institutional knowledge, infrastructure,
publicity and inertia thereby gained. A lot of the beginner's mistakes
are now behind us and people have a far clearer idea of what is
required. X-Prize level technology can probably be incrementally
developed to orbital performance, with scaling and staging, though
reentry will require something more.

I think the prize is big enough, and indeed should not get any bigger,
otherwise it will not be low cost. Extra money would be better spent on
other prizes. This prize should be enough to induce a number of
competitors to have a go at developing vehicles that are commercially
viable. Many were already close to having a go on their own. I am not
sure when the prize will be claimed, though I expect by 2010. To be
honest, I would not be surprised if it was claimed within three years of
assured funding. The ability and intent is there.

Pete.

"Pete Lynn" :

"Jeff Findley" wrote in message
...

"BitBanger" wrote in message
...

$50 million for a spaceship carrying 5-7 passengers into orbit and
bring them back safely? What a joke. There's no way someone
will be able to claim that prize for a long time.

While what you say is true, what's to stop other people, companies,
governments, and etc. from donating more money to the prize? I'd
personally like to see the US Government donate a few hundred
million dollars each year to the pot. The longer the prize is
unclaimed, the bigger the pot grows.

Roton, Millenium Express, etc., were looking at around $300 million five
years back. I think we have come along way since then. I expect it is
doable for $200 million, perhaps doable for $100 million, with an
outside possibility that a really well conceived low cost development
approach unpressured by time could do it for $50 million. Space-X is
not the cheapest prospect out there, but how much do you think it would
cost them? Or someone else using their rockets?

As has been point out already, the craft designed to win the prize does not
have to be the final commerial design. And looking at Armadillo's
development cycles and cost I think making a winner for less than $50 million
maybe possible.

We are not starting from scratch any more, we have the X-Prize almost
behind us with a lot of institutional knowledge, infrastructure,
publicity and inertia thereby gained. A lot of the beginner's mistakes
are now behind us and people have a far clearer idea of what is
required. X-Prize level technology can probably be incrementally
developed to orbital performance, with scaling and staging, though
reentry will require something more.

And year standard off the shelf parts get cheaper and cheaper - any notice
how there is a lt more things available in stainless steel nowadays compare
to ten years ago? Also custom one-off design of parts can be farmed out more
easyierly than years ago. At one time if you were not ordering a thousand
unit of something, forget about it. Now you can order 1,2,3,... items
without paying the cost of a thousand unit run.

I think the prize is big enough, and indeed should not get any bigger,
otherwise it will not be low cost. Extra money would be better spent on
other prizes. This prize should be enough to induce a number of
competitors to have a go at developing vehicles that are commercially
viable. Many were already close to having a go on their own. I am not
sure when the prize will be claimed, though I expect by 2010. To be
honest, I would not be surprised if it was claimed within three years of
assured funding. The ability and intent is there.

If the prize was bigger tha it is unlikely that a winner would be CATS in
design.

Earl Colby Pottinger
--
I make public email sent to me! Hydrogen Peroxide Rockets, OpenBeos,
SerialTransfer 3.0, RAMDISK, BoatBuilding, DIY TabletPC. What happened to
the time? http://webhome.idirect.com/~earlcp

"Earl Colby Pottinger" wrote in message
...
As has been point out already, the craft designed to win the prize
does not have to be the final commerial design. And looking at
Armadillo's development cycles and cost I think making a winner
for less than $50 million maybe possible.

Yes, I was not quite brave enough to come out and say it directly.
Sufficient technology, people and materials should all be obtainable for
less than $50 million. It all comes down to how you go about doing it.

Pete.

Earl Colby Pottinger :
[SNIP BAD REPLY]

What bad typing on my part, I hope I did not give any one headaches reading
that. It should read.

"Pete Lynn" :

"Jeff Findley" wrote in message
...

"BitBanger" wrote in message
...

$50 million for a spaceship carrying 5-7 passengers into orbit and
bring them back safely? What a joke. There's no way someone
will be able to claim that prize for a long time.

While what you say is true, what's to stop other people, companies,
governments, and etc. from donating more money to the prize? I'd
personally like to see the US Government donate a few hundred
million dollars each year to the pot. The longer the prize is
unclaimed, the bigger the pot grows.

Roton, Millenium Express, etc., were looking at around $300 million five
years back. I think we have come along way since then. I expect it is
doable for $200 million, perhaps doable for $100 million, with an
outside possibility that a really well conceived low cost development
approach unpressured by time could do it for $50 million. Space-X is
not the cheapest prospect out there, but how much do you think it would
cost them? Or someone else using their rockets?

As has been pointed out already, the craft designed to win the prize does not
have to be the final commerial design. And after looking at Armadillo's
development cycles and costs I think making a winner for less than $50
million may be possible.

We are not starting from scratch any more, we have the X-Prize almost
behind us with a lot of institutional knowledge, infrastructure,
publicity and inertia thereby gained. A lot of the beginner's mistakes
are now behind us and people have a far clearer idea of what is
required. X-Prize level technology can probably be incrementally
developed to orbital performance, with scaling and staging, though
reentry will require something more.

And ever year standard off the shelf parts get cheaper and cheaper - has
anyone noticed how there is a lot more things available in stainless steel
nowadays compared to just ten years ago? Also custom one-off design of parts
can now be farmed out more easyierly than a couple of years ago. At one time
if you were not ordering a thousand units of something, forget about it. Now
you can order 1,2,3,... items (at a high cost each) without paying the cost
of a thousand unit run.

I think the prize is big enough, and indeed should not get any bigger,
otherwise it will not be low cost. Extra money would be better spent on
other prizes. This prize should be enough to induce a number of
competitors to have a go at developing vehicles that are commercially
viable. Many were already close to having a go on their own. I am not
sure when the prize will be claimed, though I expect by 2010. To be
honest, I would not be surprised if it was claimed within three years of
assured funding. The ability and intent is there.

If the prize was any bigger than it is now it is unlikely that a winner would
be CATS in design or construction.

Earl Colby Pottinger

--
I make public email sent to me! Hydrogen Peroxide Rockets, OpenBeos,
SerialTransfer 3.0, RAMDISK, BoatBuilding, DIY TabletPC. What happened to
the time? http://webhome.idirect.com/~earlcp