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greywolf42 wrote in message
. .. Joseph Lazio wrote in message ... {snip} This is Data Analysis 101. Let your detector be anything you want it to be. Let it measure temperature on the sky, volts out of a voltmeter, whatever. If you take a long data stream from it, you can easily measure well below the "resolution" of the detector. LOL! Another proof-by-assertion. Citation, please. No response.... And (on the 15th): ========= it is well known that one can make specific kinds of measurements below the resolution limit of an instrument, Joseph, *why* do you keep repeating this silly statement? Many people make such claims, but it is not valid science or statistics. You can easily show me wrong, by directing me to a statistics treatise on how to perform measurements below the resolution of the instrument used. ========= No response, again..... A week ago, (in the sci.astro thread Cosmic Acceleration Rediscovered), Joseph Lazio repeated the claim that one can get data to better precision than the measuring instrument is physically capable of supporting. Tom Roberts (and Bill Rowe), on the other hand, have many times called such processes "overaveraging" (at least when it is applied to experiments that would otherwise disprove SR). i.e.: http://www.google.com/groups?selm=vr....supernews.com "And results reported implying an order of magnitude improvement in resolution over the best the instrument can achieve are very dubious." Now it's time to see these two newsgroup stars have at it, over the experimental and scientific principle of whether data can be "averaged" below the physical resolution (or sensitivity) of the apparatus! Is it overaveraging -- and invalid? Or is it simply data analysis 101 -- and valid? May the best argument win! -- greywolf42 ubi dubium ibi libertas {remove planet for return e-mail} |
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In article ,
greywolf42 wrote: Joseph, *why* do you keep repeating this silly statement? Many people make such claims, but it is not valid science or statistics. You can easily show me wrong, by directing me to a statistics treatise on how to perform measurements below the resolution of the instrument used. I've told you that "resolution" is the incorrect word, and sensitivity is the correct one, and quoted you the paper that shows that the resolution of the instrument in question is 7 degrees, not a number of microK. The units of the sensitivity of the instrument is Kelvin, and the relationship between sensitivity and observing time is called the "radiometer equation" and can easily be found in any standard text, including web pages such as http://www.strw.leidenuniv.nl/~pvdwe.../awt2_13d.html or http://scienceworld.wolfram.com/phys...rEquation.html Or is it simply data analysis 101 -- and valid? An increase in sensitivity (meaning the error going down) as the observing time increases is simple data analysis 101. |
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greywolf42 wrote:
Joseph Lazio wrote in message ... This is Data Analysis 101. Let your detector be anything you want it to be. Let it measure temperature on the sky, volts out of a voltmeter, whatever. If you take a long data stream from it, you can easily measure well below the "resolution" of the detector. [later] it is well known that one can make specific kinds of measurements below the resolution limit of an instrument, Joseph, *why* do you keep repeating this silly statement? Many people make such claims, but it is not valid science or statistics. You can easily show me wrong, by directing me to a statistics treatise on how to perform measurements below the resolution of the instrument used. N.C.Barford, _Experimental_Measurements:_Precision,_Error,_and_ Truth_. This is old and elementary, but it's what we used in the version of "Data Analysis 101" I took 30-some years ago. I do not disagree with what Joseph Lazio wrote above. But greywolf42's lack of knowledge and inability to read have apparently caused him to think otherwise. This is all well known, and is indeed "Data Analysis 101" -- greywolf42 explicitly displays his ignorance here. Tom Roberts (and Bill Rowe), on the other hand, have many times called such processes "overaveraging" (at least when it is applied to experiments that would otherwise disprove SR). i.e.: http://www.google.com/groups?selm=vr....supernews.com "And results reported implying an order of magnitude improvement in resolution over the best the instrument can achieve are very dubious." Yes. A discussion: For a basic measurement like that of the width of my desk, a given technique has a given resolution. For example this meter stick is marked in millimeters, and I can read it to about 0.2 mm resolution. So using it to make a single measurement of the desk, I obtain an answer accurate to ~0.2 mm. If I make a series of such measurements that are STATISTICALLY INDEPENDENT I can improve that accuracy to the limit of the systematic errors involved, by averaging multiple measurements. To make them statistically independent, in this case I must re-apply the meter stick to the desk for each measurement (merely re-reading the scale without repositioning the stick would not give independent measurements). As is well known, under these conditions, the mean of the multiple measurements approaches the actual value to within an error determined by the systematic errors combined with the intrinsic error of the meter stick (~0.2 mm) divided by the square root of the number of measurements contributing to the mean. In this case, some of the systematic errors a errors in scribing the marks on the meter stick optical parallax temperature difference in the meter stick between its calibration and use It should be clear that none of these error sources are affected by averaging, and they are related to the meter stick's construction and manner of use. Now the manufacturer of the meter stick knows about these systematic errors, and does not make heroic efforts to reduce them below a human's ability to read and use it, so they are not enormously smaller than ~0.2 mm. That applies to essentially any instrument. That's why averaging many readings is highly suspect when someone claims an improvement of an order of magnitude over the intrinsic resolution of the instrument. [For instance, wear on the end of the stick can be comparable to that accuracy. That's why the 0 mark is not at the end.] In the measurments greywolf42 references above, on which I commented that they involved overaveraging, the experimenters claimed an improvement of more than an order of magnitude by averaging. None of them could claim their systematic errors were samll enough to justify that smaller resolution. Moreover, most of them had a clear human bias in roundoff, which makes multiple measurements be statistically correlated, which means that averaging does not improve the actual resolution of the mean below the amount of roundoff. For instance, if when reading that meter stick I always rounded up to the next millimeter, it should be clear that the value I obtain will be larger than the actual value, and no amount of averaging multiple measurements will improve the accuracy of the measurement below ~0.5 mm. Tom Roberts |
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![]() "Tom Roberts" wrote in message . com... greywolf42 wrote: Joseph Lazio wrote in message ... This is Data Analysis 101. Let your detector be anything you want it to be. Let it measure temperature on the sky, volts out of a voltmeter, whatever. If you take a long data stream from it, you can easily measure well below the "resolution" of the detector. [later] it is well known that one can make specific kinds of measurements below the resolution limit of an instrument, Joseph, *why* do you keep repeating this silly statement? Many people make such claims, but it is not valid science or statistics. You can easily show me wrong, by directing me to a statistics treatise on how to perform measurements below the resolution of the instrument used. N.C.Barford, _Experimental_Measurements:_Precision,_Error,_and_ Truth_. This is old and elementary, but it's what we used in the version of "Data Analysis 101" I took 30-some years ago. I do not disagree with what Joseph Lazio wrote above. But greywolf42's lack of knowledge and inability to read have apparently caused him to think otherwise. This is all well known, and is indeed "Data Analysis 101" -- greywolf42 explicitly displays his ignorance here. Tom Roberts (and Bill Rowe), on the other hand, have many times called such processes "overaveraging" (at least when it is applied to experiments that would otherwise disprove SR). i.e.: http://www.google.com/groups?selm=vr....supernews.com "And results reported implying an order of magnitude improvement in resolution over the best the instrument can achieve are very dubious." Yes. A discussion: For a basic measurement like that of the width of my desk, a given technique has a given resolution. For example this meter stick is marked in millimeters, and I can read it to about 0.2 mm resolution. So using it to make a single measurement of the desk, I obtain an answer accurate to ~0.2 mm. If I make a series of such measurements that are STATISTICALLY INDEPENDENT I can improve that accuracy to the limit of the systematic errors involved, by averaging multiple measurements. To make them statistically independent, in this case I must re-apply the meter stick to the desk for each measurement (merely re-reading the scale without repositioning the stick would not give independent measurements). As is well known, under these conditions, the mean of the multiple measurements approaches the actual value to within an error determined by the systematic errors combined with the intrinsic error of the meter stick (~0.2 mm) divided by the square root of the number of measurements contributing to the mean. In this case, some of the systematic errors a errors in scribing the marks on the meter stick optical parallax temperature difference in the meter stick between its calibration and use It should be clear that none of these error sources are affected by averaging, and they are related to the meter stick's construction and manner of use. Now the manufacturer of the meter stick knows about these systematic errors, and does not make heroic efforts to reduce them below a human's ability to read and use it, so they are not enormously smaller than ~0.2 mm. That applies to essentially any instrument. That's why averaging many readings is highly suspect when someone claims an improvement of an order of magnitude over the intrinsic resolution of the instrument. [For instance, wear on the end of the stick can be comparable to that accuracy. That's why the 0 mark is not at the end.] In the measurments greywolf42 references above, on which I commented that they involved overaveraging, the experimenters claimed an improvement of more than an order of magnitude by averaging. None of them could claim their systematic errors were samll enough to justify that smaller resolution. Moreover, most of them had a clear human bias in roundoff, which makes multiple measurements be statistically correlated, which means that averaging does not improve the actual resolution of the mean below the amount of roundoff. For instance, if when reading that meter stick I always rounded up to the next millimeter, it should be clear that the value I obtain will be larger than the actual value, and no amount of averaging multiple measurements will improve the accuracy of the measurement below ~0.5 mm. Tom Roberts Excellent! Harald |
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Tom Roberts wrote in message
. com... greywolf42 wrote: Joseph Lazio wrote in message ... This is Data Analysis 101. Let your detector be anything you want it to be. Let it measure temperature on the sky, volts out of a voltmeter, whatever. If you take a long data stream from it, you can easily measure well below the "resolution" of the detector. [later] it is well known that one can make specific kinds of measurements below the resolution limit of an instrument, Joseph, *why* do you keep repeating this silly statement? Many people make such claims, but it is not valid science or statistics. You can easily show me wrong, by directing me to a statistics treatise on how to perform measurements below the resolution of the instrument used. N.C.Barford, _Experimental_Measurements:_Precision,_Error,_and_ Truth_. This is old and elementary, but it's what we used in the version of "Data Analysis 101" I took 30-some years ago. Great! Now please provide the reference properly. Page number (or section) where the text explains how this ability is derived. In other words, where Barford *explicitly* explains how such methods can be used to go below the physical resolution of the instrument. An excerpt would be nice. I do not disagree with what Joseph Lazio wrote above. I can't wait for the explanation! ![]() But greywolf42's lack of knowledge and inability to read have apparently caused him to think otherwise. This is all well known, and is indeed "Data Analysis 101" -- greywolf42 explicitly displays his ignorance here. The standard special plead, ad hominem. Tom Roberts (and Bill Rowe), on the other hand, have many times called such processes "overaveraging" (at least when it is applied to experiments that would otherwise disprove SR). i.e.: http://www.google.com/groups?selm=vr....supernews.com "And results reported implying an order of magnitude improvement in resolution over the best the instrument can achieve are very dubious." Yes. Well, this certainly looks different than your claim, above. In the link above, you were complaining that Miller was providing a measured value of 0.24 fringe, when you agreed that the physical resolution of the device was 0.1 fringe. You were upset about the implication of the second digit. In the above case, the intensity resolution of the COBE is 1 part in 10,000. Yet the "variations" are given with an absolute value that is 10 times below the resolution of the instrument. Which is equivalent to Miller declaring that he had found a value of 0.024 fringe. A discussion: For a basic measurement like that of the width of my desk, a given technique has a given resolution. And for a basic measurement like the width of a fringe, or the position of a star image, a given technique has a given resolution. OK. For example this meter stick is marked in millimeters, and I can read it to about 0.2 mm resolution. So using it to make a single measurement of the desk, I obtain an answer accurate to ~0.2 mm. For example, this interferometer is marked in fringes, and I can read it to about 0.1 fringe resolution. Fore example, this astrometrical CCD is marked in arc-seconds, and I can read it to about 3 milliarc second resolution. If I make a series of such measurements that are STATISTICALLY INDEPENDENT I can improve that accuracy to the limit of the systematic errors involved, by averaging multiple measurements. 1) Can you support this claim, instead of simply assert it? Systematic errors do not affect the error bars on the statistical results. If you know that there is a systematic error, then you redo the experiment. To make them statistically independent, in this case I must re-apply the meter stick to the desk for each measurement (merely re-reading the scale without repositioning the stick would not give independent measurements). Yes, one must actually perform each measurement... not simply count the same measurement 'n' times. As is well known, under these conditions, the mean of the multiple measurements approaches the actual value to within an error determined by the systematic errors combined with the intrinsic error of the meter stick (~0.2 mm) divided by the square root of the number of measurements contributing to the mean. I don't care if you think that it is "well known." I'm looking for an actual reference that this is part of physical, statistical theory. And in Joseph's case, he would be measuring the width of paramecia to be 0.01 mm, using a meter stick. Do you think that this is valid? In the case of the Hipparcos-light-bending crew, this would be claiming a result of 0.000013 +- .000002 mm (using the meter stick with resolution of 0.2 mm). Is this valid, Tom? In this case, some of the systematic errors a errors in scribing the marks on the meter stick This isn't "systematic" error. This can be avoided by using a different meter stick for each measurement, or measuring over different intervals. optical parallax This isn't systematic error (the observer can move his eyes around). temperature difference in the meter stick between its calibration and use This is not systematic error, for it can be controlled. Unless the experimenter is not competent. It should be clear that none of these error sources are affected by averaging, and they are related to the meter stick's construction and manner of use. Yes. And real systematic errors can't be quantified within the process of the specific experiment. Now the manufacturer of the meter stick knows about these systematic errors, and does not make heroic efforts to reduce them below a human's ability to read and use it, so they are not enormously smaller than ~0.2 mm. That applies to essentially any instrument. Yes. So your entire digression into systematic errors was a red herring. That's why averaging many readings is highly suspect when someone claims an improvement of an order of magnitude over the intrinsic resolution of the instrument. So, I presume you would agree that claims to 1 part in 100,000 are "highly suspect", when the intrinsic resolution of the instrument is 1 part in 10,000? [For instance, wear on the end of the stick can be comparable to that accuracy. That's why the 0 mark is not at the end.] In the measurments greywolf42 references above, on which I commented that they involved overaveraging, the experimenters claimed an improvement of more than an order of magnitude by averaging. Which is fine by your method, above, so long as "systematic" errors are less than the resolution of the instrument. None of them could claim their systematic errors were samll enough to justify that smaller resolution. Why not, Tom? They didn't have "marking errors", "parallax errors", or "temperature errors." Moreover, most of them had a clear human bias in roundoff, which makes multiple measurements be statistically correlated, Please provide a sample of the data that supports your claim. (For example, evidence of the "sawtooth" bias.) And a measurement of the statistical bias.. which means that averaging does not improve the actual resolution of the mean below the amount of roundoff. No, systematic errors will not change the resolution of the instrument. Nor will they change the resolution (precision) of the result. Systematic errors will change the *accuracy* of the result. But this is simply bad experimental design, and has nothing to do with the statistical "averaging" process. For instance, if when reading that meter stick I always rounded up to the next millimeter, Then you wouldn't have a theoretical resolution of 0.2 mm -- but only of 1 mm. it should be clear that the value I obtain will be larger than the actual value, and no amount of averaging multiple measurements will improve the accuracy of the measurement below ~0.5 mm. But that would simply be a biased experimenter, Tom. Which has nothing to do with averaging. And you have nicely avoided the issue. When you use a meter stick that is (theoretically) precise to 0.2mm, you don't select that instrument to measure paramecia who's absolute diameter is on the order of 0.01mm. You use a meter stick to measure objects with characteristic dimensions on the order of several mm to 1 meter. You want 2 or possibly 3 significant figures. In Miller's case, you claim his results were only 1 significant figure, but he claimed two significant figures. Now, in the Joseph's case, above, we are talking about effects similar to measuring paramecia with a meter stick. The COBE resolution is 1 part in 10,000 at any given intensity. But the absolute value of the reported results are 1 part in 100,000 from the background blackbody curve. -- greywolf42 ubi dubium ibi libertas {remove planet for return e-mail} |
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![]() greywolf42 wrote: If I make a series of such measurements that are STATISTICALLY INDEPENDENT I can improve that accuracy to the limit of the systematic errors involved, by averaging multiple measurements. 1) Can you support this claim, instead of simply assert it? This is just what is usually called "standard error of the mean". The error in the mean of n measurements goes as sqrt(n). The theory is elementary. Suppose each measurement X1, X2,... Xn has a variance of V (so a standard deviation of sqrt(V)). If the measurements are independent, then the variance of Xsum = (X1 + X2 + ... + Xn) = (V + V + ... + V) = n*V. To find the variance of Xmean = Xsum/n, you need to know that for any constant a and random variable X with variance Vx, the variance of aX is a^2*Vx. So the variance of Xmean = Xsum/n is var(Xsum)/n^2 = n*V/n^2 = V/n. The standard deviation of Xmean is sqrt(V)/sqrt(n). Take 100 measurements and you reduce the uncertainty in Xmean by 10. Take 10000 measurements and you reduce it by 100. - Randy |
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In article ,
greywolf42 wrote: Now, in the Joseph's case, above, we are talking about effects similar to measuring paramecia with a meter stick. The COBE resolution is 1 part in 10,000 at any given intensity. But the absolute value of the reported results are 1 part in 100,000 from the background blackbody curve. Well, I see greywolf is back to claiming one part in 10,000 for COBE, when his reference claimed something else. Of course the value that Lerner quoted was for the COBE FIRAS instrument, and the value of 1 in 100,000 was from the COBE DMR instrument, as has been explained to greywolf multiple times. But he seems to find it convenient to ignore data that conflicts with his worldview. |
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On Wed, 19 Jan 2005 06:41:53 +0000, Tom Roberts wrote:
greywolf42 wrote: Joseph Lazio wrote in message ... This is Data Analysis 101. Let your detector be anything you want it to be. Let it measure temperature on the sky, volts out of a voltmeter, whatever. If you take a long data stream from it, you can easily measure well below the "resolution" of the detector. [later] it is well known that one can make specific kinds of measurements below the resolution limit of an instrument, Joseph, *why* do you keep repeating this silly statement? Many people make such claims, but it is not valid science or statistics. You can easily show me wrong, by directing me to a statistics treatise on how to perform measurements below the resolution of the instrument used. N.C.Barford, _Experimental_Measurements:_Precision,_Error,_and_ Truth_. This is old and elementary, but it's what we used in the version of "Data Analysis 101" I took 30-some years ago. Tom, Can you tell me what level that book is written at? I'm trying to do some learning in this area, and a good book would be useful... Thanks JP |
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JP wrote:
On Wed, 19 Jan 2005 06:41:53 +0000, Tom Roberts wrote: N.C.Barford, _Experimental_Measurements:_Precision,_Error,_and_ Truth_. This is old and elementary, but it's what we used in the version of "Data Analysis 101" I took 30-some years ago. Can you tell me what level that book is written at? I'm trying to do some learning in this area, and a good book would be useful... I dug it out of the back of my bookshelf, blew the dust off, and briefly thumbed through it before giving it as a reference. It is rather elementary. I took a course using it as a textbook as either a freshman or sophomore while at Purdue, majoring in physics; that would be 1971 or 1972. As I said, it's old. It's not alone in that.... It's quite remarkable that I not only remembered its existence, but also its color, shape, general appearance, and approximate location; but not its author or exact title. Tom Roberts |
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In article ,
"greywolf42" wrote: Tom Roberts wrote in message . com... greywolf42 wrote: Joseph, *why* do you keep repeating this silly statement? Many people make such claims, but it is not valid science or statistics. You can easily show me wrong, by directing me to a statistics treatise on how to perform measurements below the resolution of the instrument used. N.C.Barford, _Experimental_Measurements:_Precision,_Error,_and_ Truth_. This is old and elementary, but it's what we used in the version of "Data Analysis 101" I took 30-some years ago. Great! Now please provide the reference properly. Page number (or section) where the text explains how this ability is derived. In other words, where Barford *explicitly* explains how such methods can be used to go below the physical resolution of the instrument. This is nothing more than a poor attempt to either get someone to do your home work for you or shut down a discussion. As Roberts said, this really is data analysis 101. If you are really so dense as to not understand, then you certainly should not be employed in any position where it is necessary to analysis data in a meaningful way. But greywolf42's lack of knowledge and inability to read have apparently caused him to think otherwise. This is all well known, and is indeed "Data Analysis 101" -- greywolf42 explicitly displays his ignorance here. The standard special plead, ad hominem. Stating what is clearly demonstrated by your posts is an observation not ad hominem snip If I make a series of such measurements that are STATISTICALLY INDEPENDENT I can improve that accuracy to the limit of the systematic errors involved, by averaging multiple measurements. 1) Can you support this claim, instead of simply assert it? Do you have any familiarity at all with basic statistics? In particular the central limit theorem? If so, it should be immediately apparent Tom's claim above is a direct consequence of the central limit theorem. And if you are not familiar with it pick up any reasonable basic text on statistics, go to the index or table of contents and find central limit theorem and turn to the referenced page. Systematic errors do not affect the error bars on the statistical results. If you know that there is a systematic error, then you redo the experiment. True, and this has nothing at all to do with the comment about averaging independent observations. To make them statistically independent, in this case I must re-apply the meter stick to the desk for each measurement (merely re-reading the scale without repositioning the stick would not give independent measurements). Yes, one must actually perform each measurement... not simply count the same measurement 'n' times. True, but meaningless as human beings are unable to achieve what is required. They cannot help but remember what they did moments before and repeat the measurement in essentially the same way. Hence, repeated measurements made by humans one after another never really achieve statistical independence. As is well known, under these conditions, the mean of the multiple measurements approaches the actual value to within an error determined by the systematic errors combined with the intrinsic error of the meter stick (~0.2 mm) divided by the square root of the number of measurements contributing to the mean. I don't care if you think that it is "well known." I'm looking for an actual reference that this is part of physical, statistical theory. What Tom states here is nothing more than translating the central limit theorem into a written procedure. Choose any basic text on statistics. And in Joseph's case, he would be measuring the width of paramecia to be 0.01 mm, using a meter stick. Do you think that this is valid? In the case of the Hipparcos-light-bending crew, this would be claiming a result of 0.000013 +- .000002 mm (using the meter stick with resolution of 0.2 mm). Is this valid, Tom? In this case, some of the systematic errors a errors in scribing the marks on the meter stick This isn't "systematic" error. This can be avoided by using a different meter stick for each measurement, or measuring over different intervals. A systematic error is any error that causes a consistent offset in the mean of the measured values from the mean of the true values. Since the normal manufacturing process would not be to inscribe each graduation on a meter stick individually and independently, errors in inscribing graduations will be systematic errors. And yes, this can be detected by using a different meter stick made using an independent manufacturing process. Note, detected not corrected. And, this is never done in practice unless there is clear evidence of a problem with the existing meter stick. optical parallax This isn't systematic error (the observer can move his eyes around). Certainly and observer can move his viewpoint. But this isn't much of a solution in practice. Basically, what one would do is move your viewpoint until you got what you thought was the best reading. But since we tend to do things the same way over and over again, you simply trade one bias for another. temperature difference in the meter stick between its calibration and use This is not systematic error, for it can be controlled. Unless the experimenter is not competent. No matter how competent and experimenter is there are limits to how well any environmental factor can be controlled and measured. In the case of temperature, it is impossible to make buffer against the environment temperature and have 0 temperature gradient (so that the point at which you measure temperature is the temperature that is important) at the same time. It should be clear that none of these error sources are affected by averaging, and they are related to the meter stick's construction and manner of use. Yes. And real systematic errors can't be quantified within the process of the specific experiment. Now the manufacturer of the meter stick knows about these systematic errors, and does not make heroic efforts to reduce them below a human's ability to read and use it, so they are not enormously smaller than ~0.2 mm. That applies to essentially any instrument. Yes. So your entire digression into systematic errors was a red herring. That's why averaging many readings is highly suspect when someone claims an improvement of an order of magnitude over the intrinsic resolution of the instrument. So, I presume you would agree that claims to 1 part in 100,000 are "highly suspect", when the intrinsic resolution of the instrument is 1 part in 10,000? Do you not understand the difference between saying a measurement is accurate to 10 ppm because your instrument as an accuracy of 10 ppm and saying to can average 100 readings to improve the resolution of the of the instrument by a factor of 10 over the specified resolution of the instrument? These are two separate and distinct things. A claim of accuracy of 10 ppm using an instrument specified to have that accuracy is not suspect. A claim that resolution was improved by a factor of 10 over the specified resolution of the instrument by averaging is "highly suspect". So suspect as to be considered invalid. Averaging only improves resolution when measurements are statistically independent. Repeated measurements by humans don't achieve this. And statistical independence won't always be enough even if it could be achieved by eliminating all human bias and systematic error. For averaging to work its magic, the central limit has to apply. And the central limit theorem does not apply to all distributions. rest snipped -- To reply via email subtract one hundred nine |
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