Earth almost put on impact alert

"Astronomers have revealed how they came within minutes of alerting
the world to a potential asteroid strike last month.

"Some scientists believed on 13 January that a 30m object had a
one-in-four chance of hitting the planet within 36 hours."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3517319.stm

Scary.

Paul Neave:
"Astronomers have revealed how they came within minutes of alerting
the world to a potential asteroid strike last month.

"Some scientists believed on 13 January that a 30m object had a
one-in-four chance of hitting the planet within 36 hours."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3517319.stm

Scary.

Indeed. _Science_ reported "It was all over in 6 hours, but the
commotion triggered last month when a threatening asteroid popped up
still has astronomers buzzing. The incident demonstrated that
researchers have little idea how they should respond to the detection
of an object that may hit Earth within days. 'Nobody was in charge,'
says planetary scientist Clark Chapman of the Southwest Research
Institute in Boulder, Colorado. 'Things worked out right, but it was
more or less good luck.'"

The _Science_ article concluded "Late that night, a Colorado amateur
astronomer averted an embarrassing false alarm by failing to find
2004AS1 on its predicted collision course. A day later, European
professionals relocated it, and MPC put out a formal announcement
confirming it wouldn't be hitting anything. That hasn't resolved
matters of risk perception, but all agree on the need to figure out how
to respond to future alarms."

Davoud

--
usenet *at* davidillig dawt com

The again, the down side is Earth suffers an impact, with no warning given,
because they could'nt make the analysis in time to say
"We are 100% certain of impact" I wonder were the % line of public
notification is?
Orion

"Paul Neave" wrote in message
...
"Astronomers have revealed how they came within minutes of alerting
the world to a potential asteroid strike last month.

"Some scientists believed on 13 January that a 30m object had a
one-in-four chance of hitting the planet within 36 hours."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3517319.stm

Scary.




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"Orion" wrote in message
...
The again, the down side is Earth suffers an impact, with no warning
given,
because they could'nt make the analysis in time to say
"We are 100% certain of impact" I wonder were the % line of public
notification is?
Orion

"Paul Neave" wrote in message
...
"Astronomers have revealed how they came within minutes of alerting
the world to a potential asteroid strike last month.

"Some scientists believed on 13 January that a 30m object had a
one-in-four chance of hitting the planet within 36 hours."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3517319.stm

Scary.


To be honest does it matter? At such short notice it is unlikely that any
real effective evacuation could be done and you could argue that causing a
panic could simply make things worse.

Martin

This story illustrates the absurdity of asteroid defense schemes. Even such
a close object could not be tracked with any accuracy ("25% chance of
hitting earth" becomes "missed by 12 million miles!"). Calculations on an
object further away would have had even more uncertainty. Conclusion: the
idea of giving a object a preventive "nudge" presumes that we know in fact
it is definitely making a beeline for us--which will not be the case,
particularly when it's far enough out to do something about it. Standard of
accuracy is 8000 miles (the diameter of the earth). Sounds like there are
several orders of magnitude of precision lacking.

When you see someone looking for asteroid defense money, react as you would
to P. T. Barnum--hang onto your wallet.

Joe

Martin wrote:

"Orion" wrote in message
...
The again, the down side is Earth suffers an impact, with no warning
given,
because they could'nt make the analysis in time to say
"We are 100% certain of impact" I wonder were the % line of public
notification is?
Orion

"Paul Neave" wrote in message
...
"Astronomers have revealed how they came within minutes of alerting
the world to a potential asteroid strike last month.

"Some scientists believed on 13 January that a 30m object had a
one-in-four chance of hitting the planet within 36 hours."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3517319.stm

Scary.


To be honest does it matter? At such short notice it is unlikely that any
real effective evacuation could be done and you could argue that causing a
panic could simply make things worse.

Martin

Yes that is true, but I would like the people with fingers on 'the' button to
know before it happens.

Dan

This story illustrates the absurdity of asteroid defense schemes. Even such
a close object could not be tracked with any accuracy ("25% chance of
hitting earth" becomes "missed by 12 million miles!"). Calculations on an
object further away would have had even more uncertainty. Conclusion: the
idea of giving a object a preventive "nudge" presumes that we know in fact
it is definitely making a beeline for us--which will not be the case,
particularly when it's far enough out to do something about it. Standard of
accuracy is 8000 miles (the diameter of the earth). Sounds like there are
several orders of magnitude of precision lacking.

When you see someone looking for asteroid defense money, react as you would
to P. T. Barnum--hang onto your wallet.

Joe




Obviously you know NOTHING about how accurate orbital calculations can be when
the measurements are spread out over years rather than a day or 2.....

Blll

"Dan McKenna" wrote in message
...


Martin wrote:

"Orion" wrote in message
...
The again, the down side is Earth suffers an impact, with no warning
given,
because they could'nt make the analysis in time to say
"We are 100% certain of impact" I wonder were the % line of public
notification is?
Orion

"Paul Neave" wrote in message
...
"Astronomers have revealed how they came within minutes of alerting
the world to a potential asteroid strike last month.

"Some scientists believed on 13 January that a 30m object had a
one-in-four chance of hitting the planet within 36 hours."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3517319.stm

Scary.


To be honest does it matter? At such short notice it is unlikely that
any
real effective evacuation could be done and you could argue that causing
a
panic could simply make things worse.

Martin

Yes that is true, but I would like the people with fingers on 'the' button
to
know before it happens.

Dan

The problem is that if the object is not guaranteed to hit us, but someone
(quite who would decide, the UN?) who decides to try and blow up something
coming in, or even nudge it away , could end up turning it into several
large lumps one or more of which may then definitely hit us.

We've argued this issue before on this group and I don't think we've ever
had any agreement. So god knows what chance there would be for the UN. In
the movies Deep Impact & Armageddon there was never any reference to the
United Nations. The USA appeared to act on it's own on behalf of the World.
I somehow doubt if that would be accepted in real life.

Martin

Does it matter? Hell yes it matters.
Even though I may not have time to escape, I'd like at least to know what /
where impact is so I can spend my last moments of life with my family
viewing the most spectacular astronomical event in our lifetime!
Orion

"Martin" wrote in message
...

"Orion" wrote in message
...
The again, the down side is Earth suffers an impact, with no warning
given,
because they could'nt make the analysis in time to say
"We are 100% certain of impact" I wonder were the % line of public
notification is?
Orion

"Paul Neave" wrote in message
...
"Astronomers have revealed how they came within minutes of alerting
the world to a potential asteroid strike last month.

"Some scientists believed on 13 January that a 30m object had a
one-in-four chance of hitting the planet within 36 hours."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3517319.stm

Scary.


To be honest does it matter? At such short notice it is unlikely that any
real effective evacuation could be done and you could argue that causing a
panic could simply make things worse.

Martin




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Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
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"Orion" wrote in message
...
Does it matter? Hell yes it matters.
Even though I may not have time to escape, I'd like at least to know what
/
where impact is so I can spend my last moments of life with my family
viewing the most spectacular astronomical event in our lifetime!
Orion





I sure you know best for your own situation.


But for me - I wonder if I might not want to be away from my family since I
am probably going to be seeing them very shortly for eternity. I'm thinking
of going ice skating or something I've never done in L.A. Maybe go into a
Pottery Barn - never been there. I also would like to really floor my car
over the Tehachapi pass. Really really floor it. But I am afraid that there
might be an exodus of people trying to somehow survive in the wild lands of
Central California and the Great basin areas.

Also, what if there were some kind of "sweet spot" where the forces exactly
canceled out like in a acoustically dead spot in a theater? Maybe even
though the titanic shock waves and land waves and disruptions in the
atmosphere bringing perhaps, it great rips, spacelike conditions to the
earth... maybe there is a spot where everything cancels out and you would be
ok?

That could just as easily be in a Pottery Barn as anywhere else. You might
be standing there looking at the four foot high Aztec vase for the front
entry and not notice anything, decide there was a reason you never went to a
Pottery Barn, vow not to come back, open the store door and there is the
darkness of oblivion maybe with a few mountain ranges floating far away over
the void and the edge of space rushing toward you as the micro atmosphere
surrounding the store floats away.

Jump in the vase and seal yourself up with handfuls of linen products and
you'd be ok. It is hard to be truly brutal but if you had your family they'd
all want in and there wouldn't be room.