PRC interference with US sats -- situation unclear

http://worldpoliticswatch.com/article.aspx?id=267

Top Commander: Chinese Interference With U.S. Satellites Uncertain
Elaine M. Grossman
18 Oct 2006
Inside the Pentagon
[EXCERPTS]

Gen. James Cartwright, the top U.S. military officer in charge of
operations in space, says the United States has not seen clear
indications that China has intentionally disrupted American satellite
capabilities.

In an interview last month, Inside the Pentagon asked the U.S.
Strategic Command chief about allegations made by some uniformed
officials and civilian experts that the Chinese military in recent
years has tested the means to harm or destroy American satellites.

"Your [question pertains] to someone actually with intent interfering
out there," Cartwright said during the Sept. 21 Pentagon interview.
"And we really haven't seen that."

The Marine Corps general declined to address details about the
capabilities or actions of specific nations.

But he said it is only "prudent" for the U.S. military to improve its
ability to monitor space assets, given the possibility of future
meddling.

"You have to expect that any place you put commerce and you put value,
there will be competition in that environment," Cartwright told ITP.
His command, whose responsibilities also include nuclear weapons and
missile defense, is headquartered in Omaha, Neb.

[snip]

A growing Chinese capability to target objects in orbit has proved
troubling to a number of defense and intelligence community officials.

In May, the Pentagon sent a report to Congress on Chinese military
capabilities that offered little detail about anti-satellite efforts.
But it noted, "At least one of the satellite attack systems appears to
be a ground-based laser designed to damage or blind imaging
satellites."

Defense News, a trade newspaper, last month cited unnamed U.S.
officials contending China has actually used lasers on several
occasions over the past few years to test an ability to blind U.S.
satellites.

"China not only has the capability, but has exercised it," the
publication reported Sept. 25.

Asked last week to respond to the assertions contained in the Defense
News article, Cartwright said he would not address specifics "because
it might lead our adversaries to speculate about our capabilities."

But in his e-mailed response, he said, "The Department of Defense has
been aware that China is conducting research to develop ground-based
laser anti-satellite weapons."

Cartwright's earlier comments during the Sept. 21 interview "were meant
to ensure that your readers were not left with the impression there are
nations routinely operating in space with hostile intent against our
national assets," the general said last week.

For its part, the Chinese government-dominated media is attempting to
refute the trade journal piece.

[snip]

Back in the United States, several China experts in and outside the
government say that while the Chinese interest in space clearly extends
to its military sector, evidence of exercises is murkier than portrayed
by the Defense News article. Some say basic facts reported in the
article are accurate. But others note that events occurring in space
that might be interpreted as combat preparation or exercises in fact
remain mysterious. The international community can only speculate about
motives, these officials say.

Because the details are highly classified, debate over Chinese
activities and intentions in space has flared mainly behind closed
doors, according to experts.

"Layers and layers of classification" shroud information about
satellites the United States has fielded in space, international
capabilities to harm those satellites, and actions the U.S. military
has taken to protect its space-based assets or potentially harm others,
according to one source.

Even for those with top-secret clearances, a considerable obstacle to
interpreting Chinese actions in space with confidence is a limited U.S.
ability to monitor and investigate what goes on in orbit -- something
the military calls "situational awareness."

"We've done a good job so far cataloging what is up there but the time
has come to take the next step" -- namely, improving situational
awareness, Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, head of Air Force Space
Command, said in an August conference speech.

Some experts say the United States has detected miniature Chinese
satellites placed in orbit nearby U.S. military communications and
imaging satellites.

Some are close enough to sensitive U.S. satellites that they could
"cause damage if they are packed with conventional high explosives,"
says John Tkacik, a senior fellow in Asian studies at the Heritage
Foundation in Washington.

However, two years ago, analysts with the Union of Concerned Scientists
called into question the veracity of Chinese news reports about the
potentially "parasitic" microsatellites, cited by the Pentagon in past
reports to Congress.

Meanwhile, Chilton seeks a clearer picture on a minute-by-minute basis.

"I want . . . to be able to tell the combatant commander, Gen.
Cartwright, the capabilities and owner's intentions of any new object
put into space," he said in his conference speech. "I want to know if
they maneuver. And if they calve a micro-sat. And if they are a threat
to any of our systems."

[snip]

Until improvements are made, divining the meaning of suspicious events
in space is a bit like the Kremlinology that Soviet experts in the West
practiced during the Cold War.

"Interpretations are mixed," says one senior military officer,
interviewed this week by ITP on condition of not being named. "[There
is] much discussion about what was done and not done, but to me the
important point is that country's pursuit of the capability."

"There may be a controversy about interpreting various events," agrees
another official, who said the situation is analogous to intelligence
community debate over pre-war intelligence about the existence of Iraqi
weapons of mass destruction.

In last month's interview, Cartwright said the way in which the United
States responds to unexplained events in space may affect future
relations between world powers.

"Will it turn hostile at any point?" the general asked. "[That] is
something that you certainly don't want to hasten by the wrong actions.
But you [also] certainly don't want to be disadvantaged by sitting on
your hands when you should have been thinking about, gosh, what would
be the next step?"

The senior military officer, who demanded anonymity for this article
because he was not authorized to speak publicly about this issue,
echoed Cartwright's concerns.

"[We] don't want to portray them as the 10-foot-tall 'panda,' but we
shouldn't be too naïve about their capability and intent, either," the
official said.

"I'm not sure the U.S. government wants to come out and accuse the
Chinese of doing this sort of thing unless there is unambiguous
evidence," says Michael Swaine, a senior associate at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace in Washington. For the Bush
administration, it is "more urgent" at this time to win Chinese
cooperation in imposing sanctions on North Korea following its claim of
an Oct. 9 nuclear weapons test and in restraining Iran's nuclear
development program, he said.

"It is not necessarily in the U.S. interest to confront [China] with
this, at least not publicly," Swaine told ITP in an Oct. 11 interview.

"It would be tragic if paranoia about a China threat were used to
accuse them of this kind of highly sophisticated action," Michael
Pillsbury, an adviser to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld on
Sino-American policy, said this week.

Cartwright says he is using a newly opened Joint Space Operations
Center to ensure U.S. satellites, as well as international partners in
space, adhere to common "rules of the road" -- much like the government
sets and enforces driving behavior and speed limits on American
highways.

In the space arena, when the United States detects that something has
gone wrong, the first questions typically asked are, "Gee, was it our
satellite that wandered off course? Was it someone else's?" Cartwright
said. "It's not a . . . pointing-a-finger thing. But it is an
understanding of responsibility and making sure that we have some
measure [of behavior]. You expect me to stay on the right-hand side of
the road when you approach me and that type of thing."

As space becomes more crowded with satellites, the need to enforce
common operating rules becomes more urgent, he said. Greater
international adherence to those rules could make it easier to
interpret any deviations from common practice, according to the
general.

"There are 16 or more nations with a demonstrated capability to operate
10 or more satellites on orbit," Cartwright said in his Oct. 11
e-mailed response to questions. "Seven of the 16 nations are non-NATO
countries, to include China, Russia, India, South Korea, Indonesia,
Brazil and Japan. We expect many more nations to expand their national
interests into space and, unfortunately, we anticipate some will
challenge the free use of space."

The United States, he said, "is committed to the use of outer space by
all nations for peaceful purposes and seeks to cooperate with others,
consistent with international space treaty obligations."