"More of the Same" vs "Mixed Messages" Who won the debate?

Kerry gets a bump, the market tanks tomorrow.
Imho


Bush .... "Iranian Moolahs"


That's a keeper~



S

NASDAQ is up more than 3% during the first two trading days of October.
Maybe the market likes Kerry.

- Ed Kyle

On 4 Oct 2004 08:23:35 -0700, in a place far, far away,
made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a
way as to indicate that:

NASDAQ is up more than 3% during the first two trading days of October.
Maybe the market likes Kerry.

What makes you think the market thinks that Kerry is going to win?

Truthfully, I have to say that after closely watching the stock market
(and my own investments in it) for decades, I have absolutely no idea
what the market is thinking short term (which explains the "maybe" ).
This is, after all, the same market that thought it was a good idea to
buy stocks when the NASDAQ was at 5000.

- Ed Kyle

On 4 Oct 2004 09:50:46 -0700, in a place far, far away,
made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a
way as to indicate that:

Truthfully, I have to say that after closely watching the stock market
(and my own investments in it) for decades, I have absolutely no idea
what the market is thinking short term (which explains the "maybe" ).
This is, after all, the same market that thought it was a good idea to
buy stocks when the NASDAQ was at 5000.

Bush is down from his pre-debate highs in the Iowa Electronic Market
(you definitely could have made some good money by buying Kerry last
week), but the traders still think he'll be re-elected by a healthy
margin (58-42)

http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm

wrote in message
oups.com...
Truthfully, I have to say that after closely watching the stock market
(and my own investments in it) for decades, I have absolutely no idea
what the market is thinking short term (which explains the "maybe" ).
This is, after all, the same market that thought it was a good idea to
buy stocks when the NASDAQ was at 5000.


If you look at the ten year charts of the Dow and Nasdaq, put
em side by side, it becomes clear what is going on.
The internet in the 90's drove both to bubble. The
Nasdaq was driven much harder since the new
force, the internet, effected it far more. But both
markets have just completed a dead-cat bounce which
defines the end of the pattern. Much like the boundary
between two wavelengths. So each is about to enter
a completely new pattern of behavior. Right now is
the transition between the old pattern of the nineties
and what is to come.

The Nasdaq was driven into chaos and predictably crashed.
While the Dow bounced off the edge and recovered.
Typically, I would expect the Dow to outperform the
Nasdaq long run since a pattern that crashed typically
takes a much longer time to recover.

In any event I expect both markets to weakly repeat
their last pattern. Which is a great thing imo.


Jonathan

s






- Ed Kyle

"Jonathan" wrote in message ...
wrote in message
oups.com...
Truthfully, I have to say that after closely watching the stock market
(and my own investments in it) for decades, I have absolutely no idea
what the market is thinking short term

If you look at the ten year charts of the Dow and Nasdaq, put
em side by side, it becomes clear what is going on.
The internet in the 90's drove both to bubble ... [followed by a]
... dead-cat bounce ... So each is about to enter
a completely new pattern of behavior. ...
I expect both markets to weakly repeat
their last pattern. Which is a great thing imo.


I just read a good book about the markets co-authored
by Ben Stein (actor/humorist/Harvard economics). The
authors did an extensive study of market history to
show that it was impossible to time the market with
technical analysis wizardary unless your time horizon
was 10-15 years long or longer. By their figuring,
the market has been overvalued since about 1984.
The stuff going on now might be the beginning of a
late 1960s-early 1970s repeat (where the market
first bubbled, recovered like 2003-4, then lost half
its value and didn't recover for another decade in the
midst of rising oil prices - that would have been a
*really* good time to buy stocks BTW) or it might be
1929-early 30s (when the market tanked, recovered,
then tanked worse, recovered, then tanked again), or
it might be the early 1900s, when the market collapsed,
recovered, and then moved sideways for awhile, or it
might be that the market is about to triple - who
knows?. I sure don't.

John Bogle of Vanguard did a study that showed that
the hapless average stock mutual fund investor has
only managed about 2% returns since 1990 or so. This
during the biggest market value explosion ever. The
suits selling mutual funds have done a bit better...

- Ed Kyle

wrote in message
ups.com...

NASDAQ is up more than 3% during the first two trading days of October.
Maybe the market likes Kerry.


I had thought a Kerry win would send the market down, fearing
higher taxes under Kerry. But I think you're correct.




- Ed Kyle

wrote:
NASDAQ is up more than 3% during the first two trading days of October.
Maybe the market likes Kerry.

Ummm, ok, I think I see how this goes. Market goes down =
bad for Bush. Market goes up = good for Kerry.

Erm, yeah...