Increased hurricane activity linked to sea surface warming

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releas...-iha012808.php

kT wrote:

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releas...-iha012808.php

Post Hurricane Katrina the Gulf of Mexico enjoyed the two warmest
surface water temp years in recorded history. Like Christ coming
back, if you wait long enough you can exhort the mob to wait longer
until it happens.

In other words, bull****.

Tell China about Global Warming. 50 million Chinese New Year
travelers are freezing their yellow asses off waiting for
transportation that is paralyzed in the cold. Test of faith!

How much incremental foodstuffs are needed to feed 50 million stranded
people for a week? That's reality, git. That is the stuff that
kindles burning cities.

--
Uncle Al
http://www.mazepath.com/uncleal/
(Toxic URL! Unsafe for children and most mammals)
http://www.mazepath.com/uncleal/lajos.htm#a2

Uncle Al wrote:
kT wrote:
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releas...-iha012808.php

Post Hurricane Katrina the Gulf of Mexico enjoyed the two warmest
surface water temp years in recorded history. Like Christ coming
back, if you wait long enough you can exhort the mob to wait longer
until it happens.

But the greater Atlantic basin was cooler than normal, filled with wind
shear and sub Saharan red dust. It takes a hurricane to get into the
gulf of Mexico in order for it to blow up like they did in 2005.

Notice also the two hurricanes that did get into the Caribbean did blow
up into category five straight landfalling shooters they were. Hurricane
trajectories were fortunately depressed by prevailing winds last year.

In other words, bull****.

No, just complexity, Allan.

Tell China about Global Warming. 50 million Chinese New Year
travelers are freezing their yellow asses off waiting for
transportation that is paralyzed in the cold. Test of faith!

Or a vigorous la Nina year.

How much incremental foodstuffs are needed to feed 50 million stranded
people for a week? That's reality, git. That is the stuff that
kindles burning cities.

Let them burn American dollars.

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

"kT" wrote in message
...
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releas...-iha012808.php
You say Tomatoe, I say Tomato.
- - - - -
Rising ocean temperatures linked to global warming could decrease the number
of hurricanes hitting the United States, say researchers. But their findings
have been questioned by some at a recent meteorology conference.

The new study challenges research suggesting that global warming could be
contributing to an increase in the frequency and the intensity of Atlantic
hurricanes. Hurricanes feed on warm water, leading to conventional wisdom
supported by recent research that global warming could be revving up more
powerful storms.

Chunzai Wang of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and
Sang-Ki Lee of the University of Miami, US, examined 150 years of hurricane
records and found a small decline in hurricanes making landfall in the
United States as oceans warmed

http://environment.newscientist.com/...-a-storm-.html

- - - -

SBC Yahoo wrote:

"kT" wrote in message
...
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releas...-iha012808.php
You say Tomatoe, I say Tomato.
- - - - -
Rising ocean temperatures linked to global warming could decrease the number
of hurricanes hitting the United States, say researchers.

This paper has been reviewed by his peers and deemed to be very poor, in
particular, the narrowing of scope to only landfalling hurricanes pushes
the result into the realm of meaninglessness, and his comments on the
matter further label him as a William Gray and Chris Landsea groupie.

Comment by Dr. Kevin Trenberth, Head of the Climate Analysis Section

NCAR

How hurricanes change as the climate changes is a critical issue. The
devastation caused by Katrina in August 2005 indicates what is at stake.
However, the past record is troubled by inadequate observations,
especially prior to about 1970 when satellites came along. There is
large natural variability. Hurricanes are not simulated realistically
in global climate models. And theoretical understanding is still
developing.

The latest contribution to the scientific literature by Chunzai Wang and
Sang-Ki Li, published in Geophysical Research Letters on Jan 23, 2008
rightly points out the global competition for where hurricanes occur.
The Atlantic has only about 10% of the total number of tropical storms;
most occur over the Northwest Pacific Ocean where they often threaten
the Philippines, China, and Japan. In the northern hemisphere, the
other main regions are the eastern Pacific off Mexico, and the Indian
Ocean. But as more favorable conditions develop in one of these basins,
it typically has an adverse effect on storms in other basins owing to
related changes in the global tropical atmospheric circulation, and in
particular the wind shear. Developing vortices in the atmosphere
typically get blown apart before they can become strong storms if the
low- and upper-level atmospheric winds are not in synch. Wind shear is
the phenomenon where winds aloft are either different in direction or
strength than those near the surface.

Other important factors include the sea surface temperatures and
atmospheric water vapor, which are related to the sources of fuel for
the hurricanes, in the regions where storms form. Hence when conditions
are more favorable in the Pacific, such as during El Niño events,
hurricane activity is suppressed in the Atlantic. This situation
occurred in 2006 and 1997 (the most active year globally on record).
Similarly, on the occasions where sea temperatures are high in the
Indian Ocean and that region is favorable for convective activity, as
happened in 2007 (witness cyclone Sidr that made landfall in Bangladesh
as a devastating category 4 hurricane in November), hurricane activity
is less in the Atlantic. In contrast, in 2005 the Atlantic Ocean
reigned and brought with it a record breaking hurricane season.

With global warming, sea temperatures and water vapor are increasing and
expected to increase further, generally making the environment more
favorable for tropical storm activity. But how the expected increase in
activity is manifested is less clear. Current understanding is that the
intensity and perhaps the size will increase, but the number may
actually decrease, as one powerful storm saps the energy from the ocean
much more than several smaller storms. But the other key issue is where
will the storms go? In particular will they make landfall?

Wang and his colleague weigh in on this by relating their statistics to
land-falling storms. The trouble is that the latter are so few in
number that they are not reliable indicators of activity. Considerable
controversy on this topic, highlighted in work by Chris Landsea and
countered by articles by Greg Holland and Michael Mann that point out
why use of land-falling storms is misleading. Unfortunately, several
works related to these aspects are not accounted for by Wang and Lee,
and their conclusions on this point are suspect. Their trends on wind
shear are also highly suspect, again owing to changes in information as
satellites became available in the 1970s that were not accounted for.
Accordingly, Wang’s conclusions do not account for the back-to-back
record number of Atlantic land-falling storms in 2004 and 2005.

Nevertheless, Wang and Lee correctly recognize that the spatial
distribution of warming matters, and they highlight an important issue
both scientifically and for the potential effects on society.

For a discussion of tropical cyclones and climate change see

Trenberth, K. E., 2007: Warmer oceans, stronger hurricanes. Scientific
American, July, 2007, pp 45?51.

SBC Yahoo wrote:

"kT" wrote in message
...
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releas...-iha012808.php
You say Tomatoe, I say Tomato.
- - - - -
Rising ocean temperatures linked to global warming could decrease the number
of hurricanes hitting the United States, say researchers. But their findings
have been questioned by some at a recent meteorology conference.

The new study challenges research suggesting that global warming could be
contributing to an increase in the frequency and the intensity of Atlantic
hurricanes. Hurricanes feed on warm water, leading to conventional wisdom
supported by recent research that global warming could be revving up more
powerful storms.

Chunzai Wang of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and
Sang-Ki Lee of the University of Miami, US, examined 150 years of hurricane
records and found a small decline in hurricanes making landfall in the
United States as oceans warmed

No cat, no cradle.

--
Uncle Al
http://www.mazepath.com/uncleal/
(Toxic URL! Unsafe for children and most mammals)
http://www.mazepath.com/uncleal/lajos.htm#a2

"kT" wrote in message
...
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releas...-iha012808.php
I don't see in the above that the oceanic seasonal thermocline has been
taken into consideration.
A simple increase in oceanic surface temperature at any given time may
increase the number of tropical storms, but this does not address the actual
intensity they may achieve.
The intensity of large tropical storms (hurricanes, cyclones) is limited by
the depth of the tropical surface oceanic thermocline to a very large
degree.
In tropical waters the upper surface layer is around 10 fathoms, and remains
so year round. The boundary between this layer, and the cooler water below
is very narrow and can be observed on a vessels depth sounder as an almost
solid, and surprisingly stable, line.
When an oceanic storm of the magnitude of hurricanes travels across oceanic
waters the large waves it produces tend to disrupt this layer. It is this
disruption that limits the intensity that such a storm may develop by mixing
the normally stable upper thermocline with the colder water below. Thereby
moderating the energy available to the storm.
Although this upper layer of warm water is normally very stable at around 10
fathoms it may increase in depth, or decrease, due to other factors.
The Gulf of Mexico is a volatile area with respect to this upper layer of
warm water. If prevailing surface winds tend to generally be westerly for a
considerable period, and are of sufficient magnitude over this area they
will tend to push a greater mass of this upper layer of warm water into the
region. This results in an increase in depth of the upper thermocline.
Prevailing oceanic currents may either increase this effect, or help to
minimize it, depending on their activity at any given time. If the
conditions are such that considerable deepening of the thermocline is
produced there is a vastly increased chance of storms achieving unusual
intensities.
When these conditions are in place the layer closer to the mainland is
warmer and deeper so seeing a tropical storm increasing in intensity as it
approaches landfall should not be at all surprising.
During recent years the depth of the thermocline has been observed to be
consistent with the intensity of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.
I'm not saying that an increase in surface water temperature plays no role,
it certainly does, but the article above presents an overly simplistic
argument.
Regards,
Vince

"Vince Morgan" vinharAtHereoptusnet.com.au wrote in message
...
"kT" wrote in message
...
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releas...-iha012808.php

warm water. If prevailing surface winds tend to generally be westerly for
a
Errr, more coffee please. That should be "easterly". Or, in a westerly
direction.

Vince Morgan wrote:

I'm not saying that an increase in surface water temperature plays no role,
it certainly does, but the article above presents an overly simplistic
argument.

It was a press release, they generally are simplifications of the actual
peer reviewed and published papers.

What is clear is that anything that comes out of the University of Miami
or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National
Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center and their primary
researchers is highly suspect, as a quick perusal of Mr. Wang's CV
clearly illustrates. Large tracts of these agencies have been corrupted
by the Bush Administration, and it shows clearly by any examination.

How some of this crap gets past peer review is worthy of investigation.

"kT" wrote in message
...
It was a press release, they generally are simplifications of the actual
peer reviewed and published papers.

What is clear is that anything that comes out of the University of Miami
or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National
Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center and their primary
researchers is highly suspect, as a quick perusal of Mr. Wang's CV
clearly illustrates. Large tracts of these agencies have been corrupted
by the Bush Administration, and it shows clearly by any examination.

How some of this crap gets past peer review is worthy of investigation.
Yep, I'd have to agree with all of the above.