...Hurricane Dean... Third Strongest Ever Recorded...

....for an Atlantic landfalling hurricane.


And btw, coming a good month earlier than most of the competition.



"Hurricane Dean made its first landfall around 3:30 am (Central Time)
Tuesday with 165 mile per hour winds near Costa Maya, Mexico.
It is the first landfalling category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin
since Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida in 1992.
Its pressure of 906 millibars is the third lowest pressure at landfall
behind the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys and
Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 in Cancun, Mexico."
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tr...=wxcenter_news





Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen
all too regularly these days.


Strongest Atlantic Hurricanes on Record


Wilma 882 mb Oct, 2005

Gilbert 888mb Sep, 1988

Florida Keys 892 mb Sep,1935

Allen 899 mb Oct, 1998

Mitch 905mb Oct, 1969

Camille 909 mb Aug, 1969
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/mitch/mitch.html

Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen
all too regularly these days.


A 15 year spead, and that's all too regular?

Harley

"Harley" wrote in message
. com...

Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen
all too regularly these days.


A 15 year spead, and that's all too regular?


In the last three years, we've seen the Atlantic hurricane
season break all time records for number of storms, the
lowest pressure ever, the smallest eye ever (2 miles!!!), and
the most destructive ever.

Most of the biggest records have all fallen in the last three years.
And the very first hurricane of this season is right up there
with the strongest of all time. It's average size mercilessly
helped spare a large population center.

Hurricane Dean had hurricane force winds out to about
60 miles most of the time. While Katrina and Wilma
in 2005 extended out about 100 miles. Making them
much more likely to hit a large population area.



Harley

On Wed, 22 Aug 2007 20:27:02 -0400, in a place far, far away,
"Jonathan" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:


"Harley" wrote in message
.com...

Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen
all too regularly these days.


A 15 year spead, and that's all too regular?


In the last three years, we've seen the Atlantic hurricane
season break all time records for number of storms, the
lowest pressure ever, the smallest eye ever (2 miles!!!), and
the most destructive ever.

You have very limited experience, Grasshopper.

"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 22 Aug 2007 20:27:02 -0400, in a place far, far away,
"Jonathan" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:


"Harley" wrote in message
.com...

Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen
all too regularly these days.


A 15 year spead, and that's all too regular?


In the last three years, we've seen the Atlantic hurricane
season break all time records for number of storms, the
lowest pressure ever, the smallest eye ever (2 miles!!!), and
the most destructive ever.

You have very limited experience, Grasshopper.


On the contrary. My workplace was destroyed by
Andrew. The eye of Katrina went right over my house
and I got some of the strongest winds of Wilma.
Those three are among the top of most of the extreme
lists. I've had to drive home from work in a category one.
And have lost count of the near-misses I've
watched spin by. The dade/broward county line
is best place on earth to experience hurricanes.
It's why the NHC is here, they picked the very
center of the historical paths.

On Aug 22, 8:48 pm, "Jonathan" wrote:
" On the contrary. My workplace was destroyed by
Andrew. The eye of Katrina went right over my house
and I got some of the strongest winds of Wilma.
Those three are among the top of most of the extreme
lists. I've had to drive home from work in a category one.
And have lost count of the near-misses I've
watched spin by. The dade/broward county line
is best place on earth to experience hurricanes.
It's why the NHC is here, they picked the very
center of the historical paths.-


One would think you would get "out of the bullseye". Even animals
know when to move. Oh, I guess you want the government to do something
so you don't have to.

On Wed, 22 Aug 2007 20:48:56 -0400, in a place far, far away,
"Jonathan" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:


"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 22 Aug 2007 20:27:02 -0400, in a place far, far away,
"Jonathan" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:


"Harley" wrote in message
.com...

Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen
all too regularly these days.


A 15 year spead, and that's all too regular?


In the last three years, we've seen the Atlantic hurricane
season break all time records for number of storms, the
lowest pressure ever, the smallest eye ever (2 miles!!!), and
the most destructive ever.

You have very limited experience, Grasshopper.


On the contrary. My workplace was destroyed by
Andrew. The eye of Katrina went right over my house
and I got some of the strongest winds of Wilma.
Those three are among the top of most of the extreme
lists. I've had to drive home from work in a category one.
And have lost count of the near-misses I've
watched spin by. The dade/broward county line
is best place on earth to experience hurricanes.
It's why the NHC is here, they picked the very
center of the historical paths.

In other words, in geological terms, you have very limited experience.

Are you an idiot?

"Jonathan" wrote in message
.. .

"Harley" wrote in message
. com...

Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen
all too regularly these days.


A 15 year spead, and that's all too regular?


In the last three years, we've seen the Atlantic hurricane
season break all time records for number of storms, the
lowest pressure ever, the smallest eye ever (2 miles!!!), and
the most destructive ever.

Most of the biggest records have all fallen in the last three years.
And the very first hurricane of this season is right up there
with the strongest of all time. It's average size mercilessly
helped spare a large population center.

Hurricane Dean had hurricane force winds out to about
60 miles most of the time. While Katrina and Wilma
in 2005 extended out about 100 miles. Making them
much more likely to hit a large population area.



Although last year was a very "boring" season with no US landfalls and at
sea activity supressed by dry air and an El Nino.

Also bear in mind that despite the ferocity of Dean the Atlantic is
experiencing slightly below normal activity for August. There has only been
one storm so far this month, with the models not predicting anything to spin
up for the next few days at least.

Cat 5 hurricanes are not unusual for the Atlantic during the active phase of
the AMO. It is the steering currents and the environmental conditions that
determine whether they will strike land and at what strength. Dean hit as a
cat 5 because firstly the SSTs were very warm along its path and the wind
shear was low and secondly it was moving quickly which meant there was less
interaction of the outer circulation with the land to weaken the storm
before the eye came ashore.

Adam

Adam Lea wrote:
"Jonathan" wrote in message
.. .
"Harley" wrote in message
. com...
Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen
all too regularly these days.

A 15 year spead, and that's all too regular?

In the last three years, we've seen the Atlantic hurricane
season break all time records for number of storms, the
lowest pressure ever, the smallest eye ever (2 miles!!!), and
the most destructive ever.

Most of the biggest records have all fallen in the last three years.
And the very first hurricane of this season is right up there
with the strongest of all time. It's average size mercilessly
helped spare a large population center.

Hurricane Dean had hurricane force winds out to about
60 miles most of the time. While Katrina and Wilma
in 2005 extended out about 100 miles. Making them
much more likely to hit a large population area.



Although last year was a very "boring" season with no US landfalls and at
sea activity supressed by dry air and an El Nino.

Also bear in mind that despite the ferocity of Dean the Atlantic is
experiencing slightly below normal activity for August. There has only been
one storm so far this month, with the models not predicting anything to spin
up for the next few days at least.

When you quit listening to Dr. William Gray and start reading scientific
papers, you will have truly entered into 21st century planetary science.

Cat 5 hurricanes are not unusual for the Atlantic during the active phase of
the AMO.

Why do you still refer to obsolete concepts?

It is the steering currents and the environmental conditions that
determine whether they will strike land and at what strength. Dean hit as a
cat 5 because firstly the SSTs were very warm along its path and the wind
shear was low and secondly it was moving quickly which meant there was less
interaction of the outer circulation with the land to weaken the storm
before the eye came ashore.

Warm SSTs? Who knew!

--
Get A Free Orbiter Space Flight Simulator :
http://orbit.medphys.ucl.ac.uk/orbit.html

"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...

"Jonathan" wrote in message
.. .

"Harley" wrote in message
. com...

Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen
all too regularly these days.


A 15 year spead, and that's all too regular?


In the last three years, we've seen the Atlantic hurricane
season break all time records for number of storms, the
lowest pressure ever, the smallest eye ever (2 miles!!!), and
the most destructive ever.

Most of the biggest records have all fallen in the last three years.
And the very first hurricane of this season is right up there
with the strongest of all time. It's average size mercilessly


I meant mercifully, that's bugged me all day.



helped spare a large population center.

Hurricane Dean had hurricane force winds out to about
60 miles most of the time. While Katrina and Wilma
in 2005 extended out about 100 miles. Making them
much more likely to hit a large population area.



Although last year was a very "boring" season with no US landfalls and at
sea activity supressed by dry air and an El Nino.

Also bear in mind that despite the ferocity of Dean the Atlantic is
experiencing slightly below normal activity for August. There has only
been
one storm so far this month, with the models not predicting anything to
spin
up for the next few days at least.


In another post I documented where the latest predictions
are that global warming should only effect the intensity
and size of hurricanes, not so much their numbers
or distribution.





Cat 5 hurricanes are not unusual


Category 5's are generally unusual. Cat 4 and 5's are
roughly 10% of the total. A US landfalling cat 5 is
one in a hundred. And the US is a big target.


Table 5. Hurricane strikes on the mainland United States
(1851-2006)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-TPC-5.pdf

Category Strikes

5 3
4 18
3 75
2 73
1 110

TOTAL 279
MAJOR 96
Major hurricanes are categories 3,4 & 5.


People down here have pretty much accepted the
idea that global warming has changed things dramatically.
First Katrina opened everyone's minds to the possibility.
But then right after Katrina came Wilma, the lowest
pressure storm of all time. Wilma drove the point home
that Katrina wasn't a fluke. Both storms were also much larger
in size than just about anyother hurricane observed
except for maybe Gilbert in 88. It was only by the grace of god
that Wilma weakened to a cat 3 just hours before landfall
or we would've had another Katrina size tragedy in Florida.

And with FEMA maxed out with Katrina, Florida would've
been on our own for weeks.

The point I'm trying to get across in that we cannot assume
any linear or predictable relationships between global warming
---ocean warming and hurricanes. A slight change in the
input of such a grand complex system can have
dramatic changes in the way the system releases
it's heat through storms...the output.


It's not a nice proportional relationship where x amount
of rise in ocean temps lead to y stronger storms.

It's analogous to cracking a whip.

A seemingly small movement at the input of a non-linear
system can produce the absolute maximum practical response
at the output.

We need to get used to the fact that category 4 or 5 storms
will become the rule rather than the exception. And they'll
be far larger in size as well increasing the chance of hitting
larger population areas. And remember one of most
chilling facts to open eyes down here....

.....Katrina and Wilma were too large to evacuation from!!!

When the eye is half the size of a state it's just not possible
to predict the path soon enough to safely evacuate. It's safer
to stay put as your more likely to evacuate into the path
or get caught on the road, the worst case of all.



for the Atlantic during the active phase of
the AMO. It is the steering currents and the environmental conditions that
determine whether they will strike land and at what strength. Dean hit as
a
cat 5 because firstly the SSTs were very warm along its path and the wind
shear was low and secondly it was moving quickly which meant there was
less
interaction of the outer circulation with the land to weaken the storm
before the eye came ashore.

Adam