STS-115 Launch Weather Forecast (Forwarded)

STS-115 Launch Weather Forecast

Vehicle: STS-115, Atlantis
Issued: 7 September 2006/1100Z (0700 EDT)
Valid: 8 September 2006 1535 - 1545Z (1135 - 1145 EDT)
Launch Weather Team: 45th Space Wing, Patrick AFB, FL

Synoptic Discussion:
Today, the Bermuda high ridge is located over South Florida, and a frontal
boundary is north along the Georgia/Florida border. West-southwest flow is
prevalent over Central Florida, and afternoon thunderstorms will develop in
Central Florida and migrate toward the east coast. The launch time Friday
occurs before thunderstorms will affect Kennedy Space Center (KSC), but
there is potential the sea breeze will develop near launch time, causing
concern for cumulus clouds within 10NM of complex 39B and isolated showers
within 20NM of the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF). Also, the west coast of
Florida will have a potential for morning thunderstorms, and anvils from
storms will advect toward the east coast of Florida.

Our primary concerns for launch are cumulus clouds within 10NM of Complex
39B and isolated showers within 20NM of the SLF, and anvils from
thunderstorms along the west coast of Florida.

For a 24-hour delay, the probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch
decreases as the front weakens and high pressure begins to build back into
the area.

Clouds Coverage Bases (feet) Tops (feet)

Cumulus 3/8 Scattered 3,000 6,000
Altostratus 2/8 Scattered 10,000 12,000
Cirrus 3/8 Scattered 25,000 26,000

Weather: None
Visibility: 7 miles
Wind: 120 deg @ 8 - 12 KT (60 foot pad winds)
Temperatu 84 F RH: 75% Dewpoint: 75 F

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 30%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 5%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds within 10NM of 39B; showers within 20NM
of the SLF, anvil clouds.

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay 20%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 5%
Primary concern(s): Low cloud ceiling.

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay N/A
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: N/A
Primary concern(s): N/A

Sunrise: 8 / 0704 EDT Sunset: 8 / 1936 EDT
9 / 0705 EDT 9 / 1935 EDT

Moonrise: 7 / 1945 EDT Moonset: 8 / 0754 EDT Illumination: 7-8 Sept. 100%
8 / 2020 EDT 9 / 0902 EDT 8-9 Sept. 97%
9 / 2054 EDT 10 / 1011 EDT 9-10 Sept. 92%

Next forecast will be issued: 8 September 2006, 0700 EDT