New Horizons Failure Probabilities

Sorry for the repeat of this from space.history, but I thought that
anyone planning to attend the AV010 launch might want to read
this document, which details what the risks are believed to be.

"http://spacescience.nasa.gov/admin/pubs/plutoeis/NH-FEIS_Vol1.pdf"

There is a 0.4% predicted chance of radiological release during
the AV-010 launch. If an accident occurs during the pre or early
launch phase, the probability that a radiological release will occur
is predicted to be 1 in 620. If the thing blows up just prior to
launch, say due to a Centaur pressurization failure ala SpaceX,
there is a *78%* chance of radiological release. If the rocket does
a"Full Stack Intact Impact", there is a 25% chance of radiological
release. These pad events would be no fun, because they would
create big post-impact fires that could cause a "partial vaporization
of PuO2" (see around page 119 for example). An event of this
type would take billions of dollars and many months, if not years,
to clean up, rendering portions of the Cape useless for space
launch use for an extended period.

The odds of a really, really bad day are very low, but they are not
zero. The Cape has seen pad explosions before. Old timers
around the Cape on launch day will be paying attention to wind
directions.

- Ed Kyle

"Ed Kyle" wrote in message
ups.com...
Sorry for the repeat of this from space.history, but I thought that
anyone planning to attend the AV010 launch might want to read
this document, which details what the risks are believed to be.

"http://spacescience.nasa.gov/admin/pubs/plutoeis/NH-FEIS_Vol1.pdf"

There is a 0.4% predicted chance of radiological release during
the AV-010 launch. If an accident occurs during the pre or early
launch phase, the probability that a radiological release will occur
is predicted to be 1 in 620. If the thing blows up just prior to
launch, say due to a Centaur pressurization failure ala SpaceX,
there is a *78%* chance of radiological release. If the rocket does
a"Full Stack Intact Impact", there is a 25% chance of radiological
release. These pad events would be no fun, because they would
create big post-impact fires that could cause a "partial vaporization
of PuO2" (see around page 119 for example). An event of this
type would take billions of dollars and many months, if not years,
to clean up, rendering portions of the Cape useless for space
launch use for an extended period.

The odds of a really, really bad day are very low, but they are not
zero. The Cape has seen pad explosions before. Old timers
around the Cape on launch day will be paying attention to wind
directions.

- Ed Kyle


Well, radiological release from something as limited as
the isotopes in the probe seem unlikely to cause as much
contamination as listed in the quote.

I must go check your source, which I have not done yet.

"Billions of dollars" sounds a bit high. Of course,
you don't get much for a billion anymore.

Mike Walsh

Re falling plutonium, it's worth reminding
folks that a pile of it crashed in Bolivia
back in 1996, FEMA got lost, and nobody
looked for it, or even warned the locals:

http://www.jamesoberg.com/plutonium.html

Michael P. Walsh ) wrote:

: "Ed Kyle" wrote in message
: ups.com...
: Sorry for the repeat of this from space.history, but I thought that
: anyone planning to attend the AV010 launch might want to read
: this document, which details what the risks are believed to be.
:
: "http://spacescience.nasa.gov/admin/pubs/plutoeis/NH-FEIS_Vol1.pdf"
:
: There is a 0.4% predicted chance of radiological release during
: the AV-010 launch. If an accident occurs during the pre or early
: launch phase, the probability that a radiological release will occur
: is predicted to be 1 in 620. If the thing blows up just prior to
: launch, say due to a Centaur pressurization failure ala SpaceX,
: there is a *78%* chance of radiological release. If the rocket does
: a"Full Stack Intact Impact", there is a 25% chance of radiological
: release. These pad events would be no fun, because they would
: create big post-impact fires that could cause a "partial vaporization
: of PuO2" (see around page 119 for example). An event of this
: type would take billions of dollars and many months, if not years,
: to clean up, rendering portions of the Cape useless for space
: launch use for an extended period.
:
: The odds of a really, really bad day are very low, but they are not
: zero. The Cape has seen pad explosions before. Old timers
: around the Cape on launch day will be paying attention to wind
: directions.
:
: - Ed Kyle
:

: Well, radiological release from something as limited as
: the isotopes in the probe seem unlikely to cause as much
: contamination as listed in the quote.

: I must go check your source, which I have not done yet.

: "Billions of dollars" sounds a bit high. Of course,
: you don't get much for a billion anymore.

: Mike Walsh

When I first read the subject line I was thinking that going to Pluto was
really risky and this was a question about the mission failing in its
objective. Here I come to find out is is the same fear about all RTGs of
which we have never had a failure. We should be so dilligent about auto
safety...

Eric