STS-114 Return To Flight L-1 Launch Mission Execution Forecast (Forwarded)

45th Weather Squadron
45th Space Wing, Patrick Air Force Base
Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida


Launch Mission Execution Forecast
Vehicle: STS-114 Return To Flight
Issued: 12 July 2005/1100Z (0700 EDT)
Valid: 13 July 2005
Launch Weather Team: (321) 853-8484

Synoptic Discussion: High pressure is building in over the Western
Atlantic. On launch day, the high pressure ridge will remain north
of KSC causing southeasterly flow over the area. Morning coastal
showers are expected, and possibly thunderstorm activity over KSC
as the sea breeze develops during the late morning/early afternoon,
but the sea breeze should migrate inland by launch time. Still,
there is a threat the storms associated with the sea breeze will
be within 20NM of the Shuttle Landing Facility at launch time,
causing a concern for Return to Launch Site (RTLS) weather.
Additionally, upper level winds from the north-northwest have
increased our concern for anvils from thunderstorms migrating into
the area; therefore, the probability of KSC weather prohibiting
launch increased to 40%.

Clouds Coverage Bases (feet) Tops (feet)
Cumulus 3/8 Scattered 3,000 5,000
Altocumulus 3/8 Scattered 8,000 9,000
Cirrus 3/8 Scattered 25,000 26,000

Weather: Thunderstorms Inland
Visibility: 7 miles
Wind: 120 deg / 10-15 KT (60 foot pad winds)
Temperatu 86 F RH: 70% Dewpoint: 75 F

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 40%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting Tanking: 5%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds, lightning, anvils, RTLS weather.

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay: 40%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting Tanking: 5%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds, lightning, anvils, RTLS weather.

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay: 40%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting Tanking: 5%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds, lightning, anvils, RTLS weather.

Sunrise: 13/0634 EDT Sunset: 13/2022 EDT
14/0635 EDT 14/2022 EDT
15/0635 EDT 15/2022 EDT

Moonrise: 13/1244 EDT Moonset: 14/0041 EST Illumination: 13 July 44%
14/1340 EDT 15/0111 EDT 14 July 54%
15/1439 EDT 16/0145 EDT 15 July 64%

Next forecast will be issued: As Required