Launch costs to soar

From: Andrew Yee
Newsgroups: sci.space.news

Teal Group Corporation
January 19, 2007

Teal Group Assesses Satellite Market Impact of China ASAT Test

FAIRFAX, Va. -- In response to China's anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon test
last week, Teal Group Corp. today issued a Market Impact Brief providing a
perspective of the mission from the standpoint of the world satellite
market.

The Brief minimizes the significance of the political and military
implications of the destruction of the in-orbit Feng Yun 1C satellite by a
Chinese medium-range missile, and instead highlights the impact that ASAT
weapons will have on the existing orbital debris problem.

"The point is that live ASAT weapons testing in space -- be it at a low
earth orbit (LEO), a medium earth orbit (MEO), or a geostationary earth
orbit (GEO) -- has a potential to damage or destroy a lot more than merely
the intended target," says Marco Caceres, lead analyst for Teal Group's
World Space Systems Briefing, the 1,450-page, monthly-updated competitive
intelligence service under which the Market Impact Brief is released. For
more information on the service, contact a sales representative at the
Teal
Group website, http://www.tealgroup.com, or call 703-573-5374, or fax
703-691-9591. "The event likely added hundreds of trackable debris objects
and tens of thousands of small particles to the growing problem," he said.

The Briefing stresses the fact that these types of military activities in
space can have a significant and immediate impact on the commercial
satellite market. In the 1980s when the US conducted its last ASAT weapon
test, there were far fewer commercial satellites than there are today,
especially in LEO. Teal Group estimates that there are about 175-200 LEO
commercial satellites currently in operation, in addition to other types
of
satellites and the International Space Station (ISS). The operational
hardware in LEO represents a public/private investment of about $120
billion.

According to Caceres, "The overall satellite market is in the midst of a
resurgence following a down cycle of roughly 5-6 years." He continues, "An
ASAT weapons race will have the effect of increasing the financial risk of
any satellite program, and this will undoubtedly be felt most within the
commercial market through decreased investor confidence and/or high
insurance rates."

Teal Group is a defense and aerospace market analysis firm based in
Fairfax,
Virginia, USA. It provides competitive intelligence to industry and
government worldwide.

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