Planet protection is the best way to develop space technology.

While I applaud Bush for aiming for a moonbase and a
manned mission to Mars; I think there is a far better
way to develop our space technology, and at the same time
guarantee that we will still be here as a civilisation in 100 years,
so that we can settle, and exploit the resources within our fantastic
solar system.

We should set up a moonbase for the initial purpose of developing
new propulsion systems, so that our first task is to build a fleet
of 2 or 3 planetary protection craft. Primarily they could be developed
to figure out how we would deal with the possible threat of an extinction
bollide, such as a comet. A large one will come our way sooner or later;
this is a fact, and if we get caught out going to Mars, before we secure
our own future civilisation, then we are asking to be doomed. How ironic
would it be that while we are all enjoying the pictures of men on Mars,
we get hit by a 10 mile wide comet.

Mankind, has come all this way because we have developed the
technology, and tools to combat the more destructive forces of
nature. We build houses, heating to stay warm. We build farms to
increase food production. We develop new medicines to live longer etc..
Put simply, if we get caught out, there will be no more human race, no
more progress, and forget space exploration completely.

My view is that by concentrating on our future survivability, we can grow
safely into a spacefaring intelligent species.

To do this, we need to know that we can deflect/defeat an incoming comet,
even with only a few months notice. At the moment with our current state of
readiness, we would be ****ed.

So my plan would be to use the moon to develop our new spacecraft, which
could be used to practice on asteroids and comets we already know about.
This
way we would be killing two birds with one stone; develop the sophisticated
propulsion to get us to comets quickly, and at the same time make a manned
Mars expedition far more possible.

The other good thing about a planetary protection priority is that it could
be
funded not just by American taxpayers, but by all western or developed
governments, because until a comet trajectory is known, no-one can be sure
where it would crash on Earth. This could be a really worthwhile
international
space endeavour for the whole worlds benefit, and at the same time, develop
future mission capabilities to Mars and other planets in the solar system.

I just have this awful feeling that while our eyes are on the incredible
horizons
of future space settlement, we are forgetting that our future is not yet
guaranteed.
Hardcore environmentalists go on about how we dont take enough good care
of Earth as it is, but even the most pessimistic forecasts about global
warming
make it a longterm worry. A large enough comet will just wipe us out
practically
overnight.

I'm not trying to scare monger, I just think it makes sense.

On Mon, 26 Jan 2004 12:06:47 +0000 (UTC), "Dolores Claman"
wrote:

We should set up a moonbase for the initial purpose of developing
new propulsion systems,

They don't need a moon base to do that, when already they are working
on a nuclear power generator and a new large size xeon ion engines in
order to move probes about quickly.

Finding extra-solar life bearing planets could well speed engine
development on a whole load more.

Engines depend on being needed for a purpose, where short trips to the
moon is not one of them.

so that our first task is to build a fleet
of 2 or 3 planetary protection craft.

This sounds like a short lived idea.

Primarily they could be developed
to figure out how we would deal with the possible threat of an extinction
bollide, such as a comet.

They already know that, when it is all a matter of hitting your
artificial ram into the side of it early enough. A small nudge off
course would sending it millions of miles out of our way.

The best way of being able to do this I guess is to launch from the
moon, when you can move a lot more mass a lot more easily.

Send the craft up from Earth first I guess, load up with fuel and
multiple tons of metal in lunar orbit, then off it goes for comet
intercept.

Also I should point out the doomsday objects from space usually
consist of large metal asteroids than soft dirty snowballs like
comets.

A large one will come our way sooner or later; this is a fact,

It is, but given the odds, then these doomsday ones come only every
few billion years.

Still, you will only have a few million years to wait, when one of our
solar neighbours will pass through our oort cloud sending millions of
asteroids and comets all over the place and more than a few straight
towards us.

Interestingly enough, such stars passing through our oort cloud can be
linked to mass extinctions here on the Earth.

and if we get caught out going to Mars, before we secure
our own future civilisation, then we are asking to be doomed.

I hate to tell you this, but even asteroids are not that high on the
worst things that could happen in this violent universe.

There are such things as wondering black holes, where if one wondered
into our solar system, then it would pass right through dragging our
Sun along behind it.

You won't have to worry about Earth getting swallowed by a black hole
though, when we would all be dead long before it even passed out of
our oort cloud.

Best of all is that since these things are black and not usually
feeding, then you will never see it before it is much too late.

Also I bet you did not know that our galaxy is currently being smacked
into by two other smaller galaxies, where all these other stars (not
to forget the wondering black holes) are all doing kamikaze runs
straight through our galaxy.

Now although having two stars collide is unlikely, but there is always
that possibility, where even our sun could be the one. That would
certainly be a very impressive sight, not that you would live for
long.

Still, even that is better than our galaxy running into what they call
a radio galaxy, which is basically a whole galaxy that has been eaten
up by a super massive black hole.

There is also the possibility of a Supernova, which would cause
devastation to other star systems in more than a few light years. And
guess what, when we have a candidate not so far from us all ready to
pop.

Then there is the unlikely possibility that the massive black hole at
the center of our galaxy could start on a new feeding frenzy, which
would cast huge jets or very hot matter traveling at near light speed
out into our galaxy all the way to the edge.

Any solar system getting in the way of this stream would not stand a
chance.

There is also the unlikely possibility that a star could pass a little
too close to us, stripping our planet from the habitable zone of our
star.

Then if it gets even closer, then it could cause our Sun to take a
unexpected trip through the center of our galaxy, which is a very
hostile place for people living on habitable worlds.

There is also the possibility that these scientists studying the early
universe in their super colliders could get a little too good at it
and create their own mini big bang taking out a few light years or
more.

Well there all the doomsday situations that I can think off, but don't
have too many nightmares, when the odds of any of these happening in
your lifetime is close to zero.

How ironic would it be that while we are all enjoying the pictures of
men on Mars, we get hit by a 10 mile wide comet.

And I could fart and blow up the planet as well. :-]

Only thing is that the odds say that both of these events are
extremely unlikely, which is why you should not worry too much about
them.

Mankind, has come all this way because we have developed the
technology, and tools to combat the more destructive forces of
nature.

Really?

Seems more to me that humankind is stuck on a ball of rock awaiting
for fate to roll the dice to see what one of those nasty events to
send in our direction.

And the really cool thing is that we can do completely nothing and
just have to sit back and await for the big ending.

We build houses, heating to stay warm. We build farms to
increase food production. We develop new medicines to live longer etc..

And biological warfare so that we can all die in some accidental
outbreak. Ok, so that is unlikely, when countries will close borders
if it gets serious.

Put simply, if we get caught out, there will be no more human race, no
more progress, and forget space exploration completely.

All that due to a little snowball? Well I can envision much greater
disasters to your one.

And I hate to tell you this, but even a good sized asteroid hitting
the Earth is not going to kill us all. After all humans and their
ancestors have already been around for millions of years with dozens
of asteroids and comets hitting us all through this.

My view is that by concentrating on our future survivability, we can grow
safely into a spacefaring intelligent species.

And still be wiped out by any wondering black hole? Face the fact that
there will always be something out there that can get us.

Asteroids are not too much of a concern, when the big one only comes
around every few billion years. Sure we should keep an eye out for an
early arrival, where we can even do something about them, but it is
pointless putting defense craft in orbit for something that the odds
says won't be coming any time soon.

To do this, we need to know that we can deflect/defeat an incoming comet,

Sure we can, all pure mathematic and orbital mechanics.

even with only a few months notice.

It is more likely that either we will have many if not hundreds of
years of advanced notice, or that it would have hit us even before we
knew that it was there.

You have been watching too many movie.

At the moment with our current state of
readiness, we would be ****ed.

Hey we're f'd anyway, when it is just hanging about for that f'ing one
event that f'ing f***s us over!

The key to life in such a situation is to go on with live as usual and
hope that extinction does not occur anytime soon. Still, when humans
manage to colonized another star system, then we would have beaten the
odds.

So my plan would be to use the moon to develop our new spacecraft, which
could be used to practice on asteroids and comets we already know about.

You do not even need a space craft if you can get your mass driver or
catapult working. Other people have suggested simply putting an
asteroid in its path, which should certainly work.

This
way we would be killing two birds with one stone; develop the sophisticated
propulsion to get us to comets quickly,

We do not need to get there quickly. As I said it is very likely that
either we will have tons of advanced notice or none at all.

and at the same time make a manned
Mars expedition far more possible.

With a simple existing space probe design to carry around some mass?

Just stick a SRB on it to get up some speed, then some simple
thrusters can do minor course adjustments.

The other good thing about a planetary protection priority is that it could
be
funded not just by American taxpayers, but by all western or developed
governments,

Oh? Good luck asking them for funding for multi-billion dollar craft
that are unlikely to be ever used in our whole lifetime.

because until a comet trajectory is known, no-one can be sure
where it would crash on Earth.

And every government will think that it is unlikely to be us, where
they would be right. After all this planet is 2/3rd water, which means
that it is more likely to hit an ocean.

This could be a really worthwhile
international
space endeavour for the whole worlds benefit,

A pure waste of money in my books. Such finding would be better spent
on having more telescopes looking for asteroids and comets in the
first place, which will give us the years of notice needed to schedule
it in as one of NASA's many projects.

and at the same time, develop
future mission capabilities to Mars and other planets in the solar system.

By moving a few tons of mass? In fact have you any idea of what these
defense craft of yours with an advanced propulsion system have to do?

I just have this awful feeling that while our eyes are on the incredible
horizons of future space settlement, we are forgetting that our future is
not yet guaranteed.

Face the fact that we all have to die sometime, but it won't be today,
or tomorrow, or next week, or next year. I know this because a little
voice called random odds told me so.

Hardcore environmentalists go on about how we dont take enough good care
of Earth as it is, but even the most pessimistic forecasts about global
warming make it a longterm worry.

A large enough comet will just wipe us out practically overnight.

Except that comets are generally soft and squishy, where they would
break up in the atmosphere and worst cause a tidal wave.

It is those real large metal asteroids that are the ones that you have
to keep an eye on, when they are tough enough to usually survive the
trip through the atmosphere and go smack right into the ground or the
ocean floor.

I'm not trying to scare monger, I just think it makes sense.

Not really, where I can scare better than you.

Cardman
http://www.cardman.com
http://www.cardman.co.uk

I see someone caught the repeat of Deep Impact on CBS last night.

On Mon, 26 Jan 2004, Cardman wrote:
On Mon, 26 Jan 2004 12:06:47 +0000 (UTC), "Dolores Claman"

This sounds like a short lived idea.

Primarily they could be developed
to figure out how we would deal with the possible threat of an extinction
bollide, such as a comet.

They already know that, when it is all a matter of hitting your
artificial ram into the side of it early enough. A small nudge off
course would sending it millions of miles out of our way.

Do note that some near earth asteroids are binary and others are just a
pile of rubble. So think twice about ramming it.

The Yarkovsky effect has been know for changing orbits of asteroids.
By changing the albedo of an 'roid, this effect can be used to
direct a 'roid away from Earth. Ample warning time must be had for
this method to work.

Other near Earth 'roids have appeared so quickly that even a slammer would
be slow and some have be noticed only after closest passage.

As for worry about extinction of humans, no worry be there from space,
the corporate tyranny has assured they'll do it to us this century.

Dolores Claman wrote:

We should set up a moonbase for the initial purpose of developing
new propulsion systems, so that our first task is to build a fleet
of 2 or 3 planetary protection craft. Primarily they could be developed
to figure out how we would deal with the possible threat of an extinction
bollide,

You want to maintain three rockets on the moon for planetary protection?

Do you realize that even the NEO search efforts are underfunded? And the
budgets of NEAT and LINEAR are microscopic compared to the expensive
project you advocate.

--
Hop David
http://clowder.net/hop/index.html

"Hop David" wrote ...

You want to maintain three rockets on the moon for planetary protection?

Do you realize that even the NEO search efforts are underfunded? And the
budgets of NEAT and LINEAR are microscopic compared to the expensive
project you advocate.

Actually that brings an interesting point to mind.

There must be a fair bit of data now on objects that were tracked at one point
as 'near miss' and later had their path uncertainty reduced to be out of the
danger zone.

Logically speaking I'd expect there should be a higher chance of a NEO being
_confirmed_ as a 'earth collision risk' and then missing than there is of a NEO
being confirmed as a risk and then hitting. (Simply because people aren't going
to say "Well this only has a 10% chance of hitting in 2010 - I can live with those
odds.")

Given 6 years notice it's doubtful much could be done about /that/ one - but
if one is predicted to come that close I think there will be a very good chance
that we will be ready for the one _after_ it.