What odds on the first person to walk on Mars and when

I guess the odds have changed slightly now.

My new odds would be

Nationality of first person on Mars :-

USA 25%
Chinese 23%
Russian 22%
European probably German 18%
Indian 8%
Other 9%

And the year :-

Before 2010 1%
2010 to 2015 5%
2015 to 2020 20%
2020 to 2025 25%
2025 or later 40%
Never 9%

I do not think Bush will make much difference with his speech but it might
make a trigger for another leader to follow.

In article , Steve wrote:

I guess the odds have changed slightly now.

My new odds would be

Nationality of first person on Mars :-

USA 25%
Chinese 23%
Russian 22%
European probably German 18%
Indian 8%
Other 9%

And the year :-

Before 2010 1%
2010 to 2015 5%
2015 to 2020 20%
2020 to 2025 25%
2025 or later 40%
Never 9%

I do not think Bush will make much difference with his speech but it might
make a trigger for another leader to follow.


I've heard that bookies in England are giving 50:1 that the U.S. will
NOT walk on Mars before 2030.

If your 9% hunch comes true, then our species will have been a waste of
time.

z

"Steve" xxx wrote in :

Nation to launch first Mars mission:

USA 15%
Chinese 15%
Joint Russian & European
project 10%
Indian 5%
Other human 1%
Future evolutionary
developments[1] 55%

And the year :-

Before 2010 0%
2010 to 2015 1%
2015 to 2020 5%
2020 to 2025 10%
2025 or later 35%
Never 50%

[1] Evolutionary descendents of cockroaches, AI life, etc, for whom
nationality is not an answerable question at this time.

--
Coridon Henshaw - http://www3.telus.net/csbh - "I have sadly come to the
conclusion that the Bush administration will go to any lengths to deny
reality." -- Charley Reese

Coridon Henshaw (chenshawREMOVE@(T H+ESE)sympatico.ca) wrote:
"Steve" xxx wrote in :

Nation to launch first Mars mission:

USA 15%
Chinese 15%
Joint Russian & European
project 10%

I think these two are backwards.

--
Sander

+++ Out of cheese error +++

Sander Vesik wrote in news:1074469294.319889
@haldjas.folklore.ee:

Coridon Henshaw (chenshawREMOVE@(T H+ESE)sympatico.ca) wrote:
"Steve" xxx wrote in :

Nation to launch first Mars mission:

Chinese 15%
Joint Russian & European
project 10%

I think these two are backwards.

What is your rationale? While the Chinese currently lag the Russians and
Europeans in spaceflight experience the Chinese are far better organized
(at a national level) than the EU mess and have a stronger tendency to get
major prestige projects completed once they are initiated.

--
Coridon Henshaw - http://www3.telus.net/csbh - "I have sadly come to the
conclusion that the Bush administration will go to any lengths to deny
reality." -- Charley Reese