Space elevator will be built around 2015

Dr. O wrote:

My guess is that it will be completed in the 2020-2025 timeframe.

My guess is that it won't be done within the next 100 years. Today,
we're very far from possessing the necessary technology.

This will completely change our perceptions of access to space.

Of course, once it's built.

Thousands, if not millions will travel into space.

Why? Where should they be going? To GEO? Wow. Remember (even if you
build the darned thing), travelling at 65 mph, it's going to take two
weeks to get there!

Rockets will be quickly viewed as unsafe and cost-ineffective.

Of course, once it's built.

How about a simple space vehicle which will make pleasure trip orbits
around the Earth? This should be doable if it were docked at the
Elevator and within financial reach for many millions of people, is
my guess. I'm also foreseeing many nations putting up their own Space
Elevators, such as the EU, China and Japan. Even flyby trips to the
moon would be imaginable, although these would be a lot more
expensive since such a journey would take about a week. You would
need quite a large ship to hold all these paying passengers. A space
hotel will almost certainly constructed if a Space Elevator were to
become a reality.

Hmmm...

I think you're forgetting, that the cost of building this thing would be
astronomical. Who should pay? Who would invest? Given the current
political climate? The U.S.? Never. The risk of failure would be too
high. Besides, anti-elevator lobbying from Boing and Lockheed Martin
would be massive. Once the elevator is there, noone will buy expendable
rockets. Which means thousands and thousands of taxpayers (and voters)
currently employed within the space industry losing their jobs.

I'd love to see it happen in my lifetime. But I won't believe it, 'till
I see it.

--
Steen Eiler Jørgensen
"No, I don't think I'll ever get over Macho Grande.
Those wounds run...pretty deep."

"Steen Eiler Jørgensen" wrote in message
...
Dr. O wrote:

My guess is that it will be completed in the 2020-2025 timeframe.

My guess is that it won't be done within the next 100 years. Today,
we're very far from possessing the necessary technology.

Did you read the article at all? The bottom line is: we're not very far away
from attaining the necessary technology. And they're giving a feasible
timeline.


This will completely change our perceptions of access to space.

Of course, once it's built.

Thousands, if not millions will travel into space.

Why? Where should they be going? To GEO? Wow. Remember (even if you
build the darned thing), travelling at 65 mph, it's going to take two
weeks to get there!

There will probably be multiple stops along the way. To say, 400km, will
only take a couple of hours, probably less as the thing will undoubtedly
travel faster than 65mph. For most human activity, GEO isn't very
interesting at all. Most of it will be in LEO. But space mining may even
become feasible with such low-cost access to space.


Rockets will be quickly viewed as unsafe and cost-ineffective.

Of course, once it's built.

How about a simple space vehicle which will make pleasure trip orbits
around the Earth? This should be doable if it were docked at the
Elevator and within financial reach for many millions of people, is
my guess. I'm also foreseeing many nations putting up their own Space
Elevators, such as the EU, China and Japan. Even flyby trips to the
moon would be imaginable, although these would be a lot more
expensive since such a journey would take about a week. You would
need quite a large ship to hold all these paying passengers. A space
hotel will almost certainly constructed if a Space Elevator were to
become a reality.

Hmmm...

I think you're forgetting, that the cost of building this thing would be
astronomical. Who should pay? Who would invest? Given the current
political climate? The U.S.? Never. The risk of failure would be too
high. Besides, anti-elevator lobbying from Boing and Lockheed Martin
would be massive. Once the elevator is there, noone will buy expendable
rockets. Which means thousands and thousands of taxpayers (and voters)
currently employed within the space industry losing their jobs.


The cost won't be that great. The estimates given are $6billion. Even if
it's $100billion, it's still a bargain if you consider it will open up a
whole new range of economic activities. Besides, the initial Space Elevator
will probably be an international project, just like ISS. Future Elevators
may be national in nature.

On Fri, 19 Sep 2003 14:18:16 +0200, in a place far, far away, Steen
Eiler Jørgensen made the phosphor on my
monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that:

Thousands, if not millions will travel into space.

Why? Where should they be going? To GEO? Wow. Remember (even if you
build the darned thing), travelling at 65 mph, it's going to take two
weeks to get there!

Why would one only travel 65 mph? Where in the world did you come up
with such a ridiculous number?

--
simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole)
interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

"Extraordinary launch vehicles require extraordinary markets..."
Swap the first . and @ and throw out the ".trash" to email me.
Here's my email address for autospammers:

"Ian Stirling" wrote in message
...
Dr. O dr.o@xxxxx wrote:

"Steen Eiler J?rgensen" wrote in message
...
Dr. O wrote:

My guess is that it will be completed in the 2020-2025 timeframe.

My guess is that it won't be done within the next 100 years. Today,
we're very far from possessing the necessary technology.

Did you read the article at all? The bottom line is: we're not very far
away
from attaining the necessary technology. And they're giving a feasible
timeline.


This will completely change our perceptions of access to space.

Of course, once it's built.

Thousands, if not millions will travel into space.

Why? Where should they be going? To GEO? Wow. Remember (even if you
build the darned thing), travelling at 65 mph, it's going to take two
weeks to get there!

There will probably be multiple stops along the way. To say, 400km, will
only take a couple of hours, probably less as the thing will undoubtedly
travel faster than 65mph. For most human activity, GEO isn't very
interesting at all. Most of it will be in LEO. But space mining may even
become feasible with such low-cost access to space.


Low cost access to space isn't low cost access to LEO.
You can't jump off an elevator at 400Km, and be in orbit.
(well, you can, but it'll be a short orbit)
In order to clear the earth, you need to jump off at around half-way up
(rough BOTE).


Halfway to GEO? That's 15.000km upwards! Why do you need to go up that far?
You can just use a rocket to push you into LEO, you're already going
15.000km/hr (motion of the Earth) so you'll need another 15.000km/hr.

In article ,
Dr. O dr.o@xxxxx wrote:
In order to clear the earth, you need to jump off at around half-way up
(rough BOTE).

Halfway to GEO? That's 15.000km upwards! Why do you need to go up that far?

Because until you're at least a few thousand kilometers up (it's not quite
as bad as the BOTE numbers suggest), if you jump off, the orbit you're in
intersects the atmosphere.

(And until you're considerably higher up, it intersects the inner Van Allen
belt, making it an unhealthy choice.)

You can just use a rocket to push you into LEO, you're already going
15.000km/hr (motion of the Earth)...

Uh, no, Earth's equatorial motion is only about 1600km/hr. The elevator
gets you clear of the atmosphere, which is nice, but otherwise it isn't a
lot of help for getting into LEO.

Mind you, an operational space elevator makes LEO a somewhat less
interesting place -- in particular, it's no longer the logical place for
an assembly/operations base for things going farther out.
--
MOST launched 1015 EDT 30 June, separated 1046, | Henry Spencer
first ground-station pass 1651, all nominal! |

I think you're forgetting, that the cost of building this thing would
be...astronomical

Bad puns make me go....ballistic.

On Fri, 19 Sep 2003 17:48:11 GMT, in a place far, far away,
(Henry Spencer) made the phosphor on my monitor
glow in such a way as to indicate that:

Mind you, an operational space elevator makes LEO a somewhat less
interesting place -- in particular, it's no longer the logical place for
an assembly/operations base for things going farther out.

But it's still a great location for earth observation, surveillance
and tourist hotels, which exacerbates the potential collision issue.

--
simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole)
interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

"Extraordinary launch vehicles require extraordinary markets..."
Swap the first . and @ and throw out the ".trash" to email me.
Here's my email address for autospammers:

JRS: In article , seen in
news:sci.space.policy, Ian Stirling posted at
Fri, 19 Sep 2003 14:29:25 :-

Low cost access to space isn't low cost access to LEO.
You can't jump off an elevator at 400Km, and be in orbit.
(well, you can, but it'll be a short orbit)
In order to clear the earth, you need to jump off at around half-way up
(rough BOTE).

Were you not here a couple of years ago?

URL:http://www.merlyn.demon.co.uk/gravity2.htm#Fall - for GSO radius
26300 miles, atmosphere top radius 4100 miles, answer is that, to miss
the atmosphere, one must fall from above 18700 miles radius.

18700 - 4000 (sic) : 26300 - 4000 = 13700 : 22300 :: ~ 61.5% up.

--
© John Stockton, Surrey, UK. Turnpike v4.00 MIME. ©
Web URL:http://www.merlyn.demon.co.uk/ - FAQqish topics, acronyms & links;
some Astro stuff via astro.htm, gravity0.htm; quotes.htm; pascal.htm; &c, &c.
No Encoding. Quotes before replies. Snip well. Write clearly. Don't Mail News.

Rand Simberg wrote:

On Fri, 19 Sep 2003 14:18:16 +0200, in a place far, far away, Steen
Eiler Jørgensen made the phosphor on my
monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that:



Thousands, if not millions will travel into space.


Why? Where should they be going? To GEO? Wow. Remember (even if you
build the darned thing), travelling at 65 mph, it's going to take two
weeks to get there!



Why would one only travel 65 mph? Where in the world did you come up
with such a ridiculous number?


The speed up the elevator will probably be dictated by issues related to
wear of the cable.
Until we know how to build the cable it is difficult to know how fast we
will be able to go
up without damaging the cable. I hope (and think that it is likely) that
we will find a way
of building a cable capable of higher transit speeds but that is not
obvious.

Do you have information indicating that it is possible to build an
elevator which wouldn't
wear down too fast with high transit speeds?

Alain Fournier

Dr John Stockton wrote:
JRS: In article , seen in
news:sci.space.policy, Ian Stirling posted at
Fri, 19 Sep 2003 14:29:25 :-

Low cost access to space isn't low cost access to LEO.
You can't jump off an elevator at 400Km, and be in orbit.
(well, you can, but it'll be a short orbit)
In order to clear the earth, you need to jump off at around half-way up
(rough BOTE).

Were you not here a couple of years ago?

Yes, however I may not have been reading every thread.

URL:http://www.merlyn.demon.co.uk/gravity2.htm#Fall - for GSO radius
26300 miles, atmosphere top radius 4100 miles, answer is that, to miss
the atmosphere, one must fall from above 18700 miles radius.


18700 - 4000 (sic) : 26300 - 4000 = 13700 : 22300 :: ~ 61.5% up.
"around half-way up".

For an orbit that will aerobrake down into LEO, you'r probably looking
at a perigee of around 100Km, or around 80 miles lower, and that'll knock
a percent or few off.

--
http://inquisitor.i.am/ | | Ian Stirling.
---------------------------+-------------------------+--------------------------
He had been eight years upon a project for extracting sunbeams out of cucumbers,
which were to be put in vials hermetically sealed, and let out to warm the air
in raw inclement summers. -- Jonathan Swift, "Gulliver's Travels" (1726)