STS-115 Launch Weather Forecast (Forwarded)

STS-115 Launch Weather Forecast

Vehicle: STS-115, Atlantis
Issued: 6 September 2006/1130Z (0730 EDT)
Valid: 7 September 2006 1558 - 1610Z (1158 - 1210 EDT)
Launch Weather Team: 45th Space Wing, Patrick AFB, FL

Synoptic Discussion:
Today, the Bermuda high ridge is located over South Florida, and a frontal
boundary is moving into the panhandle of Florida. West-southwest flow is
prevalent over Central Florida, and afternoon thunderstorm will develop in
Central Florida and migrate toward the east coast. This pattern continues
through the next 2 days. Fortunately, the launch time Thursday occurs before
thunderstorms will affect Kennedy Space Center (KSC). There is potential the
sea breeze will develop near launch time, causing concern for cumulus clouds
within 10NM of complex 39B and isolated showers within 20NM of the Shuttle
Landing Facility. Also, the west coast of Florida will have a potential for
morning thunderstorms, and anvils from storms will advect toward the east
coast of Florida.

Our primary concerns for launch are cumulus clouds within 10NM of Complex
39B and isolated showers within 20NM of the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF),
and anvils from thunderstorms along the west coast of Florida.

The weather forecast is similar for a 24-hour delay, and for the 48-hour
delay, the probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch decreases as the
front weakens and high pressure begins to build back into the area.

Clouds Coverage Bases (feet) Tops (feet)
Cumulus 3/8 Scattered 3,000 6,000
Altostratus 2/8 Scattered 10,000 12,000
Cirrus 4/8 Scattered 25,000 26,000

Weather: None
Visibility: 7 miles
Wind: 120 deg @ 8 - 12 KT (60 foot pad winds)
Temperatu 85 F RH: 70% Dewpoint: 74 F

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 30%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds within 10NM of 39B; showers within 20NM
of the SLF, anvil clouds.

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay 30%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds within 10NM of 39B; showers within 20NM
of the SLF, anvil clouds.

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay 20%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Low cloud ceiling.

Sunrise: 7 / 0704 EDT Sunset: 7 / 1937 EDT
8 / 0704 EDT 8 / 1936 EDT
9 / 0705 EDT 9 / 1935 EDT

Moonrise: 6 / 1909 EDT Moonset: 7 / 0644 EDT Illumination: 6-7 Sept. 99%
7 / 1945 EDT 8 / 0754 EDT 7-8 Sept. 100%
8 / 2020 EDT 9 / 0902 EDT 8-9 Sept. 97%

Next forecast will be issued: 7 September 2006, 0700 EDT