Malthusian Theory and Travel Beyond Earth Orbit

John Maxson wrote
in message ...

Does a newer space ship offer us a timely chance to beat the
Malthusian outcome (i.e.., will it help us find natural resources
on another celestial body and also lead to colonization)?

Have there been any recent advances such as this in the area of
heavy-lift technology?

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=12209

--
John Thomas Maxson, Retired Engineer (Aerospace)
Author, The Betrayal of Mission 51-L (www.mission51l.com)

John Maxson wrote:

John Maxson wrote
in message ...

Does a newer space ship offer us a timely chance to beat the
Malthusian outcome (i.e.., will it help us find natural resources
on another celestial body and also lead to colonization)?

Have there been any recent advances such as this in the area of
heavy-lift technology?

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=12209

We know how to build heavy-lift ELVs, and have a good idea of what
should go into a leavy-lift RLV. But currently, there's no
mission/market for either.

We need a small RLV first. We know how to make hydrogen or
hydrocarbon rocket engines for those (With per-flight operation times
nowhere near that of the Deep Space 1 engine [cool though that is], but
operation and maintenance similar to that done on jet engines is
entirely podssible. The DC-X experience has shown us that. And with a
modified, de-rated engine [RL-10] not even *meant* to be re-usable, but
robust enough to act as one in that program.).

No new physics are needed, just new engineering, and not a whole lot
of that.

Some things aren't done because they're impossible under known
physics.

Some aren't done because they're possible, but require engineering
that's well out of reach.

Some aren't done because those who can, believe one of the first two
assertions, and/or have a stake in the status quo, and don't try.

And some things aren't done because those who believe it's
attainable, don't have the resources to really try....

But that's changing.

John Maxson wrote:

Joann Evans wrote in message
...

No new physics are needed, just new engineering, and not
a whole lot of that.

Okay, given existing heavy-lift knowledge, what's an estimate of
the cost and time required to put the new engineering in place to
launch 100 men and women into orbit with one vehicle?

Here are some places to start:

http://www.astronautix.com/lvfam/vtovl.htm

http://www.friends-partners.ru/partn...vfam/vtovl.htm

http://www.friends-partners.org/part...vfam/vtovl.htm

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/fireba...e/171?source=1

http://www.abo.fi/~mlindroo/SpaceLVs/Slides/


Note that these designs were first proposed in the late 1960's,
without benefit of composite materials, and other advances since then.
There's no current government mission (at that time, it was believed
there would be) or commercial requirement for this lifting capability,
but plenty of thought has been put into them (and seemingly forgotten by
many), and we should be able to do this, when there's more experience
with smaller RLVs, and the need presents itself....

But what you plan to do with the passengers once in LEO, I'm still
not sure. I can only say that it's doable.

Joann Evans wrote in message
...

Note that these designs were first proposed in the late 1960's,
without benefit of composite materials, and other advances since then.
There's no current government mission (at that time, it was believed
there would be) or commercial requirement for this lifting capability,
but plenty of thought has been put into them (and seemingly forgotten
by many), and we should be able to do this, when there's more
experience with smaller RLVs, and the need presents itself....

Okay, thanks a lot for the review with those links. I'm not current
with that sort of thing, and I didn't realize so much was on the web.
I can't get my mind around how expensive it would be though, nor
can I predict how long it might take given the go. Can someone?

But what you plan to do with the passengers once in LEO, I'm
still not sure.

I find the ion-engine work at JPL and Bill Clark's work encouraging.
If we can get enough people up, maybe we can get some of them out.

I can only say that it's doable.

Thanks again. I'm guardedly optimistic. My experience with such
things is mostly practical. If we know there's a place in space worth
exploring, and if we have the capability to get there, it does seem
that it would be a real shame not to try after coming this far so fast.

--
John Thomas Maxson, Retired Engineer (Aerospace)
Author, The Betrayal of Mission 51-L (www.mission51l.com)