Proton (Briz) Failure

An ILS Proton M/Briz M failed to put Arabsat 4A into a
planned geosynchronous transfer orbit after launch from
Baikonur Area 200 Pad 39 on February 28. The Briz M
stage suffered some sort of failure during one of its
planned four burns, stranding Arabsat 4A in a useless
orbit.

This was the first Proton M/Briz M failure in 11 flights.
It was also the first failure of a Krunichev Briz stage in
25 flights atop Proton M, Proton K, and Rokot launchers.
It was the third failed International Launch Services
Proton mission in 36 attempts since 1996 (the other
failures involved Energia Blok DM upper stages).

- Ed Kyle

Ed Kyle wrote:
An ILS Proton M/Briz M failed to put Arabsat 4A into a
planned geosynchronous transfer orbit after launch from
Baikonur Area 200 Pad 39 on February 28. The Briz M
stage suffered some sort of failure during one of its
planned four burns, stranding Arabsat 4A in a useless
orbit.

This was the first Proton M/Briz M failure in 11 flights.
It was also the first failure of a Krunichev Briz stage in
25 flights atop Proton M, Proton K, and Rokot launchers.
It was the third failed International Launch Services
Proton mission in 36 attempts since 1996 (the other
failures involved Energia Blok DM upper stages).

- Ed Kyle

With this failure, Proton M loses its place at the top of
the reliability list for 4-6-tonne class commercial GTO
launchers. Note that CZ-3 and H-IIA aren't working as
"mainstream" commercial GTO launchers right now.

Vehicle Launches Realzd Pred Consc.
(Failures) Rate Rate* Succes

Atlas 5 7(0) 1.00 .89 7
CZ-3A/B 15(1) .93 .88 12
Zenit 3SL/DMSL 19(2) .89 .86 5
Proton-M/Briz-M 11(1) .91 .85 0
Ariane 5G(+,S) 22(3) .86 .83 12
H-IIA 9(1) .89 .82 3
Ariane 5-ECA 3(1) .67 .60 2

* First level Bayesian estimate of mean predicted
probability of success for next launch attempt
(k+1)/(n+2) where k is the number of successful
events and n is the number of trials.

"Ed Kyle" wrote:

An ILS Proton M/Briz M failed to put Arabsat 4A into a
planned geosynchronous transfer orbit after launch from
Baikonur Area 200 Pad 39 on February 28. The Briz M
stage suffered some sort of failure during one of its
planned four burns, stranding Arabsat 4A in a useless
orbit.

All singing - all dancing.

(And in the week since the original post - there have been no replies
to Ed's post, and no further discussion... Proof positive of the bias
I've been noting for years.)

D.
--
Touch-twice life. Eat. Drink. Laugh.

-Resolved: To be more temperate in my postings.
Oct 5th, 2004 JDL

In article ,
Derek Lyons wrote:
(And in the week since the original post - there have been no replies
to Ed's post, and no further discussion... Proof positive of the bias
I've been noting for years.)

You were expecting a raging debate about whether the upper stage's name
is spelled Briz or Breeze, perhaps?
--
spsystems.net is temporarily off the air; | Henry Spencer
mail to henry at zoo.utoronto.ca instead. |

(Henry Spencer) wrote in :

In article ,
Derek Lyons wrote:
(And in the week since the original post - there have been no replies
to Ed's post, and no further discussion... Proof positive of the bias
I've been noting for years.)

You were expecting a raging debate about whether the upper stage's name
is spelled Briz or Breeze, perhaps?

Well, I should have noted grumpily that if it'd been an American launcher,
the group would have been up in arms about how American industry is
incompetant and how it's all NASA's fault and... But of course it's
Somebody Else's Rocket, and being Russian, they can do no wrong.

(tosses the ball to Pat, who'll surely run with it as far as
a nine-toes can)

--Damon

Derek Lyons wrote:
"Ed Kyle" wrote:

An ILS Proton M/Briz M failed to put Arabsat 4A into a
planned geosynchronous transfer orbit after launch from
Baikonur Area 200 Pad 39 on February 28. The Briz M
stage suffered some sort of failure during one of its
planned four burns, stranding Arabsat 4A in a useless
orbit.

All singing - all dancing.

(And in the week since the original post - there have been no replies
to Ed's post, and no further discussion... Proof positive of the bias
I've been noting for years.)

I guess the problem is that I didn't blame George Bush
or Hillary Clinton for the failure, or suggest that it might
have been an Arianespace or SeaLaunch conspiracy,
or that maybe this Briz stage never actually was in
space at all - that it was all done on a sound stage in
Canada or India.

BTW, here are some reported "facts" about the failure.
The stage and payload ended up in a 505x14,695 km
x 51.5 deg orbit, suggesting that the stage shut down
during the latter stages of the second burn, before the
planned drop tank jetttison. ILS reported that the satellite
was separated from the stage, and ground observers
detected two objects in the orbit. A commision has been
set up to investigate the failure. It seems to have been
given until the end of March to put out a report so as not
to delay the next Proton launch(!)

- Ed Kyle

Damon Hill wrote:

(Henry Spencer) wrote in :

In article ,
Derek Lyons wrote:
(And in the week since the original post - there have been no replies
to Ed's post, and no further discussion... Proof positive of the bias
I've been noting for years.)

You were expecting a raging debate about whether the upper stage's name
is spelled Briz or Breeze, perhaps?

Well, I should have noted grumpily that if it'd been an American launcher,
the group would have been up in arms about how American industry is
incompetant and how it's all NASA's fault and... But of course it's
Somebody Else's Rocket, and being Russian, they can do no wrong.

My point exactly Damon. And Henry would have been among the first to
weigh in on how current practices keep costs high and reliability
crappy.

D.
--
Touch-twice life. Eat. Drink. Laugh.

-Resolved: To be more temperate in my postings.
Oct 5th, 2004 JDL

In article ,
Damon Hill wrote:
You were expecting a raging debate about whether the upper stage's name
is spelled Briz or Breeze, perhaps?

Well, I should have noted grumpily that if it'd been an American launcher,
the group would have been up in arms about how American industry is
incompetant and how it's all NASA's fault and... But of course it's
Somebody Else's Rocket, and being Russian, they can do no wrong.

You're confusing "people don't have anything specific to say about their
faults" with "they have no faults".

The silence just indicates that nobody thinks they have anything
interesting to say about the failure (which is hardly surprising, given
how few facts are available). No further conclusion is justified.
--
spsystems.net is temporarily off the air; | Henry Spencer
mail to henry at zoo.utoronto.ca instead. |

In article ,
Derek Lyons wrote:
Well, I should have noted grumpily that if it'd been an American launcher,
the group would have been up in arms about how American industry is
incompetant and how it's all NASA's fault and...

My point exactly Damon. And Henry would have been among the first to
weigh in on how current practices keep costs high and reliability crappy.

"The wicked flee when no man pursueth." :-)

--
spsystems.net is temporarily off the air; | Henry Spencer
mail to henry at zoo.utoronto.ca instead. |