Could a shuttle be invisible?

Those of you who watch "The West Wing" undoubtedly noticed the
storyline about the military space shuttle in the last two episodes
of the season. For those who don't watch the show, the story is that
there's a slow air leak on the space station and there are no
civilian shuttles ready to launch, so should the president admit
the existence of the secret DoD shuttle in order to rescue the
three people on the station? Or could they send that shuttle up
to rescue the astronauts without the public knowing?

(Yeah, yeah, we've been all over the Soyuz module in the "West Wing"
newsgroup. Evidently the space station in the show's universe doesn't
have one. ;-))

Anyway...someone was just speculating whether a shuttle could be
launched secretly. I'm wondering whether it could orbit secretly.
Would it be possible to make one that's so nonreflective that no
amateur astronomers or satellite hunters would spot it? Assume
for the moment (although feel free to add this sticky wicket into
the mix if you like) that our only goal is lack of reflection, and
we don't have to think of a material that's both nonreflective and
able to withstand the launch and reentry environments. Even with
the unrealistically minimal requirements of on-orbit invisibility
only, could it be done?


Patty

On 2005-04-09, Patty Winter wrote:

Anyway...someone was just speculating whether a shuttle could be
launched secretly. I'm wondering whether it could orbit secretly.
Would it be possible to make one that's so nonreflective that no
amateur astronomers or satellite hunters would spot it? Assume

I was thinking about this this afternoon, for some reason; my assumption
is yes-and-no.

I very much doubt it is practical that you could construct a shuttle in
such a way that it was effectively invisible; it'd just be too much of a
headache. But, however, invisible is not just "cannot be seen"; it is
"is not seen to be there". Amateur satellite watchers have a
surprisingly good record of keeping tabs on classified satellites - but,
then, they have plenty of time, and they know they were launched. Even
then, they're often lost for significant periods of time.

If a shuttle was not known to have been launched, it is very likely they
would not be able to identify it as a shuttle; there's a good chance
that even something intended to be "stealthy" would be recorded and
observed, but it's equally likely that - given the short duration of
most likely Shuttle operations - that by the time enough data was
recorded to figure out what the object was, it'd have de-orbited.
"Hiding in plain sight" is, in a way, a plausible solution here;
occasional orbital changes, where possible, would also work.

Of course, launching a Shuttle secretly is a pretty big prequsite...

--
-Andrew Gray

Patty Winter wrote:

Anyway...someone was just speculating whether a shuttle could be
launched secretly. I'm wondering whether it could orbit secretly.
Would it be possible to make one that's so nonreflective that no
amateur astronomers or satellite hunters would spot it? Assume
for the moment (although feel free to add this sticky wicket into
the mix if you like) that our only goal is lack of reflection, and
we don't have to think of a material that's both nonreflective and
able to withstand the launch and reentry environments. Even with
the unrealistically minimal requirements of on-orbit invisibility
only, could it be done?

Regardless of whether it could be hidden on orbit (which is extremely
unlikely), you couldn't *launch* secretly, because various countries
have satellites dedicated to watching for ballistic missile launches
(the Russians for sure, and perhaps European powers and China). You
very much would want to make *sure* they know in advance that you are
launching as spacecraft, because the consequences of a misunderstanding
could be rather unpleasant.

The space capable powers notify each other of space launches and
missile tests for exactly this reason.

That really rules out the whole 'secret shuttle' premise. Such a thing
never would have been built in the first place, because the only reason
to build it would be to hide it from the Soviets/Russians, and there is
absolutely no way you could disguise the IR signature of the launches.

On Sat, 09 Apr 2005 13:37:45 -0700, hop wrote:

Patty Winter wrote:

Anyway...someone was just speculating whether a shuttle could be
launched secretly. I'm wondering whether it could orbit secretly. Would
it be possible to make one that's so nonreflective that no amateur
astronomers or satellite hunters would spot it? Assume for the moment
(although feel free to add this sticky wicket into the mix if you like)
that our only goal is lack of reflection, and we don't have to think of
a material that's both nonreflective and able to withstand the launch
and reentry environments. Even with the unrealistically minimal
requirements of on-orbit invisibility only, could it be done?

Regardless of whether it could be hidden on orbit (which is extremely
unlikely), you couldn't *launch* secretly, because various countries
have satellites dedicated to watching for ballistic missile launches
(the Russians for sure, and perhaps European powers and China). You very
much would want to make *sure* they know in advance that you are
launching as spacecraft, because the consequences of a misunderstanding
could be rather unpleasant.

The space capable powers notify each other of space launches and missile
tests for exactly this reason.

That really rules out the whole 'secret shuttle' premise. Such a thing
never would have been built in the first place, because the only reason
to build it would be to hide it from the Soviets/Russians, and there is
absolutely no way you could disguise the IR signature of the launches.


Sure they could, launch it on an expendable booster, oops our satellite
didn't make it to the right orbit, or we're launching a dummy payload
today. The payload shroud comes off in second stage, no one will be able
to see it. Not a space shuttle, but a smaller one. Invisible onorbit too.
Put some movable mirrors on it, so that the light from the Sun, Moon or
Earth is reflected away from the Earth. It's not invisible to aliens, but
to earthlings it is. The only time it would be visible would be during
reentry, over the ocean where few people would see it, and wouldn't know
what they saw if they did.

--
Craig Fink
Courtesy E-Mail Welcome @

"Patty Winter" wrote in message
...
..."The West Wing"...military space shuttle in the last two episodes
of the season....someone was just speculating whether a shuttle could be
launched secretly. I'm wondering whether it could orbit secretly.
Would it be possible to make one that's so nonreflective that no
amateur astronomers or satellite hunters would spot it?...minimal
requirements
of on-orbit invisibility only, could it be done?

As these pictures show, amateur images of the current shuttle orbiter
are pretty high resolution -- you can clearly see the vehicle shape
(scroll to bottom of this page):

http://www.sas.org/E-Bulletin/2002-0...otes/body.html

Optical stealth to preclude this seems very difficult. In general I'd say
not possible.

Originally DoD planned on having their own shuttle fleet, and even
built an entire launch complex called SLC-6 at Vandenberg, CA. For
several reasons this was never used:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/...vafb-slc-6.htm

Military shuttles have been discussed for decades, back to the
X-20 Dyna Soar:

http://www.answers.com/topic/x-20-dyna-soar

So in that sense the West Wing plot is not without basis.

A military shuttle is technically feasible. However it would be difficult to
launch or orbit without observation. In current military strategy there's
little tactical benefit to a manned orbital vehicle. What benefit would
justify the huge expense? Anti satellite? Reconnaissance? Already covered
by capable unmanned platforms.

To reach ISS, the launch inclination must be roughly 52 degrees, which
means you can't launch from the US west coast. Launches from FL
or anywhere on the east coast would be visible to millions of people.

The West Wing plot is not totally without technical merit, but is
unlikely to happen in the real world.

Joe D. wrote:
"Patty Winter" wrote in message
...

..."The West Wing"...military space shuttle in the last two episodes
of the season....someone was just speculating whether a shuttle could be
launched secretly. I'm wondering whether it could orbit secretly.
Would it be possible to make one that's so nonreflective that no
amateur astronomers or satellite hunters would spot it?...minimal
requirements
of on-orbit invisibility only, could it be done?


As these pictures show, amateur images of the current shuttle orbiter
are pretty high resolution -- you can clearly see the vehicle shape
(scroll to bottom of this page):

http://www.sas.org/E-Bulletin/2002-0...otes/body.html

Optical stealth to preclude this seems very difficult. In general I'd say
not possible.

Optical camouflage already exists, although I don't see the practicality
of applying it to a shuttle.
http://projects.star.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp...DIA/xv/oc.html
Some of those videos are rather impressive.

Originally DoD planned on having their own shuttle fleet, and even
built an entire launch complex called SLC-6 at Vandenberg, CA. For
several reasons this was never used:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/...vafb-slc-6.htm

Military shuttles have been discussed for decades, back to the
X-20 Dyna Soar:

http://www.answers.com/topic/x-20-dyna-soar

So in that sense the West Wing plot is not without basis.

A military shuttle is technically feasible. However it would be difficult to
launch or orbit without observation. In current military strategy there's
little tactical benefit to a manned orbital vehicle. What benefit would
justify the huge expense? Anti satellite? Reconnaissance? Already covered
by capable unmanned platforms.

To reach ISS, the launch inclination must be roughly 52 degrees, which
means you can't launch from the US west coast. Launches from FL
or anywhere on the east coast would be visible to millions of people.

The West Wing plot is not totally without technical merit, but is
unlikely to happen in the real world.

In article ,
(Patty Winter) wrote:

(Yeah, yeah, we've been all over the Soyuz module in the "West Wing"
newsgroup. Evidently the space station in the show's universe doesn't
have one. ;-))

Even if there was not a Soyus docked at the ISS, why not simply
hire the Russians to send up a capsule to rescue the crew. Some
of the crew is Russian, anyway, so it isn't like the Russians
don't have a vested interest.

-john-

--
================================================== ====================
John A. Weeks III 952-432-2708
Newave Communications http://www.johnweeks.com
================================================== ====================

In article ,
John A. Weeks III wrote:

Even if there was not a Soyus docked at the ISS, why not simply
hire the Russians to send up a capsule to rescue the crew. Some
of the crew is Russian, anyway, so it isn't like the Russians
don't have a vested interest.

They must have dealt with that option in the show, but I don't
recall it. They probably said that the Russians didn't have
anything ready to rescue them, either.

As for the other unrealities...I read sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe,
too, and have seen those amateur photos of the shuttle and ISS in orbit.
Very impressive.

And as for getting a shuttle into orbit secretly in the first place,
good points about how it isn't advisable to launch rockets without
notifying the neighbors. ;-)

It would indeed be impossible to launch from KSC or Vandenberg without
the public knowing. I suppose in the "West Wing" universe the U.S. might
have shuttle launch facilities on Diego Garcia or someplace else like
that, but again, we'd be back to other countries getting nervous about
an unannounced launch. And I wouldn't count on the information staying
secret if President Bartlet notified the Russian president and other
relevant heads of state.

I guess we'll all just have to tune in to the season premier in the
fall to find out what happens. ;-)


Patty

Craig Fink wrote:


Sure they could, launch it on an expendable booster, oops our
satellite
didn't make it to the right orbit, or we're launching a dummy payload
today. The payload shroud comes off in second stage, no one will be
able
to see it. Not a space shuttle, but a smaller one. Invisible onorbit
too.
Put some movable mirrors on it, so that the light from the Sun, Moon
or
Earth is reflected away from the Earth. It's not invisible to aliens,
but
to earthlings it is. The only time it would be visible would be
during
reentry, over the ocean where few people would see it, and wouldn't
know
what they saw if they did.

I presumed 'shuttle' to be something vaguely related to the STS
spacecraft and launcher system.

Secret or obfuscated payloads are certainly possible, and indeed, a
number have been exposed after the fact. A manned one isn't completely
impossible, but having one with anything remotely like the capabilities
of STS would require an ELV larger than what we have in operation
(shuttle-C would only work if we were actually launching shuttle-Cs).
Secret reentry also seems problematic. Re-entering over the ocean
doesn't prevent a glaring IR track easily seen from GEO. I of course am
assuming that the only reason we would build secret spacecraft is to
hide it from major powers, not Joe Sixpack on the ground.

--
Craig Fink
Courtesy E-Mail Welcome @

Well... A launch and a orbital mission can be done in secret.

Heck, even when STS-107 was launched and in orbit, many people didn't
even know it was launched and in orbit. The question, did they know
exactly on how it return back to Earth?



Now for the public knowing a secret launch and/or orbital mission.
Well... They could accidentally watch the launch and/or even see it in
orbit. But do they even know what it is when they see one?

Remember that the people at Texas didn't know what they saw above them
at 1st February 2003, untill the mass media told them that it was the
Columbia. Of course, the mass media could also notified them it as
something else, it then end, the mass media could told it as anything
they want, from a D-7 to NX-01.



As for amateur astronomers and satellite hunters.

Well... They were able to look for things and observe it closely
because they already knew on where to look at.



As for other countries.

Well... It would be hard to hide a launch and orbital mission to other
countries' intelligence agencies and making them be silent over the
whole thing, unless of course if the other countries are actually under
the same leadership instead of acting independently.

The same goes for the mass media.