Past Perfect, Future Misleading

Manned spaceflight should
be an national industry not a government program.

Craig Fink

Where's the revenue stream that would interest industry?

The technology for establishing, say, a Moon base, has existed for
-decades- and is well within the technological capacity of industry.
That it hasn't been done is entirely because no one can think of a way
to make a buck at it.

If your best idea is to send people on joyrides, you're not going to
motivate industry.

John Ordover wrote:
Manned spaceflight should

be an national industry not a government program.

Craig Fink


Where's the revenue stream that would interest industry?

The technology for establishing, say, a Moon base, has existed for
-decades- and is well within the technological capacity of industry.
That it hasn't been done is entirely because no one can think of a way
to make a buck at it.

If your best idea is to send people on joyrides, you're not going to
motivate industry.

There have been a multitude of reports on the huge store of energy
in the deep sea methane hydrate deposits, with returns as large as the
biggest oil fields, but it's too hard to get to and nobody with any
money will bother to exploit it.
What makes space any different?
IMHO: I'm afraid that space is useless as a source of product or
services.
Jim Davis

"John Ordover" wrote in message
om...
There have been a multitude of reports on the huge store of energy
in the deep sea methane hydrate deposits, with returns as large as the
biggest oil fields, but it's too hard to get to and nobody with any
money will bother to exploit it.
What makes space any different?
IMHO: I'm afraid that space is useless as a source of product or
services.
Jim Davis

Even I am more optimistic than that - I think there probably is a way
to exploit space to make a bundle that no one has thought of yet.

And that way will only be found by people looking for and working
on answers, not someone that simply collects negatives.

Even I am more optimistic than that - I think there probably is a way
to exploit space to make a bundle that no one has thought of yet.

And that way will only be found by people looking for and working
on answers, not someone that simply collects negatives.

Assuming they are actually working on it, rather than deluding
themselves with dreams of asteroid mining, joyrides, and other such
dead ends.

"John Ordover" wrote in message
m...
Even I am more optimistic than that - I think there probably is a way
to exploit space to make a bundle that no one has thought of yet.

And that way will only be found by people looking for and working
on answers, not someone that simply collects negatives.

Assuming they are actually working on it, rather than deluding
themselves with dreams of asteroid mining, joyrides, and other such
dead ends.

Clearly you have not researched these areas. You have a problem with
'Killer App syndrome' in which any revenue stream must stand alone
and support the entire development and exploitation effort. Either of
the items you mentioned will not do the whole job, no one item will.

What is required is to integrate as many revenue streams as possible
into a coherent business plan. Joyrides and asteroid mining do not fit
into the same plan. We once identified 9 possible revenue streams
for one vehicle. Each inadequate alone, sufficient with margin as a group.

Also you do not go from zero to unlimited access in one jump. Any
coherent plan includes as large a number of profitable intermediate
steps as possible. Fortunes and progress are made in the margins.
Identifying these margins is a job in itself for the careful investigator.
Unlimited pessimism or optimism is a hindrance.

These are hard lessons I learned building one company, and the
lessons I am applying to a second. I won't be first or even second,
but I will make money.

In article ,
says...
Even I am more optimistic than that - I think there probably is a way
to exploit space to make a bundle that no one has thought of yet.

And that way will only be found by people looking for and working
on answers, not someone that simply collects negatives.

Assuming they are actually working on it, rather than deluding
themselves with dreams of asteroid mining, joyrides, and other such
dead ends.

Dead ends? The last of the Earth's easily accessible soft iron deposits
were depleted during World War II. We're now mining taconite and
recycling steel in order to keep up with the demand for iron. Eventually
(granted, in a future that's far enough removed that none of us here will
ever see it), we will *need* to go off-planet for iron. Assuming we
insist on using iron to make new buildings, machines, etc.

Do you propose that we wait until the last mines are drying up and we
can't junk the old stuff fast enough to keep up with demand for new stuff
to start *thinking* about going off-planet for more iron? If so, I'd say
your thinking is reminiscent of most of the short-sighted politicians and
corporate officers in the world today. So, if that's the conceptual
company you want to keep...

--

Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for | Doug Van Dorn
thou art crunchy and taste good with ketchup |