The Great Filter.

Late in WW II, Enrico Fermi was participating in a
discussion that turned to life on other worlds. In
his usual cut-to-the-core style, Fermi said, "If
there are aliens, where are they?" I don't know
his reasoning that brought him to this question,
my point is, it's been around for a while and as of
today, we haven't an answer to it.

My reasoning is, each time the age of this universe
doubles, that's time enough for a possibility of
intelligent life to evolve and flower. However you
want to reckon it, today's universe age has doubled
many times; yet there's nobody in sight but us.

How does this happen? Nick Bostrom has a piece on
the topic in the Boston Sunday Globe, 2008 May 25,
pages D1 and D4. (He doesn't acknowledge Fermi
in it, which leaves me feeling he didn't finish his
research.) And in this piece, Bostrom refers to a
"Great Filter" proposed by Robin Hanson. And he
says, we can reasonably believe the reason for the
silence we hear is somewhere along the line, the
Great Filter takes out those cultures that would
otherwise have evolved enough for us to hear them
from far away.

But *what is* this Great Filter? Now we come into
the character of today's world with its technical
and science rational resources; vs the faith-based
and ideological isms -- not to say corruptions --
so busy in this world. I wonder: is *that* where
this Great Filter is? How soon will it get to
*us*? ??

Titeotwawki -- mha [sci.space.policy 2008 May 26]

On May 26, 10:02 am, "Martha Adams" wrote:

[snip Fermi stuff]

But *what is* this Great Filter?

Space and time - large quantities of it.

"Martha Adams" wrote in message
news:ZhA_j.2755$3f1.2500@trndny02...
Late in WW II, Enrico Fermi was participating in a
discussion that turned to life on other worlds. In
his usual cut-to-the-core style, Fermi said, "If
there are aliens, where are they?" I don't know his reasoning that brought
him to this question,
my point is, it's been around for a while and as of
today, we haven't an answer to it.


The recent discoveries of dark matter and dark energy
provide a good clue. At almost the same time life first
evolved on earth, the universe experienced a significant
change in state. It transitioned from a dark matter dominated
universe to a dark energy dominated one. This transition
corresponds to when the universe become matter dominated.
As opposed to energy dominated. And after this transition
the universe began a second much slower period of
universal inflation. It appears the conditions for life
become widely better after this transition than before.
As an energy dominated universe is hotter, more volatile
and less stable. Since the age of our sun is a significant
portion of the age of the universe. It's quite possible
galaxies needed all that time to evolve to the point
more suitable for life.

A Quintessential Introduction to Dark Energy
http://wwwphy.princeton.edu/~steinh/steinhardt.pdf


So there is no contradiction between the fact we seem
never to have been visited, and the idea that the universe
should teem with life. Life should be evolving simultaneously
throughout the universe. Given the distance we shouldn't
expect to spot anyone else. As our telescopes show us
what the universe.....USED... to look likein the distant past.
Not what is going on now. As to being visited, that makes
even less sense. If some life became advanced enough
to travel, they would already have the answers such
travel was meant to answer. It's our....ignorance...of
the universe....our backwardness technologically...that
makes us want to explore. To search for the answers
elsewhere, when it truth, they are waiting to be found
very close to home.



My reasoning is, each time the age of this universe
doubles, that's time enough for a possibility of intelligent life to evolve
and flower. However you
want to reckon it, today's universe age has doubled
many times; yet there's nobody in sight but us.

How does this happen? Nick Bostrom has a piece on
the topic in the Boston Sunday Globe, 2008 May 25,
pages D1 and D4. (He doesn't acknowledge Fermi
in it, which leaves me feeling he didn't finish his
research.) And in this piece, Bostrom refers to a
"Great Filter" proposed by Robin Hanson. And he
says, we can reasonably believe the reason for the silence we hear is
somewhere along the line, the
Great Filter takes out those cultures that would
otherwise have evolved enough for us to hear them
from far away.

But *what is* this Great Filter?


Distance. As we look deeper into the universe, we're looking
farther into the past. To find life elsewhere that we can
communicate with, it would have to evolve very close
to us in space and time.


Now we come into
the character of today's world with its technical
and science rational resources; vs the faith-based
and ideological isms -- not to say corruptions --
so busy in this world. I wonder: is *that* where
this Great Filter is? How soon will it get to
*us*? ??


When we begin to understand Nature and its beauty.

In general, every forest has one top predator.
Every niche has a heirarchy of emegence.

For our region of space...we're it.

Just because we can't quite see over the next hill, doesn't
mean that niche isn't being filled quite the same way
....as we speak.

Once Creation is truly understood, we'll see that it's
a universal process inherent to the universe. And
that means a universe full of life. Just because we
can't see them, doesn't mean they're not out there.

Proof is for those that have little understanding, and
hence faith, in the simplicity of universal reach
of Nature.


" I Never saw a moor,
I never saw the sea;
Yet know I how the heather looks,
And what a wave must be.
I never spoke with God,
Nor visited in heaven;
Yet certain am I of the spot
As if the chart were given."



By Emily Dickinson


s



Titeotwawki -- mha [sci.space.policy 2008 May 26]

On May 26, 8:02*am, "Martha Adams" wrote:
Late in WW II, Enrico Fermi was participating in a
discussion that turned to life on other worlds. *In
his usual cut-to-the-core style, Fermi said, "If
there are aliens, where are they?" *I don't know
his reasoning that brought him to this question,
my point is, it's been around for a while and as of
today, we haven't an answer to it.

My reasoning is, each time the age of this universe
doubles, that's time enough for a possibility of
intelligent life to evolve and flower. *However you
want to reckon it, today's universe age has doubled
many times; yet there's nobody in sight but us.

How does this happen? *Nick Bostrom has a piece on
the topic in the Boston Sunday Globe, 2008 May 25,
pages D1 and D4. *(He doesn't acknowledge Fermi
in it, which leaves me feeling he didn't finish his
research.) *And in this piece, Bostrom refers to a
"Great Filter" proposed by Robin Hanson. *And he
says, we can reasonably believe the reason for the
silence we hear is somewhere along the line, the
Great Filter takes out those cultures that would
otherwise have evolved enough for us to hear them
from far away.

But *what is* this Great Filter? *Now we come into
the character of today's world with its technical
and science rational resources; vs the faith-based
and ideological isms -- not to say corruptions --
so busy in this world. *I wonder: is *that* where
this Great Filter is? *How soon will it get to
*us*? *??

Titeotwawki -- mha [sci.space.policy 2008 May 26]

Remember the prime directive from Star trek. Any evidence of even a
robotic observer would violate it.
In the early years of human civilization even a five meter telescopes
could have looked down upon our progress without being detected. When
it is determined that we can make telescopes, such an observer would
begin a retreat, perhaps to the asteroids.

Absence of proof is not proof of absense.

On May 26, 5:40 pm, Totorkon wrote:
On May 26, 8:02 am, "Martha Adams" wrote:



Late in WW II, Enrico Fermi was participating in a
discussion that turned to life on other worlds. In
his usual cut-to-the-core style, Fermi said, "If
there are aliens, where are they?" I don't know
his reasoning that brought him to this question,
my point is, it's been around for a while and as of
today, we haven't an answer to it.

My reasoning is, each time the age of this universe
doubles, that's time enough for a possibility of
intelligent life to evolve and flower. However you
want to reckon it, today's universe age has doubled
many times; yet there's nobody in sight but us.

How does this happen? Nick Bostrom has a piece on
the topic in the Boston Sunday Globe, 2008 May 25,
pages D1 and D4. (He doesn't acknowledge Fermi
in it, which leaves me feeling he didn't finish his
research.) And in this piece, Bostrom refers to a
"Great Filter" proposed by Robin Hanson. And he
says, we can reasonably believe the reason for the
silence we hear is somewhere along the line, the
Great Filter takes out those cultures that would
otherwise have evolved enough for us to hear them
from far away.

But *what is* this Great Filter? Now we come into
the character of today's world with its technical
and science rational resources; vs the faith-based
and ideological isms -- not to say corruptions --
so busy in this world. I wonder: is *that* where
this Great Filter is? How soon will it get to
*us*? ??

Titeotwawki -- mha [sci.space.policy 2008 May 26]

Remember the prime directive from Star trek. Any evidence of even a
robotic observer would violate it.
In the early years of human civilization even a five meter telescopes
could have looked down upon our progress without being detected. When
it is determined that we can make telescopes, such an observer would
begin a retreat, perhaps to the asteroids.

Absence of proof is not proof of absence.

So the big question is, which asteroid, exactly?

On May 26, 9:02 am, "Martha Adams" wrote:

My reasoning is, each time the age of this universe
doubles, that's time enough for a possibility of
intelligent life to evolve and flower.

I don't agree. When the age of the universe doubled from one
millisecond to two milliseconds, I very much doubt that any
intelligent life arose therein.

John Savard

"Quadibloc" wrote in message
...
On May 26, 9:02 am, "Martha Adams" wrote:

My reasoning is, each time the age of this universe
doubles, that's time enough for a possibility of
intelligent life to evolve and flower.

I don't agree. When the age of the universe doubled from one
millisecond to two milliseconds, I very much doubt that any
intelligent life arose therein.

John Savard

This is very interesting, and it occurred to me when I first
realized the practical meaning of the doubling-time I
mentioned earlier. How do you know no intelligent life grew
and flourished and decayed in that universe age doubling from
one millisecond to two? ??

Ref: Forward's two stories about life on the surface of a
neutron star.

Titeotwawki -- mha [sci.space.policy 2008 May 27]

On May 26, 11:04 pm, "Martha Adams" wrote:
"Quadibloc" wrote in message

...

On May 26, 9:02 am, "Martha Adams" wrote:

My reasoning is, each time the age of this universe
doubles, that's time enough for a possibility of
intelligent life to evolve and flower.

I don't agree. When the age of the universe doubled from one
millisecond to two milliseconds, I very much doubt that any
intelligent life arose therein.

John Savard

This is very interesting, and it occurred to me when I first
realized the practical meaning of the doubling-time I
mentioned earlier. How do you know no intelligent life grew
and flourished and decayed in that universe age doubling from
one millisecond to two? ??

Ref: Forward's two stories about life on the surface of a
neutron star.

In addition to life not as we know it, you might also consider er ...
considerations such as this as your so called 'Martha
Filter' (everything must have a name!) :

http://arxiv.org/find/physics/1/au:+.../0/1/0/all/0/1

On May 26, 4:38*pm, kT wrote:
On May 26, 5:40 pm, Totorkon wrote:





On May 26, 8:02 am, "Martha Adams" wrote:

Late in WW II, Enrico Fermi was participating in a
discussion that turned to life on other worlds. *In
his usual cut-to-the-core style, Fermi said, "If
there are aliens, where are they?" *I don't know
his reasoning that brought him to this question,
my point is, it's been around for a while and as of
today, we haven't an answer to it.

My reasoning is, each time the age of this universe
doubles, that's time enough for a possibility of
intelligent life to evolve and flower. *However you
want to reckon it, today's universe age has doubled
many times; yet there's nobody in sight but us.

How does this happen? *Nick Bostrom has a piece on
the topic in the Boston Sunday Globe, 2008 May 25,
pages D1 and D4. *(He doesn't acknowledge Fermi
in it, which leaves me feeling he didn't finish his
research.) *And in this piece, Bostrom refers to a
"Great Filter" proposed by Robin Hanson. *And he
says, we can reasonably believe the reason for the
silence we hear is somewhere along the line, the
Great Filter takes out those cultures that would
otherwise have evolved enough for us to hear them
from far away.

But *what is* this Great Filter? *Now we come into
the character of today's world with its technical
and science rational resources; vs the faith-based
and ideological isms -- not to say corruptions --
so busy in this world. *I wonder: is *that* where
this Great Filter is? *How soon will it get to
*us*? *??

Titeotwawki -- mha [sci.space.policy 2008 May 26]

Remember the prime directive from Star trek. *Any evidence of even a
robotic observer would violate it.
In the early years of human civilization even a five meter telescopes
could have looked down upon our progress without being detected. *When
it is determined that we can make telescopes, such an observer would
begin a retreat, perhaps to the asteroids.

Absence of proof is not proof of absence.

So the big question is, which asteroid, exactly?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It might make for a good scifi story, an ET AI that has watched
humanity from prehistoric settlements through the ionians and greeks,
maybe even the trojan war. The seige of Samarkand by Genghis, the
building of manchu picchu and the great wall, the santa maria, and the
golden hind as seen from a ten meter eye in low orbit might be shared
before 'etai' self destructs after being discovered to prevent
technological contamination.

It adds an aura of the mysterious to think when looking up at the
stars that some distant, hidden, ancient voyager may be looking down
and transmitting its observations for study by a civilization a
thousand times older than our own.

On May 26, 10:04*pm, "Martha Adams" wrote:
"Quadibloc" wrote in message
...
On May 26, 9:02 am, "Martha Adams" wrote:

My reasoning is, each time the age of this universe
doubles, that's time enough for a possibility of
intelligent life to evolve and flower.

I don't agree. When the age of the universe doubled from one
millisecond to two milliseconds, I very much doubt that any
intelligent life arose therein.

How do you know no intelligent life grew
and flourished and decayed in that universe age doubling from
one millisecond to two? *??

I don't _know_ that; but because the life we do know is very delicate,
and developed over a long period of time, I don't see any reason to
assume that life of a different kind could be expected in the very
early universe. Nor does there seem to be any obvious reason to expect
things to happen faster when the universe is younger; thus, I don't
see any reason to assign any particular significance to the doubling
of the age of the universe.

One could counter that there are processes that happen faster at
higher temperatures, and higher energies are a characteristic of the
early universe. That's true enough, but that doesn't give a reason to
jump to the conclusions that:

- the effective timescale is inversely proportional to the age of the
universe, and

- the different processes at different energies that dominated then
are qualitatively identical to those which exist now, and so are
capable of all the same things, including life.

Imagination is one thing which is valuable and important, but jumping
to _detailed_ conclusions implies one is taking fancies and
speculations far too seriously. Keeping the distinction between our
hopes and dreams on the one hand, and the things we know as hard fact,
very clear is important to make progress towards understanding the
universe.

John Savard