interview with Paul Allen

There is a very brief interview with Paul Allen in Newsweek, available
online he http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5251227/site/newsweek/

It contains this disappointing tidbit:

"Q: Are we on the verge of a commercial space-tourism industry?"

"A: We have shown that you can construct a vehicle like this with a
modest budget. The big question is, how many people will sign up, and
will they pay $50,000 to $200,000 to go on one of those flights. It's
not something I would contemplate unless I had partners willing to share
the risk. I'm not personally really looking much beyond Monday, and then
winning the X Prize."

Of course he could change his mind, or he might find some partners (one
wonders how much cash Space Adventures has to invest), or he might just
be playing his cards close to his chest (again).

I'd rather he said "Yes, we'll be open for business by 2006" or some
such, but I guess we'll take what we can get. The rest of the article
does confirm a strong interest in space in general, e.g.: "Having a
space-tourism experience, whether suborbital or orbital, within the
reach of people would be an exciting prospect." So that's a good sign,
at least.

And of course, even if Allen doesn't personally fund the first
suborbital tourism craft, once the X-Prize is won I think it won't be
long before someone else does.

Best,
- Joe

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Joe Strout wrote:

There is a very brief interview with Paul Allen in Newsweek, available
online he http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5251227/site/newsweek/

It contains this disappointing tidbit:

"Q: Are we on the verge of a commercial space-tourism industry?"

"A: We have shown that you can construct a vehicle like this with a
modest budget. The big question is, how many people will sign up, and
will they pay $50,000 to $200,000 to go on one of those flights. It's
not something I would contemplate unless I had partners willing to share
the risk. I'm not personally really looking much beyond Monday, and then
winning the X Prize."

It's interesting that you find stone cold facts disappointing.
(Especially since I've been telling everyone that the number of
willing customers is an unknown for a couple of years now.)

Of course he could change his mind, or he might find some partners (one
wonders how much cash Space Adventures has to invest), or he might just
be playing his cards close to his chest (again).

I don't find it hard to believe that he's playing a waiting game.
History shows that by and large long term success comes not from being
an early adopter, but by entering the field after the bugs are worked
out and one can get started without the baggage the bugs create.

Equally, I would not be surprised if he doesn't enter the field at
all. Starting a suborbital tourist business and funding it through
the many lean years of operations before the possibility of profits
is a large financial commitment.

I'd rather he said "Yes, we'll be open for business by 2006" or some
such, but I guess we'll take what we can get. The rest of the article
does confirm a strong interest in space in general, e.g.: "Having a
space-tourism experience, whether suborbital or orbital, within the
reach of people would be an exciting prospect." So that's a good sign,
at least.

Ever the optimist, even in the face of facts. As I discussed earlier,
this starkly shows the difference between the enthusiast and everyone
else. Here, you grasp at straws rather than examining the reality.

And of course, even if Allen doesn't personally fund the first
suborbital tourism craft, once the X-Prize is won I think it won't be
long before someone else does.

I strongly suspect that it will be a group of investors leading a
corporation, possibly with public investment, rather than a single
individual. Talking over the issue with my wife (who is an
accountant), the figure $100 million doesn't appear too large as a
ballpark for funding such a startup. Even though Paul Allen got his
billions essentially by lucky accident, he's a shrewd businessman.

D.
--
Touch-twice life. Eat. Drink. Laugh.