On Thursday, July 25, 2019 at 6:46:32 AM UTC-5, David Spain wrote:
On 7/24/2019 8:07 PM, Scott Kozel wrote:
Anyone want to predict whether this will actually happen in 2024?
It would be interesting for sure.


I'd say improbable... Forgetting minor nits such as the lack of a lander
and lunar EVA suits...

It'll be interesting to see if they actually have a working upper stage
for Block 1 SLS, let alone reliable.

If the Delta III experience of DCSS is any indication of a forerunner
for ICPS...

"The DCSS first flew on 3 Delta IIIs, and failed 2 of 2 times. The
booster failed on the third flight, causing the loss of the DCSS before
ignitions." ..and..

"The Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (ICPS), a modified 5–meter DCSS,
will fly as the upper stage of NASA's Block 1 Space Launch System.[3]
Artemis 1, the first flight, is scheduled for late 2020."

From:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_...c_Second_Stage

A 2nd stage failure would certainly be basis for program delays.

In addition to having a lander and EVA suits designed and built, need
to have some recent experience in using them, including with current
astronauts.

Also need recent experience with rendezvous and docking, including with
current astronauts.

All these well supplied in Gemini and the first 3 Apollo/Saturn V missions,
before the landing mission.

Doing a circumlunar mission and then a landing mission in 2024 sounds
good on paper, but I suspect that they need a lot more current
experience of the type in the 1960s above, if they want to be
successful.