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Old January 22nd 19, 10:20 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Fred J. McCall[_3_]
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Default Stratolaunch Out Of Launch Vehicle Business

"Rocket Man" wrote on Tue, 22 Jan 2019
13:39:11 +0100:


"Rocket Man" wrote in message
...

"Fred J. McCall" wrote in message
...
Stratolaunch is halting development of its own engines and launch
vehicles and focusing on aircraft development to launch
Northrop-Grumman boosters. This action, with the accompanying layoff
of 50 or so people, is occurring in the wake of Paul Allen's death and
may be a sign that without a 'sweetheart' investor the development of
their own engines and vehicles, announced last year, is just too
expensive for them to sustain.


I'm pretty sure that in the near future they'll cease operations
completely. There're simply too many competitors out there, a number of
which have already established themselves in the market. And then there's
the state-sponsored competition from Europe, China and India. The pie is
simply too small for all of them to make a living. China is also
'creating' so-called 'commercial' space companies, some of which are
SpaceX copy-cats and wannabes.


One has to wonder if the same thing could happen to Blue Origin if
Jeff Bezos were to drop dead for some reason. That seems less likely,
as they're further along in vehicle development, but still possible.


I'm pretty sure the same thing would happen. For Bezos, Blue Origin is
just a (very expensive) hobby. Without the cash he's putting up Blue
Origin would collapse almost overnight.


In addition, I believe Bezos is not getting his money's worth for the $1
billion a year he's spending on Blue Origin. Yes, there are plans, but New
Shepard is still being tested and New Glenn and New Armstrong are nothing
put PowerPoint slides at the moment. Very little metal has been cut.


The two biggest problems with New Shepard are that it's not an orbital
vehicle (it's a really big sounding rocket) and that it looks like a
penis (seriously, look at the thing with that outsized payload
fairing). If it was anyone else, New Shepard would be operational
now. But Blue Origin tests everything to within an inch of its life.

They also have a USAF deal for development of New Glenn for DoD
launches of heavy payloads, so that should help. They're currently
claiming New Glenn will be launching payloads in 2021. Meanwhile,
Musk is saying that Starship Mark I has at least a 60% chance of
orbital launches in 2020, which means that BFR as a first stage will
at least be available for test launches by then. Interesting times.
I'm a bit put out at what was essentially a 50 year hiatus in real
space flight development, though.


I imagine Blue Origin employees are feasting and getting fat on the the
money their sugar-daddy's providing. SpaceX wasn't as lavishly funded and
got a lot more done.


You read the Blue Origin site and they make much of New Glenn being
larger than any existing launch system, comparing to Falcon Heavy. The
difference, of course, is that Falcon Heavy is an operational launcher
and New Glenn is years away.


--
"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable
man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore,
all progress depends on the unreasonable man."
--George Bernard Shaw