On 04/02/2018 09:50, N_Cook wrote:
On 01/02/2018 08:45, N_Cook wrote:
On 31/01/2018 20:29, Martin Brown wrote:
On 31/01/2018 18:03, N_Cook wrote:
On 31/01/2018 16:17, Martin Brown wrote:
I = Inex ~29y and S = Saros ~18y
They are the fundamental periodicities that allow you to catalogue
eclipse cycles. It will be interesting to see if the strong tides this
year drive any climatic effects from deep ocean mixing.
http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent...ipsecycles.htm
Inex gives you an eclipse about the same longitude but opposite
latitude
and 3x Saros gives you about the same eclipse conditions in about the
same place on the Earth. Or for an overviews and better explanation
https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaro...riodicity.html
Ta for that, I'll let the local NOC academic oceanographers know, to
avoid too much head-scratching.
Â* Next stop Milankovitch cycles
Checking there was also a nice juicy total lunar eclipse in 1942 Mar 3
which is midway between the one you quoted and now (ie every 2I+S).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1942_lunar_eclipse
Any interesting tides observed back then?
[snip]
From one of the NOC experts on deep-sea oceanography
"I would be very surprised if the tides have any significant effect on
deep ocean mixing."
"tides" in this context referring the recent anomolous tides as
exemplified at Dover last week
I know it is out of fashion at the moment but I think the Keeling tides
paper PNAS 1997 August, 94 (16) 8321-8328 was actually onto something
(although some of the analysis is flawed and the MEM spectrum (fig 4) is
over fitted causing peak splitting of the 18y Saros peak to 15y & 21y.
They see a strong peak at 58y (2x Inex but fail to comment on it).
http://www.pnas.org/content/94/16/8321
My contention is that there is evidence in their analysis despite them
having removed a fair amount of the longer periodicities for tidal
forcing at 2xInex = 58 years. HADCRUT also shows periodic positive
excursions around 2000, 1940 and 1880 separated by about the Inex
period. You would also expect something at ~54 years which is a period
for about the same eclipse at about the same longitude and especially
when the eclipse is at or near perigee.
My email address is valid so if you would be kind enough to your NOC
expert to get in touch I would be interested to discuss with them why
they would dismiss the possibility of tidal forcing out of hand.
--
Regards,
Martin Brown