: [The one piece of space hardware we do not have is a
: transfer vehicle that would take us to the Moon and back to
: Earth. But with the hardware developed for the space
: station, and with a heavy-lift launch vehicle to put
: propellants in orbit, it should not be too hard or expensive
: to get an orbital transfer vehicle up and running.]

"not too hard or expensive" -- I can't help but chuckle.

: No firm cost estimates have been developed, but informal
: discussions have put the cost of a Mars expedition at nearly
: $1 trillion, depending on how ambitious the project was.

: [That is a ridiculous figure. Eighty billion or less is
: closer for a Mars base. The trillion dollar figure was
: derived using the space shuttle as the cargo carrier.
: That's why using the space shuttle to launch cargo is the
: road to failure. The project wouldn't even get off the
: drawing board because of the costs.]

When talking about spending, most of the time the government
lowballs. From local coverage here in Houston/JSC, there is already buzzing
about "stripping the cupboard" to pay for this new initiative. They aren't
too worried locally, cuz if it's manned JSC will be a major player -- but
a lot of people working on 'peripheral' (i.e. not manned) projects are
getting edgy. What about the big plans to explore the solar system (most
importantly probes to distant planets)? And suddenly a space station
doesn't seem important?
I agree with incremental improvements in manned systems, but I
don't think we've yet reached the limitations on much cheaper/safer/faster
unmanned missions that can expand our knowledge where we need it most
(including everywhere other than the moon and mars). I don't see any point
in sending people up to do work that could be done by machine -- and let's
face it in this day and age machines can do a *lot*. In 1969 just carrying
back a moon rock was phenomenal -- but we are past that now. The sophisticated
gear and vast data volumes are not likely to be analyzed by a space crew in
any case -- their role is mainly to make sure the gear is working and the
recorders are going. If you can automate that.... Specifically, if a man
landed on Mars, what could he/she do that the current rover can not or could
not do? Why pay an extra XXX billion just so a human can hold the camera?
It's a controversial subject, I know, but I believe that the heart
of exploration is gaining knowledge/data. Actual physical presence is just
a sometimes needed (sometimes not) adjunct. Of course, no plans are really
far enough along to criticize, but I don't think I'll be happy with just
sending someone there to "plant a flag" until we've exhausted our other
options.

regards,
----------------------------------------------------------






: The cost of a moon colony, again, would depend on what NASA
: wants to do on the lunar surface.




: [My guess is we could do a Moon mission for under $40
: billion and probably a lot less if we use the space hardware
: and infrastructure we already have in place. We could build
: the Moonbase for approximately $15 billion; four launches of
: a shuttle-derived heavy-lift cargo vehicle (to keep
: astronauts supplied for a full year on the Moon) would cost
: approximately $4 billion (on the high side) or less; and
: developing a lunar transfer vehicle would probably cost NASA
: $5 billion to develop (NASA is not very cost efficient They
: are a bureacracy, after all. ]



: end



: And why should we establish a base on the Moon? Well, for
: one thing, we could use a small percentage of the Moon's
: surface as a solar power farm that could harvest solar power
: and safely beam it back to Earth in the form of microwaves,
: where it would be converted to electricity for people on
: Earth. Such a farm has the potential to supply ALL the
: electricity needs of the Earth without polluting Earth's
: environment. What's it worth to eliminate all the
: coal-fired and nuclear reactors on Earth? Quite a bit, I
: would say. Helium 3 is also abundant on the Moon (scarce on
: Earth), which could be used to power non-polluting fusion
: reactors to supply electricity.


: As for the Mars exploration, I think we will almost
: certainly use one of Mars' two large moons, Phobos or Deimos
: as a staging base in advance of actually landing on Mars.
: This will reduce the risks and possibly the costs, since
: there may be raw materials on these Moons that we can use to
: our benefit, eliminating the necessity of sending so much
: cargo from Earth, and reducing the costs.


: The shuttle-derived, heavy-lift launch vehicle is the key
: to all of this. Without it, the costs will be too great.

: Every official commission that has studied the matter of
: Moon and Mars exploration over the last few decades has said
: a heavy-lift cargo vehicle is *essential* to the success of
: these endeavors.

: They are correct. The good news is we already have such a
: heavy-lift vehicle (with some minor alterations) in the
: space shuttle launch system. All we have to do is convince
: the powers that be at NASA to use this hardware and
: infrastructure. Maybe this time, they will listen.

: Yeah, I know, I'm an eternal optimist.


: TA