"Scott Ferrin" wrote in message
...

This week's AW&ST:

"Pressed by Congress for cost estimates on Bush's Moon/Mars
exploration plan, NASA releases some figures to back up its pretty but
imprecise "sand chart" that purports to demonstrate there's no hidden
cost "balloon" in the plan (AW&ST Jan. 26, p. 22). According to the
Library of Congress' Congressional Research Service, NASA assumes it
will cost $64 billion in Fiscal 2003 dollars to land humans on the
Moon in 2020. That amount includes $24 billion to build and operate
the proposed Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) through 2020, plus $40
billion in Fiscal 2011-20 to build and operate a CEV lunar lander. "



In fifteen years, GWB's idea will be long forgotten; just like his daddy's
is. George Bush 'Senior' said something *very* similar in 1989 at the 20th
anniversary celebrations of Apollo II. "This time to stay" he said. Now,
people don't even remember he said it, and it is _fifteen years ago this
year_.... Shame, really.

I call my idea "Five-by-Five" -

Five billion dollars a year; five years for research and development; five
years for prototype flying and initial landings (testing of equipment in
space and on the Moon to make sure it works 'as advertised') and for
uninterupted science; five years for industrial startup; five years for
change-over to commercial operations (after commercial organisations are
convinced of capabilities/profit margins) and then the five billion per year
is used to develop Mars operations at a similar pace.

20 years, little risk of failure and major chance of success. This means
that first human return to the Moon would be four to five years from green
light, not ten, fifteen, seventeen or whatever.

Once commercial operations begin on the Moon, there's no turning back.

Five billion is roughly what the Shuttle costs to operate (no suggesting
that STS/OSP be cancelled - quite the contrary as I feel it is a most
important program).

I hope you now know what I mean by "we".

Five billion is sweet FA for the U.S. government, considering the amount it
spends on the military (it's less that 1.5% of the current U.S defence
budget and wouldn't make that much of a dint there, either) and other
programs; hell, New Yorks MTA (public transport) has a budget of $7.5
billion a year! This money, however, would be in addition to the current
NASA budget. Not a large amount and quite easy to achieve in my opinion.
I've been working on an idea for about three years now and feel it's _just
about_ ready for public opinion.

Anyone interested can email me and I'll send them a copy; it runs to about
380ish kilobytes, including a couple of images. Both the size of the
document and the fact that it contains images precludes posting it here.
Emails will be sent individually to ensure privacy, but comments may be made
to the group if you wish. sci.space.policy might be more appropriate
however.
--
Alan Erskine
We can get people to the Moon in five years,
not the fifteen GWB proposes.
Give NASA a real challenge