"Kent Betts" writes:
I would even go farther and say that flying or not flying a Hubble mission
will not have a significant impact on the number of flights left in the
shuttle inventory. If we look at each mission and ask "Can we afford the
risk?" then I really have to wonder what is meant by "afford". I haven't
figured that out yet.

"Is a Hubble service mission worth the risk?" I don't think it is really a
valid question. If the science return is significant, then fly the mission.
The risk and danger part is a constant and applies equally to each mission,
and to me is not a separate factor that applies to a particular mission,
exempli gratia, is a truck load of canned corn worth a car wreck? The only
thing that matters is whether each flight is prepared as well as the techs
and engineers can do it. The astronauts know this and it would be well for
the rest of us to recognize it as well.

I liked the article. Unfortunately it mentions some trends without
trying to project along them at all. But the trends are important.

First, NASA should be able to say no because of risk reasons. It is
terrible that NASA has gotten pressured over the years to launch on
time whether or not it was safe. That was cited as a major underlying
reason for the Challenger crash: engineers were reporting problems but
the administration thought there was too much PR pressure to delay the
launch over it. Whether or not we agree with NASA, we certainly need
to let it use its own judgement on a technical matter.

Second, there needs to be more broad risk-reward analysis of this kind
Kent is talking about. Don't focus so much on an individual mission
that we forget about the overall cost of *periodic* missions to
Hubble. And of course, on the flip side, don't focus so much on risk
as a whole that we give up on space activity entirely! All in all the
issue is complicated and requires some careful analysis.

Does anyone know if NASA has published any of its own risk-reword
analysis? That would help clear up a lot of the discussions I see
happening.


-Lex