I just finished slogging through this opinion piece. In it, Mr Oberg
attempts to take the "broad view", and touches on a dizzying array of
important topics, including adjustments to NASA's attitude toward safety,
automated service missions, pressure on engineers due to time constraints,
the relative merit of Hubble vs. other missions, and partisan politics.

Whew.

So anyway here is the real deal. We have three shuttles left. If we lose
one (not loose one, dammit) in the first five flights, the Shuttle program
will either be cancelled or kept going.

I think the intelligent view is to level with chattering classes and tell
them that space flight is inherently dangerous. If you fly, you lose
vehicles. "We are going to fly the last three shuttles until they are
replaced by a newer model or until they are all destroyed" should be the
clear policy, stated in advance.

If you want some irony, here it is: No amount of effort put into making
Shuttle safer will have a marked effect on the overall reliability of the
system. If you think that the current efforts are intended to make the
shuttle safe, then you don't get it. Space flight is dangerous. We will
lose a few OSPs. The Russians will lose some Clippers.

I would even go farther and say that flying or not flying a Hubble mission
will not have a significant impact on the number of flights left in the
shuttle inventory. If we look at each mission and ask "Can we afford the
risk?" then I really have to wonder what is meant by "afford". I haven't
figured that out yet.

"Is a Hubble service mission worth the risk?" I don't think it is really a
valid question. If the science return is significant, then fly the mission.
The risk and danger part is a constant and applies equally to each mission,
and to me is not a separate factor that applies to a particular mission,
exempli gratia, is a truck load of canned corn worth a car wreck? The only
thing that matters is whether each flight is prepared as well as the techs
and engineers can do it. The astronauts know this and it would be well for
the rest of us to recognize it as well.