On 15/10/2011 9:04 AM, David Spain wrote:
David Spain wrote:
wrote:
this new
criteria will set the stage for a likely duel between Space
Exploration Technologies and its young Falcon 9 and the
United Launch Alliance's Atlas V and Delta IV vehicles,
which boast a record of 43 successes."

Once Falcon 9 establishes a track record, look at the fixed costs.
That will determine the winner.

Dave

That is of course, too simplistic. I don't expect ULA or any other
supplier to just sit still. If their fixed costs are too high they will
offer alternatives. They'll have to.

Dave

They may not be able to. They've been in the business so long with
these habits that it may be impossible for them to change.

If they can offer lower-cost alternatives, one must wonder why it has
taken 50 years to do so.