On Sunday, March 27, 2016 at 8:28:08 PM UTC+13, William Mook wrote:
On Sunday, March 27, 2016 at 12:38:23 PM UTC+13, William Mook wrote:
All those steps for a lunar base above can be carried out in 24 months of funding and will prove out the technology for a Mars base.within one synodic period of a return to the moon.
I have gone through the numbers for a Stulinger style Mars mission using a Falcoln heavy launcher. A lighter mission involving a single launch with a single capsule one way is possible in 24 months as well. Survival on Mars is the issue at that point.
A crewmember of typical size requires approximately 5 kg or 11 lb(total) of food, water, and oxygen per day to perform the standard activities on a space mission, and outputs a similar amount in the form of waste solids, waste liquids, and carbon dioxide.
The mass breakdown of these metabolic parameters is as follows:
0.84 kg of oxygen,
0.62 kg of food, and
3.52 kg of water
Using solar power water and oxygen are easily recovered. So we are talking 0.62 kg of food per day. Two people 500 days equal 620 kg of concentrate with air and water recycling. Waste accumulates as carbon in the system. That is used to fertilise Martian crops
The dragon capsule is designed for up to two years up to 7 people. Two people per capsule and three capsules per launch to a Mars transfer orbit one way is possible. That's $15 million per person. 3D printing and soil processing to build Martian homestead upon arrival is within reach.
This is the decade we will return to the moon and begin settlement of Mars.
They're not mutually exclusive. With a water resource on the moon we will settle on the moon as easily as Mars.
Population was reportedly 7.125 billion three years ago. today, population is reportedly 7.411 billion. This is an implied rate of population growth of 1.322% per annum. Over the next 10 years population will rise to 8.451 billions by 2026AD at this rate. At that time 12,745 people will be added to the human population each hour.
Removing 50,000 people per hour from Earth to colonies on Mars, the moon, and the major asteroids, will reduce human numbers permanently on Earth over an 18 year period, after which permanent population levels will be maintained at a low level as desired; in millions of people;
Year Earth Off World
2026 8,451.00 525.96
2027 8,036.76 1,068.86
2028 7,617.05 1,629.23
2029 7,191.79 2,207.65
2030 6,760.90 2,804.70
2031 6,324.32 3,420.97
2032 5,881.97 4,057.09
2033 5,433.77 4,713.69
2034 4,979.64 5,391.43 -- population off world exceeds Earth's.
2035 4,519.51 6,090.99
2036 4,053.30 6,813.08
2037 3,580.93 7,558.42
2038 3,102.30 8,327.76
2039 2,617.36 9,121.88
2040 2,126.00 9,941.56
2041 1,628.14 10,787.64
2042 1,123.71 11,660.96
2043 612.60 12,562.40 -- populaton on Earth below 1 billion.
2044 94.74 13,492.87 -- export rate collapses due to low population.
Compare this rate to air travel today;
http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pag...-12-06-01.aspx
Today, airlines carry 410,000 passengers per hour in 2015 and 165,400 passengers per hour over international routes. There are 3,825 wide body passenger aircraft and 1,026 wide body cargo aircraft. There are another 15,500 smaller aircraft owned by 800 scheduled airliners around the world.
So 50,000 per hour is less than 1/3rd the international traffic today and 1/8th the commercial airline travel today.
How will people be supported off world?
By automated AI that self replicates.
Self replicating machine systems will be used to transforms the environments of the moon, Mars and the major asteroids,
http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/selfRepNASA.html
Here are the materials available:
http://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/nlsc2008/pdf/2116.pdf
Mars 6.39x10^23 kg 6778 km diam 1.5237 AU 5.027 km/sec 14.1778 km depth = Ceres mass
Moon 7.34x10^22 kg 3474 km diam 1.000 AU 2.380 km/sec 3.1660 km/depth = Ceres mass
Ceres 8.95x10^20 kg 950 km diam 2.7675 AU 0.510 km/sec 1 Ceres Mass
Vesta 2.95x10^20 kg 525 km diam 2.3618 AU 0.360 km/sec 32.96% Ceres Mass
Pallas 2.10x10^20 kg 512 km diam 2.7716 AU 0.330 km/sec 23.46% Ceres Mass
Hygeia 8.67x10^19 kg 500 km diam 3.1421 AU 0.210 km/sec 9.68% Ceres Mass
It takes 69.6 doubling periods to grow from 1 kg mass to the Mass of Ceres. So, a 1 second doubling time using a controlled fusion reaction would take little more than a minute to complete the reaction!
There are 7 parts per billion of Lithium, and 7.5% of that total is the easily fissioned isotope Lithium-6 which forms an alpha particle and a tritium particle along with 4.8 MeV after absorbing a neutron. This tritium particle easily has sufficient energy to fuse with a deuterium nucleus to create another helium particle and a neutron again, releasing 17.6 MeV. This combination, called the Jetter Cycle and is aneutronic. This process is used to fuse other materials as well. D+T and D+D. Neutron flux can be used to fission Thorium or Uranium as desired as well, or cause Boron to undergo aneutronic fusion as well.
Hydrogen including deuterium is super-abundant compared to Lithium-6.
http://www.space.com/17680-giant-ast...pacecraft.html
Initiating a fusion reaction that reduces a well defined volume of material to elemental plasma, and then extracting materials from the plasma created in this way via time of flight mass spectrometry, and using additive manufacturing to re-assemble those materials into anything desired, is a process whereby self-replicating machines can quickly operate throughout these bodies to produce anything required of them.
This rapid transformation of lifeless objects to life bearing worlds was portrayed in a 1986 sci-fi film as follows;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NM1r37zIBOQ
Of course in addition to transforming the surface of a planet, the interior of the planet may be processed as well, and material ejected from the world to create large colonies in a parallel orbit around the Sun.
Here's the energy it takes to eject a kg off world
Mars: 25.2707 MJ/kg
Moon; 5.6644 MJ/kg
Ceres: 0.2601 MJ/kg
Vesta: 0.1296 MJ/kg
Pallas: 0.1089 MJ/kg
Hygeia:0.0441 MJ/kg
This all compares favourably with 15 MJ/kg to reduce materials to elemental atoms and recombine them.
Open air haibtats were first engineered in 1997 by Forrest Bishop
http://www.iase.cc/openair.htm
A square meter of colony masses 100,000 kg. So dividing this figure into the mass of Ceres results in 17.55 Earth areas, which are comprised of 2,723 colonies each about the area of India, or 3.29 million sq km each.
Mars, the Moon, Ceres, each have a grand total of 8,171 colonies which rise to 9,968 colonies when the major asteroids are added to the total. In 2044 AD total population at each colony is 1,353,620 persons each occupying 2.43 square kilometers of habitable area. 600 acres per person. An extended family of 13 persons would occupy an area equivalent to the Biltmore Estate.
http://www.smithsonianchannel.com/vi...e-estate/14380
Here's the break-down;
Mars: 2,723 colonies - in solar orbit 1.5237 AU
Moon: 2,723 colonies - in solar orbit around Earth Sol L1 & L2
Ceres: 2,723 colonies - in solar orbit 2.7675 AU
Vesta 897 colonies - in solar orbit 2.3618 AU
Pallas 639 colonies - in solar orbit 2.7716 AU
Hygeia 263 colonies - in solar orbit 3.1421 AU
Vis Viva equation gives us the velocity of objects in an orbit;
V =sqrt( 2/r - 1/a)
Where V is the velocity and r is the position of the object and a is the semi-major axis of the orbit. Now the Earth takes 1 year to travel around the sun in 1 AU with this formula. To convert to km/sec we need to know the length of a AU in kilometers and the number of seconds in a year. So we take the length of AU in km as the radius of a circle and calculate the circumference and divide that length by the number of seocnds in a year. This gives you the average speed of the Earth in km/sec - which is 29.785 km/sec.. This allows you to convert the values obtained for the transfer orbits from Earth to Mars and the asteroids.
A minimum energy orbit requires the following transfer times;
Mars - 259 days
Moon 4 days
Ceres 472 days
Vesta 398 days
Pallas 473 days
Hygeia 545 days
At constant 1 gee boost;
Mars 2.07 days to 4.54 days
Moon 3.75 hours
Ceres 3.80 days to 5.55 days
Vesta 3.34 days to 5.24 days
Pallas 3.81 days to 5.55 days
Hygeia 4.18 days to 5.82 days
The upper stage of the Falcon Heavy can put 16,000 kg into a Moon transfer velocity. Smaller amounts can be sent one way to the major asteroids, or to Mars, using the same stage, at the same cost.
We take a bit of astronomy, Kepler's laws, and the Vis Viva equation to determine delta vee as follows;
Mars
Semi-major Axis: 1.52370 AU
Transfer Orbit: 1.26185 AU
Transfer Time: 0.70870 Years
Transfer Time: 258.8712 Days
delta-V.......... 0.0989 Earth velocity
delta V.......... 2.9448 km/sec
Surface dV.... 11.5807 km/sec
Mars Velocity 0.8101 Earth Velocity
Velocity at Mars 0.7212 Earth Velocity
dV at Mars..... 0.0889 Earth Velocity
dV at Mars..... 2.6490 km/sec (atmospheric braking)
Ceres
2.7675
1.7675
1.1749
429.1521
0.1976
5.8853
12.6521
0.6011
0.3961
0.2050
6.1060
Vesta
2.3618
1.3618
0.7946
290.2299
0.1250
3.7238
11.8028
0.6507
0.3354
0.3153
9.3913
Pallas
2.7716
1.7716
1.1790
430.6462
0.1981
5.9016
12.6597
0.6007
0.3964
0.2043
6.0837
Hygeia
3.1421
2.1421
1.5676
572.5741
0.2382
7.0951
13.2582
0.5641
0.4119
0.1522
4.5337
Knowing that we can now use the Tsiolkovsky rocket equation to determine useful payloads to each body;
Body................... Moon Mars Ceres Vesta Pallas Hygeia
Surface DV........... 10.85 11.5807 12.6521 11.8028 12.6597 13.2582
Orbital Velocity..... 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90
dV..................... 2.95 3.6807 4.7521 3.9028 4.7597 5.3582
Exhaust Velocity.. 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55
Propellant fraction 0.56 0.65 0.74 0.67 0.74 0.78
Total Weight........ 64.00 64.00 64.00 64.00 64.00 64.00
Propellant weight 36.12 41.31 47.22 42.68 47.25 49.85
Inert Weight........ 27.88 22.69 16.78 21.32 16.75 14.15
Stage Dry Weight.. 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00
Useful Load........ 16.88 11.69 5.78 10.32 5.75 3.15
Escape Velocity.... 2.380 5.027 0.510 0.360 0.330 0.210
Excess dV.......... 0.000 2.649 6.106 9.391 6.084 4.5337
dV..................... 2.380 0.300 6.127 9.398 6.093 4.539
Exhaust Velocity.... 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55
Propellant fraction 0.49 0.08 0.82 0.93 0.82 0.72
Propellant weight 8.25 0.95 4.75 9.59 4.71 2.27
Useful Load........ 8.63 10.75 1.03 0.73 1 .03 0.88
So a Falcon Heavy, can send 16,800 kg to the moon, and 11,690 kg to Mars, 5,780 kg to Ceres, 10,320 kg to Vesta, 5,750 kg to Pallas and 3,150 kg to Hygeia.
We can then use the escape velocity plus rocket equation again to determine delta vee to settle an object softly on the surface of these worlds. At Mars we use aerobraking and have very little delta vee to cancel. For airless bodies like the Moon and the asteroids, we have to carry a significant amount of propellant to land on these bodies. So, this is why the Falcon heavy can send more payload to Mars than the Moon.
A 500 kg self-replicating machine system that makes use of materials on each of these bodies transforms them along the lines described earlier.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NM1r37zIBOQ
We then send more advanced vehicles back to Earth to retrieve native plant and animal species. There are 2891 billion tons of living biomass on Earth's land area. Another 309 billion tons of living biomass in Earth's oceans (according to revised estimates - this is based on the amount of carbon divided by 19.87% which is the average elemental carbon content of living systems). This is 6,274.5 kg per square meter. About 6.3 tons per square meter. Air totals 10.0 tons per square meter. Soil and water totals 20.0 tons per square meter. Structure 67.7 tons per square meter.
When cultivated in an appropriate environment life systems have the potential of doubling every three months. When cultivated as cells, cell cultures have the potential to double every three days. This comes from the fact that cell cultures don't have to waste energy growing roots, leaves, seeds and so forth. Nutrients can be synthesized directly to feed cell cultures, as well as plants and animals.
http://www.theatlantic.com/technolog...dustry/401177/
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chemistry-r...cratch-1492170
So, nearly 10,000 space colonies each the size of India are produced on these worlds in a matter of days, once payloads arrive at each location. Overall, 64.24 Earth areas are constructed and must be filled with natural living systems to replicate Earth fully.
We start with seed stocks, which double every three months when cultivated by AI. Overall, 205.6 trillion tons of biomass must be grown. Starting with 205,600 tons of biomass spread across over 8.5 million species, and then cultivating them to create a natural setting in balance;
ANIMALS - 7.77 million species (of which 953,434 have been described and cataloged)
PLANTS - 298,000 species (of which 215,644 have been described and cataloged)
FUNGI - 611,000 species (of which 43,271 have been described and cataloged)
PROTOZOA - 36,400 species (single-cell organisms with animal-like behavior, such as movement, of which 8,118 have been described and cataloged)
CHROMISTS - 27,500 species (including, brown algae, diatoms, water molds, of which 13,033 have been described and cataloged)
There are 23,000 varieties of trees. They take years to develop. However, seeds mass less than a gram, and can grow into trees massing tons over the years. Thousands of seeds are produced by a tree after one or two seasons.. So, despite these logistical limitations, in the right environment, even something as difficult and long term to grow to maturity as trees can double their numbers and biomass in short time periods, when properly cultivated.
It takes 29.898 doubling periods to grow by a factor of 1 billion. That is from 205,600 tons to 205.6 trillion tons of materials. With four doubling periods per year this means it will take 7.475 years to bring the colonies to fruition. Prior to that time, cell cultivation and direct synthesis will be required to support natural growth and living conditions.
3d printed natural analogues are also possible to quickly populate a region that is awaiting natural ecology to recover.
http://www.desamanera.com/blog/19/en...tive-solutions
This same process is used - with 4d printing (utility fog) to create synthetic forests that are gradually replaced with natural forests.
Prior to this time, the same approach to self-replicating machine systems is used on Earth to produce a 'world city' people are welcome to live in prior to the deployment of off world colonies.
So, to export 525.96 million people per year for 18 years, we must start in 2020 AD to develop the colonies involved. In 2020 AD human numbers will be 7.81 billion. Building a city this size in the center of the Gilbert Desert of Australia, with the same density as Monaco, implies an area 763 km in diameter, South of Alice Springs in the Northern Territory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xu_elkk3hx8
Here, you basically dig a channel from the Great Australia Bight from the South, the Arafura Sea from the North, the Tasman Sea from the East to create a spiral that permits basically a 223,143 km long channel that surrounds a 223,143 km long peninsula that supports 7.81 billion residents in the lap of automated luxury.
From here they depart for the off-world colonies under development, after learning all the things they need to learn the habits of the new lifestyle afforded them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpSJh1EqeUQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JModZfnVAv4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc66-uEkEBk
Transport is through an automated drone tail sitter that operates at 600 kph. So, it takes 38 minutes to fly from the rim to the city center. A world city.
You call a vehicle with your cell phone, with GPS activated. You have already indicated your destination in the navigation app. Very similar to navigation apps today, like Google Maps or Uber.
http://www.techlicious.com/tip/best-navigation-apps/
An available vehicle lands in an approved spot nearby, and flashes your name over the doorway as your cell phone directs you to the vehicle. Your cell phone acts as an electronic key that opens the door as your approach. You get in and the door closes as the vehicle ascends and takes you to your destination. It lands and you leave the craft. The craft is available for another trip for another party immediately.
To avoid collisions the system flies vertically until it clears the highest ground obstacle. It then accelerates, moving North at increasing speed with altitude. When it reaches a horizontal speed of 600 kph, it then changes direction with altitude, going from a bearing of 0 (North) to 90 (East) to 180 (South) to 270 (West) to 0 again (North) at it climbs in altitude. This means that all vehicles are moving at the same speed in the same direction at each altitude. It is also child's play for the computer on board to calculate a path that takes you directly to the point you wish to land at, after navigating to and from the required altitude.
At two gees take off acceleration it takes 17 seconds to achieve a speed of 600 kph (166.7 m/sec) covering a distance of 1,447.2 meters. At 330 meters, the aircraft begins heading North along an arc as it accelerates. The cabin tilts to maintain gee forces through the floor despite the accelerations. It takes 30 seconds to achieve the altitude and heading desired for the flight. It takes another 30 seconds for the aircraft to come to a landing the desired destination. It takes 6 seconds to cover 1 km once at altitude.
Space Colonies
Each of the nearly 10,000 space colonies is an open air cylinder 2,000 km in diameter and 525 km wide. A strip of land 6,283 km long by 525 km wide. Each has 120 km tall walls with no roof. Over 3.3 million sq km of habitable surface area massing 330 trillion tons.
Each has a mirror that concentrates sunlight to a point where it is used to run a solar pumped laser, and mostly redirected by an optical system that reproduces the day-night cycle found on Earth. The size of the primary mirror depends on the location of the colony in the solar system - and are as follows for a 2,000 km diameter rim that's 525 km wide;
Earth Orbit: 876.2 km Mirror Diameter
Mars Orbit: 1,335.2 km Mirror Diameter
Ceres Orbit: 2,425.1 km Mirror Diameter
Vesta Orbit: 2,069.6 km Mirror Diameter
Pallas Orbit: 2,428.7 km Mirror Diameter
Hygeia Orbit: 2,753.4 km Mirror Diameter
The disk orbits with its spin axis pointing to the sun. A thin film mirror focuses the sunlight to the center of rotation. There a secondary mirror broadcasts the light across 180 degrees of the rim. Half the rim is in darkness. Half is in light. The lit area rises in brightness from 0 to a peak of 1000 Watts/2 at the center of the 180 degree arc, and then back to 0 - along a cosine curve. The central mirror which spins with the rim, achieves this focus spins around once every 24 hours relative to the rim.
To maintain 1 gee on the rim interior the rim moves at 3,131.54 m/sec to maintain a one gee acceleration radially outward through the rim. Every 33 minutes 26.4 seconds the rim completes one rotation. Letting the central projector drift around the rim every 24 hours reproduces the the day night cycle of Earth.
The illumination system also powers a sun pumped laser that beams energy anywhere its needed around the rim for any industrial purpose whatever. In addition, self replicating machine systems powered by compact aneutronic fusion energy systems, provide power when needed as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZn5k8_my_o